Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

[Scorpion]

The shear is supposed to be near nonexistant in the GOM in 48-72 hours.

[Jim Cantore]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm not to confident on this yet

[Weatherfreak000]

Actually, conditions are probably the best they can be for Alberto if it's a Gert like track. I see people aren't acknowledging the fact wxman has been proclaiming this thing will likely make it into the BOC as well.


But hey if the LBAR says so MY GOSH, watch out guys she's coming!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I still think southern TX for tonight (but this will likely change many times over the next few days).

[Dean4Storms]

GFDL..........

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[ronjon]

Actually, conditions are probably the best they can be for Alberto if it's a Gert like track. I see people aren't acknowledging the fact wxman has been proclaiming this thing will likely make it into the BOC as well.


But hey if the LBAR says so MY GOSH, watch out guys she's coming!

Actually two pretty good models turn it to the NE - the 18Z GFS and 18Z GFDL.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Actually, conditions are probably the best they can be for Alberto if it's a Gert like track. I see people aren't acknowledging the fact wxman has been proclaiming this thing will likely make it into the BOC as well.


But hey if the LBAR says so MY GOSH, watch out guys she's coming!

Actually two pretty good models turn it to the NE - the 18Z GFS and 18Z GFDL.

we'll see if this trend is still there after 2-3 more runs and then I might buy into it.

[rockyman]

Hmm...the GFDL "loses" the storm in the middle of the Gulf..but the storm continues moving toward the a landfall over the eastern Fla Panhandle

Check out this frame...the "storm centered" track gets left behind in the Gomex while the system continues to intensify and move north:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=084hr

[Ivanhater]

ugh. I dont like what some of the models are showing

[wxmann_91]

If it takes a track like Gert,I doubt we will see anything more than a T.D.

actually, according to JB, if this thing goes west (rather than east) then there is a higher chance of it being stronger.

That makes sense. Later the shear is expected to increase again in the northern GOM from that trough that's coming. So there would be a weak pocket of shear down in the BOC, not to mention the SST's across the NGOM are still only marginally favorable to sustain a hurricane.

Actually two pretty good models turn it to the NE - the 18Z GFS and 18Z GFDL.

And ronjon, that brings up a very good point - if two of the best models agree on something completely different than what they had been forecasting, especially on an intermediate run, then think about what data's been inputed. We'll see if this trend continues in the 0Z runs.

Of course the wild card is that if this system gets strong and deep quickly the steering currents would tend to turn it more to the right.

[Jim Cantore]

I just looked at the NOGAPS run, its not picking this up

[beachbum_al]

So another words this could go anywhere! I think I will wait and see before getting all excited but it is interesting to see what is going on. Plus I should be doing laundry. (laughing at the laundry issue)

[rockyman]

Has anyone explained why GFS initialized near the Nic/Hond border?

[Extremeweatherguy]

has anyone noticed that convection has exploded over the Yucatan recently?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

There is no signs of this system fading over land...and it actually looks like the center may be trying to develop more NW.

[wxmann_91]

I just looked at the NOGAPS run, its not picking this up

NOGAPS tends to be conservative with TC development. The fact that most Globals are picking this up (from what I've heard, I haven't checked anything besides the GFS) should be a good sign that development could occur. Though not certain, the chances are pretty good for at least a TD out of this.

has anyone noticed that convection has exploded over the Yucatan recently?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

There is no signs of this system fading over land...and it actually looks like the center may be trying to develop more NW.

The shear is providing very good UL divergence and the mtns. in MX may be providing additional lift. With daytime heating, its not really surprising. It has been shown that land (the same goes with shear up to 25 kt) has very little effect on developing systems.

[ronjon]

Hmm...the GFDL "loses" the storm in the middle of the Gulf..but the storm continues moving toward the a landfall over the eastern Fla Panhandle

Both the GFS and GFDL weaken the storm in the east-central GOM. Probably due to increasing shear and marginal SSTs. This time of year the odds are pretty low for much more than a tropical storm or minimal hurricane to develop. I haven't been sold on any landfall yet because we don't even have a LLC established over water yet. But, as of today, the synoptic pattern now favors more of a northward and then northeastern turn with latitude in the GOM. This path isn't too far from climatological history if it develops off the NE tip of the Yucatan. The west coast of Florida is most vunerable to early and late season storms.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Has anyone explained why GFS initialized near the Nic/Hond border?

lol. that is a good question. The low is actually much further NW...so may be the GFS track is also too far east.

[rockyman]

18z GFDL:

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z GFDL:

The GFDL also initializes too far east.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902006) ON 20060609 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060609 0000 060609 1200 060610 0000 060610 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.9N 88.2W 18.3N 88.0W 18.7N 88.4W 19.5N 89.5W
BAMM 17.9N 88.2W 18.1N 88.4W 18.3N 89.0W 18.7N 89.9W
A98E 17.9N 88.2W 18.5N 88.1W 19.2N 88.3W 20.7N 87.8W
LBAR 17.9N 88.2W 18.6N 88.3W 19.8N 88.8W 21.4N 89.7W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 25KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060611 0000 060612 0000 060613 0000 060614 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.8N 90.7W 23.3N 92.4W 24.9N 92.7W 26.2N 92.0W
BAMM 19.6N 90.8W 21.7N 92.2W 23.2N 93.0W 24.1N 94.5W
A98E 22.0N 88.2W 23.8N 88.4W 25.6N 87.3W 28.5N 81.9W
LBAR 23.4N 90.7W 27.4N 90.2W 29.0N 85.8W 30.2N 80.8W
SHIP 43KTS 51KTS 51KTS 46KTS
DSHP 31KTS 39KTS 39KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.9N LONCUR = 88.2W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 17.3N LONM12 = 88.1W DIRM12 = 351DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.8N LONM24 = 88.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


I post this only for information but dont take the initial positions as a stone as there is no defined LLC.