Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

[wxman57]

Very low shear. I see no reason for this not to form.

It'll be over land for the next 48 to 72 hours. That's one reason. After that, it has a chance in the BoC or SW GoM.

wxman check out the latest GFDL run

doesn't look like a mexico landfall to me on those models.

You have to know what you're looking at CHRISTY. Some of those plots aren't even models. One is the extrapolated track (dotted line). The Yellow one is a climatology track (NHCA98E). The purple track is LBAR - one of the worst models to use for tropical systems. And the bright green line is the deep-layer BAM (best used for strong hurricanes south of 20N). Take a look at a plot with more of the tropical models. Now you might notice that the BAMS (shallow-layer BAM) takes it into Mexico. That model is fairly simplistic, but it does look at the proper steering level.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/al90models.gif

[drezee]

I believe it was initialized with no forward speed. The previous run had a NW component to the movement. That may explain the movement to the S.

[SouthFloridawx]

I only posted that graphic to show the newest run on the GFDL not to point out the other models.

[wxman57]

I only posted that graphic to show the newest run on the GFDL not to point out the other models.

The GFDL does often have a great deal of difficulty with systems lacking a core. I wouldn't put too much stock in it until something does develop.

Think we can get to thread 5 in the next hour?

[ROCK]

I've always wondered, and feel free to explain '57 or any other pro-met, how a model initializes any system that has yet to form a closed circulation?

they are going on the lowest pressure obs Im sure. IMO, way to broad of a low to pinpoint a center just yet.

[CHRISTY]

JB says there are 2 possible landfall locations one being florida and the other being the western gulf.

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

I feel this is going to develop quickly after it re-emerges into the Gulf of Mexico in about 36-48 hours. The subtropical jet will send it rightward and push the system - now Alberto - towards central Florida. Due to favorable conditions, I bring it up to a 70 mph storm - just under hurricane intensity - in about 90 hours. After it weakens over Florida (moving very quickly), the shear over the eastern US catches up to it and dissipates it.

[Yankeegirl]

I just love the first chance of a storm in the season!! Everyone is sooo ready to go... and the tropics room is just always full pf people... Its great, welcome back hurricane season!! Nice to see everyone back!!!

[SouthFloridawx]

086
WHXX04 KWBC 082329
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 8

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.7 88.1 355./ 5.0
6 17.1 87.8 155./ 7.4
12 16.7 87.8 193./ 3.9
18 16.6 87.7 122./ 1.3
24 16.7 86.9 83./ 8.0
30 16.8 86.7 78./ 1.9
36 16.7 86.2 91./ 4.7
42 17.3 86.2 358./ 5.3
48 19.2 85.7 16./20.1
54 21.8 86.5 343./26.9

STORM DISSIPATED AT 54 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[CHRISTY]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

I feel this is going to develop quickly after it re-emerges into the Gulf of Mexico in about 36-48 hours. The subtropical jet will send it rightward and push the system - now Alberto - towards central Florida. Due to favorable conditions, I bring it up to a 70 mph storm - just under hurricane intensity - in about 90 hours. After it weakens over Florida (moving very quickly), the shear over the eastern US catches up to it and dissipates it.

i think that seems possible.

[wxman57]

I think the track will eventually look more like this:

[jaxfladude]

lol already 4 threads on this invest! at this rate there will be 30 or more before it even really starts to develop! lol

All times are US EDT:
Thu Jun 08, 2006 5:10 pm to Thu Jun 08, 2006 7:35 pm

That is all it took for Thread #3 to reach 10 pages....yikes if and WHEN a named system develops....a new thread every 1/2 hour if that....

[cycloneye]

Think we can get to thread 5 in the next hour?

Maybe a little more than an hour give or take depending of the information that is posted.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

new gfdl animation for you folks.

[Aquawind]

LOL... oh man.. that is just to opposing..

[skysummit]

WXman57...I have to agree with you. There's just no way it can move east or northeast. Upper level winds do NOT steer these systems.

[chadtm80]

Maybe the threads would not grow so fast if we didnt have 2 posts on everypage talking about how long the thread is?

[wxman57]

Think we can get to thread 5 in the next hour?

Maybe a little more than an hour give or take depending of the information that is posted.

Well, as I'm not expecting much to happen until maybe Sunday night/Monday, I'm going have dinner and watch TV. Might have to work this weekend to finish up our hurricane season preparations. Have a new web site to finish up before any storm is named and really need about 2 more weeks.

[Scorpion]

Wow...interesting GFDL. Practically kills the storm before landfall though.

[wxman57]

Maybe the threads would not grow so fast if we didnt have 2 posts on everypage talking about how long the thread is?

That's a very good point. There sure are a lot of posts talking about how many posts there are.

Ok, now I'm REALLY going eat!