Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

[cycloneye]

Maybe the threads would not grow so fast if we didnt have 2 posts on everypage talking about how long the thread is?

Ditto that.

[ROCK]

I think the track will eventually look more like this:

That would be best case scenario for the US. Poor Mexico though. They got hammered last year in that same area. How many was it? 4 storms counting Emily.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2006060818-invest90l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

new gfdl animation for you folks.

in case you missed my post... also here is the site which I get the graphic model outputs if anyone is interested.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

[CHRISTY]

i think this thing could end up anywere.

[max]

Maybe the threads would not grow so fast if we didnt have 2 posts on everypage talking about how long the thread is?

That's a very good point. There sure are a lot of posts talking about how many posts there are.

Ok, now I'm REALLY going eat!

Thanks for your great informaton!

Hurry back or else you will miss a whole 2 pages or more full lol .

[CHRISTY]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2006060818-invest90l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

new gfdl animation for you folks.

in case you missed my post... also here is the site which I get the graphic model outputs if anyone is interested.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

there are some models that have it turning NE eventually.

[Jim Cantore]

Man, we're already 3 pages on this thread and it hasnt even been an hour, just shows how on edge and pumped that we all are.

[stormtruth]

I'm hungry too but I'm enjoying reading the posts. I think it may take a day or two for this to develop like others have said.

[TS Zack]

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 55W...
INTERESTING FEATURE THIS EVENING IS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS COVERING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND A GOOD PORTION OF
CUBA WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER BELIZE.
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
OVER GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE... NICARAGUA...
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL CUBA. SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER. OF NOTE...
THE NW CARIBBEAN IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THIS
REGION. THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS RUNS FROM THE SE U.S. INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE LIES TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 23N63W WITH UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE BASIN EAST
OF 70W...GENERATING BY THE UPPER RIDGE.


Its over land, no need to worry right now. Everyone is watching the covection which is part of the surface trough that extends from the low pressure.

Calm Down. Can we go an hour without making a page or two

[max]

I'm hungry too but I'm enjoying reading the posts. I think it may take a day or two for this to develop like others have said.

I get unhungry when hurricane season starts.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think this will end up north of Gert's track

[max]

I think this will end up north of Gert's track

Why do you say that?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think this will end up north of Gert's track

Why do you say that?

Because the low over Belize should move northward before emerging. I think it will emerge more on the NW tip of the Yucatan and then may be take a similar track to Gert (but 100-200 miles further north). My best guess for a landfall spot right now is probably Brownsville, TX.

[Jim Cantore]

The Sun is going down on the Visible on day one of the Invest 90L circus

[max]

I think this will end up north of Gert's track

Why do you say that?

Because the low over Belize should move northward before emerging. I think it will emerge more on the NW tip of the Yucatan and then may be take a similar track to Gert (but 100-200 miles further north). My best guess for a landfall spot right now is probably Brownsville, TX.

That could be bad for oil prices if that happens.

[Opal storm]

If it takes a track like Gert,I doubt we will see anything more than a T.D.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Any possibilty of rain from this thing reaching North Texas down the road...? Seems like most of the models are predicting either a Mexico track or a N GOM track, which puts Texas right in the middle...

[Extremeweatherguy]

If it takes a track like Gert,I doubt we will see anything more than a T.D.

actually, according to JB, if this thing goes west (rather than east) then there is a higher chance of it being stronger.

[Opal storm]

If it takes a track like Gert,I doubt we will see anything more than a T.D.

actually, according to JB, if this thing goes west (rather than east) then there is a higher chance of it being stronger.

I find that hard to believe since it won't have much time to strengthen before it hits Mexico.If it moves more north it would be stronger IMO.

[TS Zack]

A gert like track would not allow this thing to get all that strong. Less time over water and only marginally favorable upper-level winds. If it goes towards Houston, then conditions may become more favorable with time, not to mention a lot more time over water.