Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

[JonathanBelles]

isnt this the day that arlene formed last year?

[Dean4Storms]

Holy! If this is right then the TX/LA border may be the target! The good news,however, is that this also shows a very weak system (though I doubt that would be the case on this track).

No, see the word trough up over LA? That would pick the storm up and turn it NE around the back of that Atlantic Ridge.

But according to this graphic, it would still be moving NW. Also, that trof looks to be a bit inland...it probably wouldn't have an affect until after landfall.

Another much stronger trough is expected to drop down into the northern GOM by Thur., this trough will begin to turn that NNW movement around to the east, the GFS, GFDL, CMC all reflect it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm not buying into the western GOM scenario no longer. Several reasons, the CMC has been on this from the get go and has been most consistant with a northern to eastern GOM track evidently picking up the trough late next week swinging down into the NW Gulf which is more the specialty of the CMC, Secondly, the other models began depicting TC development out in the EPAC with this low, then it came eastward into the BOC and now the latest runs have come more in line with most of the others bringing a system up into the northern GOM. Third, this system does not appear to be moving westward, if anything it appears to be slightly drifting northward and I'll even add a fourth. We've had this trough in the UL in the east now for weeks and with another to come it would only make sense that a TC forming in the south GOM would get picked up.

Are we looking at the same models? because most of the tropical models are saying otherwise:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/al90models.gif

You said it, tropical models, check the GFDL which runs off a combination. Tropical models don't reflect mid lattitude troughs to well if at all most of the time.

yeah, tropical models, meaning that they are used to forecast where a tropical system will go. The system we are monitoring is tropical, thus tropical models probably have the best handle. Also, the GFS and GFDL initialized the low too far east, so I would take their predicted track and move it 50-150 miles west.

[28_Storms]

This looks like Arlene #2

[Ivanhater]

ahh, I have missed these debates, brings back memories

[Extremeweatherguy]

(Image snipped)

Holy! If this is right then the TX/LA border may be the target! The good news,however, is that this also shows a very weak system (though I doubt that would be the case on this track).

No, see the word trough up over LA? That would pick the storm up and turn it NE around the back of that Atlantic Ridge.

But according to this graphic, it would still be moving NW. Also, that trof looks to be a bit inland...it probably wouldn't have an affect until after landfall.

Another much stronger trough is expected to drop down into the northern GOM by Thur., this trough will begin to turn that NNW movement around to the east, the GFS, GFDL, CMC all reflect it.

This graphic is for Monday though. I think this will have reached land (at the speed the graphic shows) well before Thursday. This is assuming their graphic even becomes correct. For all we know, this may end up being wrong.

[cycloneye]

isnt this the day that arlene formed last year?

Yes on June 9th.

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005

...SHIP REPORT INDICATES TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS BECOME TROPICAL
STORM ARLENE...THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 SEASON...

AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE CITY OF HAVANA AND
HAVANA PROVINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO HAVANA PROVINCE...INCLUDING THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT
185 MILES... 295 KM...WEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 190 MILES...
305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING
THE CENTER NEAR WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT.

A REPORT FROM A SHIP BETWEEN THE CENTER OF ARLENE AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS INDICATES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
...240 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...IS SPREADING ACROSS THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ARLENE.

MOISTURE FLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO ARLENE IS PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PARTICULARLY
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...19.1 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Dean4Storms]

Watch the trough come sweeping down here in this GFDL animation and most of the energy goes off the mid-Atlantic coast with the high coming in behind down from the plainsand you will see what I'm saying......


http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

[HurricaneHunter914]

Arlene was ugly though.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Watch the trough come sweeping down here in this GFDL animation and most of the energy goes off the mid-Atlantic coast with the high coming in behind down from the plainsand you will see what I'm saying......


http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

I see it, and if this model run is accurate, then you will be right, but I would not base everything off of a single model run. Earlier today the GFDL had this thing going into the BOC and Mexico.

[CHRISTY]

Watch the trough come sweeping down here in this GFDL animation and most of the energy goes off the mid-Atlantic coast with the high coming in behind down from the plainsand you will see what I'm saying......


http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

yep thats the trough the GFDL has been sayin will drop down in a couple of days.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Arlene was ugly though.

yeah, and it looked like she weakened a lot right as she made landfall. I believe that top gusts in the western panhandle were only around 50-60mph.

[Dean4Storms]

Holy! If this is right then the TX/LA border may be the target! The good news,however, is that this also shows a very weak system (though I doubt that would be the case on this track).

No, see the word trough up over LA? That would pick the storm up and turn it NE around the back of that Atlantic Ridge.

But according to this graphic, it would still be moving NW. Also, that trof looks to be a bit inland...it probably wouldn't have an affect until after landfall.

Another much stronger trough is expected to drop down into the northern GOM by Thur., this trough will begin to turn that NNW movement around to the east, the GFS, GFDL, CMC all reflect it.

This graphic is for Monday though. I think this will have reached land (at the speed the graphic shows) well before Thursday. This is assuming their graphic even becomes correct. For all we know, this may end up being wrong.

No, where they have the L is where they expect it using a model consensus come Monday (72hr.) and then they split the hairs moreso with the X for Tues. But I expect that X to move a little more eastward come tomorrow.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I think it comes to show that now most of the models are starting to agree on a Panhandle hit.

[Extremeweatherguy]

(Image snipped)

Holy! If this is right then the TX/LA border may be the target! The good news,however, is that this also shows a very weak system (though I doubt that would be the case on this track).

No, see the word trough up over LA? That would pick the storm up and turn it NE around the back of that Atlantic Ridge.

But according to this graphic, it would still be moving NW. Also, that trof looks to be a bit inland...it probably wouldn't have an affect until after landfall.

Another much stronger trough is expected to drop down into the northern GOM by Thur., this trough will begin to turn that NNW movement around to the east, the GFS, GFDL, CMC all reflect it.

This graphic is for Monday though. I think this will have reached land (at the speed the graphic shows) well before Thursday. This is assuming their graphic even becomes correct. For all we know, this may end up being wrong.

No, where they have the L is where they expect it using a model consensus come Monday (72hr.) and then they split the hairs moreso with the X for Tues. But I expect that X to move a little more eastward come tomorrow.

yeah, but you are saying the trof is not due until Thursday. Wouldn't Monday and Tuesday still be way to early?

[Ivanhater]

Arlene was ugly though.

yeah, and it looked like she weakened a lot right as she made landfall. I believe that top gusts in the western panhandle were only around 50-60mph.

ya, many of us "rode" her out right on the beach. More of a party atmosphere around here for Arlene

[JonathanBelles]

I think it comes to show that now most of the models are starting to agree on a Panhandle hit.

figures i come to Ny and Florida gets a hit

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think it comes to show that now most of the models are starting to agree on a Panhandle hit.

I think I will just go ahead and post these again:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/al90models.gif

yes, the GFDL, GFS and Canadian are (as well as a few others)...but still, many more are predicting a western path.

[Dean4Storms]

Watch the trough come sweeping down here in this GFDL animation and most of the energy goes off the mid-Atlantic coast with the high coming in behind down from the plainsand you will see what I'm saying......


http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

I see it, and if this model run is accurate, then you will be right, but I would not base everything off of a single model run. Earlier today the GFDL had this thing going into the BOC and Mexico.

It is not just the GFDL, the UKMET, the GFS, CMC all have this trough coming down. It is basically simple that if you have a front dropping down into the GOM any TC will get picked up, especially one that far north.

[rockyman]

Please try to "snip" large maps out of your replies...the TAFB map has been posted 7 times so far on this thread. Thanks!