Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

[drezee]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85395



Thread #1

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85410



Thread #2

http://storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85418



Thread #3


Invest 90L: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[SouthFloridawx]

Quoting HybridStorm

[JamesFromMaine2]

lol already 4 threads on this invest! at this rate there will be 30 or more before it even really starts to develop! lol

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Thanks. Very low shear for the GOM is forecast in 48 hr.

[Jim Cantore]

Is this part of the remnents of 2-E?

[JPmia]

dogs and cats are begining to sleep together....

here is a bit of trivia: I looked at a map of all tracks in the month of June from 1851 to 2005 and indeed it appears that a large concentration storms track from this area north to the E GOM and then NE toward FL West coast and out to sea; Must point out though that there have been many storms during this time period that have hit anywhere from Mex. all the way to the FL pandhandle... this is not a forecast but an observation that proved my assumption that more storms form near texas/mex. and landfall there at this time of year.

JPMia bingo - I agree 100%

Sorry, I just don't see any low-level steering heading to Florida. Sheared storms southwest of Cuba, maybe, but not Invest 90L near Belize. And shear is too strong north of Cuba for development.

Oh, I don't disagree with your analysis...I just did some reserach to check out where the majority of storms form this time of year and their average tracks. I actually think your analysis is right on track. ----This 10 thread thing is quite annoying.

[Scorpion]

Very low shear. I see no reason for this not to form.

[wxman57]

Here are the latest model plots again from my post in thread 3. Fairly good consensus WNW into Mexico except for the deep-layer BAM and worthless LBAR.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/al90models.gif

By the way, this 10-page limit is quite ridiculous. I was trying to reply to another post and the thread was locked when I hit "Submit". When there's real action out there I can see an entire web page of nothing but 10 page groupings of a single thread.

[HURAKAN]

Someone said that there will be 40 pages before the system is upgrated. Well, we already have 31 pages and the system remain as organized as it was in page one!!!

[CHRISTY]

Here are the latest model plots again from my post in thread 3. Fairly good consensus WNW into Mexico except for the deep-layer BAM and worthless LBAR.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/al90models.gif

wxmann57 dont you think there some chance another center will from?this is still very disorganized.

[wxman57]

Very low shear. I see no reason for this not to form.

It'll be over land for the next 48 to 72 hours. That's one reason. After that, it has a chance in the BoC or SW GoM.

[SouthFloridawx]

Very low shear. I see no reason for this not to form.

It'll be over land for the next 48 to 72 hours. That's one reason. After that, it has a chance in the BoC or SW GoM.

wxman check out the latest GFDL run

[CHRISTY]

Very low shear. I see no reason for this not to form.

It'll be over land for the next 48 to 72 hours. That's one reason. After that, it has a chance in the BoC or SW GoM.

wxman check out the latest GFDL run

doesn't look like a mexico landfall to me on those models.

[wxman57]

Here are the latest model plots again from my post in thread 3. Fairly good consensus WNW into Mexico except for the deep-layer BAM and worthless LBAR.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/al90models.gif

wxmann57 dont you think there some chance another center will from?this is still very disorganized.

Nope, not to the northeast. That's a frontal wave being carried NNE by the jet stream. It may develop a low center in the Atlantic in a few days, but it's not going to be a tropical low.

Just keep watching the southern Yucatan. There is a tropical wave approaching from the east that should cause a flare-up in storms down south by tomorrow. That area will drift west into the BoC. That's where to watch.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I just hope it doesn't go into the North-Central Gulf. That would really suck

[CHRISTY]

Here are the latest model plots again from my post in thread 3. Fairly good consensus WNW into Mexico except for the deep-layer BAM and worthless LBAR.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/al90models.gif

wxmann57 dont you think there some chance another center will from?this is still very disorganized.

Nope, not to the northeast. That's a frontal wave being carried NNE by the jet stream. It may develop a low center in the Atlantic in a few days, but it's not going to be a tropical low.

Just keep watching the southern Yucatan. There is a tropical wave approaching from the east that should cause a flare-up in storms down south by tomorrow. That area will drift west into the BoC. That's where to watch.

look at the new GFDL!

[storm4u]

i hope the new gfdl isnt a trend!!

[Stratosphere747]

I've always wondered, and feel free to explain '57 or any other pro-met, how a model initializes any system that has yet to form a closed circulation?

[CHRISTY]

I've always wondered, and feel free to explain '57 or any other pro-met, how a model initializes any system that has yet to form a closed circulation?

thats true.

[ROCK]

Here are the latest model plots again from my post in thread 3. Fairly good consensus WNW into Mexico except for the deep-layer BAM and worthless LBAR.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/al90models.gif

By the way, this 10-page limit is quite ridiculous. I was trying to reply to another post and the thread was locked when I hit "Submit". When there's real action out there I can see an entire web page of nothing but 10 page groupings of a single thread.

Good consensus, yes, but without a LLC they can't really initialize a center just yet. Just got to get this thing to separated from the front and let the shear die down before we really see something form.