Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thanks- and this thing better stay away from me.... I'm am enjoying the sunshine...but a few afternoon showers would be nice to water the dry lawn- I want rainshowers...not a tropical system.

[Ivanhater]

thanks- and this thing better stay away from me.... I'm am enjoying the sunshine...but a few afternoon showers would be nice to water the dry lawn- I want rainshowers...not a tropical system.

I hear ya, I'm doing sprinkler systems for my summer job and rain would be nice!

[Aquawind]

[wxman57]

Thanks. Very low shear for the GOM is forecast in 48 hr.

But high shear over the disturbance near the Yucatan at 48 hrs.

[TS Zack]

Thanks Paul....

I hate you! What is that, go to Florida!

[Ivanhater]

Oh God, it's gonna hit the fan when you post an image like that

[Dean4Storms]

I'm not buying into the western GOM scenario no longer. Several reasons, the CMC has been on this from the get go and has been most consistant with a northern to eastern GOM track evidently picking up the trough late next week swinging down into the NW Gulf which is more the specialty of the CMC, Secondly, the other models began depicting TC development out in the EPAC with this low, then it came eastward into the BOC and now the latest runs have come more in line with most of the others bringing a system up into the northern GOM. Third, this system does not appear to be moving westward, if anything it appears to be slightly drifting northward and I'll even add a fourth. We've had this trough in the UL in the east now for weeks and with another to come it would only make sense that a TC forming in the south GOM would get picked up.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Holy! If this is right then the TX/LA border may be the target! The good news,however, is that this also shows a very weak system (though I doubt that would be the case on this track).

[Aquawind]

It's premature eformulation yet Zack so there are still plenty of options..

[JonathanBelles]

so ive been in the air all day fill me in

[Stratosphere747]

I must be getting old...

Used to think that we actually had to have a system to track possible landfall targets...

[Opal storm]

I'm not buying into the western GOM scenario no longer. Several reasons, the CMC has been on this from the get go and has been most consistant with a northern to eastern GOM track evidently picking up the trough late next week swinging down into the NW Gulf which is more the specialty of the CMC, Secondly, the other models began depicting TC development out in the EPAC with this low, then it came eastward into the BOC and now the latest runs have come more in line with most of the others bringing a system up into the northern GOM. Third, this system does not appear to be moving westward, if anything it appears to be slightly drifting northward and I'll even add a fourth. We've had this trough in the UL in the east now for weeks and with another to come it would only make sense that a TC forming in the south GOM would get picked up.

Good points.You're right,CMC is what started this whole thing and it has been very persistent with a FL panhandle/Big Bend landfall.

[Dean4Storms]

Holy! If this is right then the TX/LA border may be the target! The good news,however, is that this also shows a very weak system (though I doubt that would be the case on this track).

No, see the word trough up over LA? That would pick the storm up and turn it NE around the back of that Atlantic Ridge.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm not buying into the western GOM scenario no longer. Several reasons, the CMC has been on this from the get go and has been most consistant with a northern to eastern GOM track evidently picking up the trough late next week swinging down into the NW Gulf which is more the specialty of the CMC, Secondly, the other models began depicting TC development out in the EPAC with this low, then it came eastward into the BOC and now the latest runs have come more in line with most of the others bringing a system up into the northern GOM. Third, this system does not appear to be moving westward, if anything it appears to be slightly drifting northward and I'll even add a fourth. We've had this trough in the UL in the east now for weeks and with another to come it would only make sense that a TC forming in the south GOM would get picked up.

Are we looking at the same models? because most of the tropical models are saying otherwise:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/al90models.gif

[max]

It's premature eformulation yet Zack so there are still plenty of options..

Exactly!

[Ivanhater]

This better not be Arlene take 2

[Extremeweatherguy]

Holy! If this is right then the TX/LA border may be the target! The good news,however, is that this also shows a very weak system (though I doubt that would be the case on this track).

No, see the word trough up over LA? That would pick the storm up and turn it NE around the back of that Atlantic Ridge.

But according to this graphic, it would still be moving NW. Also, that trof looks to be a bit inland...it probably wouldn't have an affect until after landfall.

[Aquawind]

so ive been in the air all day fill me in

We have a large low pressure area over the Yukatan that is expected to go anywhere from BOC/Mex - FL.. The models started west and adjusted a tad east but we have no LLC over water so it's wide open.. Steering is weak obviously. The map above depicts a low in the central GOM..and were waiting..lol

[Dean4Storms]

I'm not buying into the western GOM scenario no longer. Several reasons, the CMC has been on this from the get go and has been most consistant with a northern to eastern GOM track evidently picking up the trough late next week swinging down into the NW Gulf which is more the specialty of the CMC, Secondly, the other models began depicting TC development out in the EPAC with this low, then it came eastward into the BOC and now the latest runs have come more in line with most of the others bringing a system up into the northern GOM. Third, this system does not appear to be moving westward, if anything it appears to be slightly drifting northward and I'll even add a fourth. We've had this trough in the UL in the east now for weeks and with another to come it would only make sense that a TC forming in the south GOM would get picked up.

Are we looking at the same models? because most of the tropical models are saying otherwise:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/al90models.gif

You said it, tropical models, check the GFDL which runs off a combination. Tropical models don't reflect mid lattitude troughs to well if at all most of the time.

[Extremeweatherguy]

so ive been in the air all day fill me in

We have a large low pressure area over the Yukatan that is expected to go anywhere from BOC/Mex - FL.. The models started west and adjusted a tad east but we have no LLC over water so it's wide open.. Steering is weak obviously. The map above depicts a low in the central GOM..and were waiting..lol

Most of the important models are still west, however:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/al90models.gif

And the GFDL and GFS have initialized the low way to far east in the 18Z runs.