Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

[Jim Cantore]

18z GFDL:

The GFDL also initializes too far east.

where do you guys get those maps?

[Extremeweatherguy]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902006) ON 20060609 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060609 0000 060609 1200 060610 0000 060610 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.9N 88.2W 18.3N 88.0W 18.7N 88.4W 19.5N 89.5W
BAMM 17.9N 88.2W 18.1N 88.4W 18.3N 89.0W 18.7N 89.9W
A98E 17.9N 88.2W 18.5N 88.1W 19.2N 88.3W 20.7N 87.8W
LBAR 17.9N 88.2W 18.6N 88.3W 19.8N 88.8W 21.4N 89.7W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 25KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060611 0000 060612 0000 060613 0000 060614 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.8N 90.7W 23.3N 92.4W 24.9N 92.7W 26.2N 92.0W
BAMM 19.6N 90.8W 21.7N 92.2W 23.2N 93.0W 24.1N 94.5W
A98E 22.0N 88.2W 23.8N 88.4W 25.6N 87.3W 28.5N 81.9W
LBAR 23.4N 90.7W 27.4N 90.2W 29.0N 85.8W 30.2N 80.8W
SHIP 43KTS 51KTS 51KTS 46KTS
DSHP 31KTS 39KTS 39KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.9N LONCUR = 88.2W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 17.3N LONM12 = 88.1W DIRM12 = 351DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.8N LONM24 = 88.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


I post this only for information but dont take the initial positions as a stone as there is no defined LLC.

wow. the ship model has this thing all the way up to 51knots in 72 hours.

[rockyman]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

[rockyman]

00z tropical models (hit "refresh" if not showing as 0048z)

[clfenwi]

(model output snipped by clfenwi to save space)

wow. the ship model has this thing all the way up to 51knots in 72 hours.

That isn't taking into account any of the dissipative effects from being over land. For that you have to look at DSHP.

[rockyman]

For what it's worth, the 18z "model consensus" (uses Canadian, GFDL, GFS, and NOGAPS):

[whereverwx]

Wow, there's a lot of dry air.

[ronjon]

If it takes a track like Gert,I doubt we will see anything more than a T.D.

actually, according to JB, if this thing goes west (rather than east) then there is a higher chance of it being stronger.

That makes sense. Later the shear is expected to increase again in the northern GOM from that trough that's coming. So there would be a weak pocket of shear down in the BOC, not to mention the SST's across the NGOM are still only marginally favorable to sustain a hurricane.

Actually two pretty good models turn it to the NE - the 18Z GFS and 18Z GFDL.

And ronjon, that brings up a very good point - if two of the best models agree on something completely different than what they had been forecasting, especially on an intermediate run, then think about what data's been inputed. We'll see if this trend continues in the 0Z runs.

Of course the wild card is that if this system gets strong and deep quickly the steering currents would tend to turn it more to the right.

Very good points about the initializations for both the GFS and GFDL. They may indeed be too far east or they may be right on target. We simply don't know yet. Obviously if the LLC were to develop in the BOC its probably a much different path. However, if it develops on the east side of the Yucatan, then a slow N or N-NW drift with a turn to the NE is probable looking at how the GFS is timing the trough moving into the mid-atlantic. Now, tomorrow the trough strength or timing could change and they'll be a different solution. Consistent path in most of the models is what I look for. We're not there yet. I will say that the much maligned CMC predicted this path 3 days ago. It'll change over the next few days I'm sure.

[Opal storm]

Wow, there's a lot of dry air.

Wow,I thought conditions in the Gulf were favorable for development.

[CHRISTY]

Wow, there's a lot of dry air.

i stayed this earlier....it might kill it.

[Ivanhater]

but the trough is lifting out, should take the dry air with it

[Jim Cantore]

I did Arlene in, only 1 year ago Sunday

[ronjon]

The trough that is driving the dry air south into the GOM will be lifting out to the NE this weekend making the GOM more favorable for development into early next week.

[Jim Cantore]

We still have a few days so it might by then

[rockyman]

Model consensus (with different ensemble members) is practically unchanged from 12 hours ago (6z run), showing a run toward the Fla Big Bend:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/consensus/fcst/archive/06060806/15.html#track

[skysummit]

Wow, there's a lot of dry air.

Wow,I thought conditions in the Gulf were favorable for development.

No....not right now....72 hours from now.

[CHRISTY]

Wow, there's a lot of dry air.

Wow,I thought conditions in the Gulf were favorable for development.

No....not right now....72 hours from now.

there might not much left

[CHRISTY]

This is a great close up visible loop of 90L
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_CARIBWIDE/anim8vis.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

wow--- I'm gone for two days from s2k now we have an invest...in the Caribbean

[Ivanhater]

wow--- I'm gone for two days from s2k now we have an invest...in the Caribbean

welcome back tampa