Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[gatorcane]

looks like the entire mess is being blown closer and closer to FL.....

I think we'll see some cloudy skies for much of this week and some good rainfall across the peninusla.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I agree depends where the Center is once it is in the Gulf, and then starts to get it's act together.

[CHRISTY]

I don't see it coming into Florida.

why?explain.nobody knows were this thing is going to end up.but i will see this if the trough that is suppose to drop down is strong enough it might cause it to turn towards the NE.remember timeing here is everything.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Well that's where hurricanes at this time of year mostly go, not to mention that most of the models take this Invest into Florida. I hope this invest comes to Florida though so we can get some rain.

[ROCK]

Just by looking at the latest vis, it seems to me that when this blob does consolidate with a LLC it might be farther north than where the lowest pressure is currently (inland Belize area). Yes, I am jumping on the GFS bandwagon and going with a FL threat. Strong TS or weak Cat 1. Just speculating of course like everyone else....

[wxmann_91]

Hopefully by tomorrow we will be able to locate a definite center.

Thanks for the graphic. The sheared storms over the Yucatan indicate that shear is still too unfavorable for development.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8sht-1.GIF

You can say that again.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just remember...the first likely target (especially before an official center is named) is usually never where the storm ends up.

[wxman57]

The models that are taking this disturbance to the north then northeast are using upper-level winds for steering. But that's not where to look for a low-level disturbance. You need to look much lower for steering currents. Here are the latest model plots. Note that the only tropical models taking the disturbance northward are the BAMD (DEEP layer BAM0 and LBAR (worthless Limited BARatropic). All the other models that look at lower-level steering are quite clustered into Mexico.

It's not the thunderstorm area just southwest of Cuba that needs to be watched. That area WILL track northeast and up the frontal boundary then out to sea. Watch the area near Belize move westward toward the BoC.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/al90models.gif

[JPmia]

signing in all. Wow. What a big mess in the Caribbean - this is going to be a long season - anything change in 2 hours since I have been gone?

dogs and cats are begining to sleep together....

here is a bit of trivia: I looked at a map of all tracks in the month of June from 1851 to 2005 and indeed it appears that a large concentration storms track from this area north to the E GOM and then NE toward FL West coast and out to sea; Must point out though that there have been many storms during this time period that have hit anywhere from Mex. all the way to the FL pandhandle... this is not a forecast but an observation that proved my assumption that more storms form near texas/mex. and landfall there at this time of year.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/archive/wg8sht-1.GIF

You can say that again.

but you can see that it is decreasing (dotted lines).

[CHRISTY]

Just by looking at the latest vis, it seems to me that when this blob does consolidate with a LLC it might be farther north than where the lowest pressure is currently (inland Belize area). Yes, I am jumping on the GFS bandwagon and going with a FL threat. Strong TS or weak Cat 1. Just speculating of course like everyone else....

thats also my thinking a trough is suppose to drop down in a few days were this thing is when the trough comes down will determine were it will go.weak steering currents right now.

[gatorcane]

dogs and cats are begining to sleep together....

here is a bit of trivia: I looked at a map of all tracks in the month of June from 1851 to 2005 and indeed it appears that a large concentration storms track from this area north to the E GOM and then NE toward FL West coast and out to sea; Must point out though that there have been many storms during this time period that have hit anywhere from Mex. all the way to the FL pandhandle... this is not a forecast but an observation that proved my assumption that more storms form near texas/mex. and landfall there at this time of year.

JPMia bingo - I agree 100%

[CHRISTY]

The models that are taking this disturbance to the north then northeast are using upper-level winds for steering. But that's not where to look for a low-level disturbance. You need to look much lower for steering currents. Here are the latest model plots. Note that the only tropical models taking the disturbance northward are the BAMD (DEEP layer BAM0 and LBAR (worthless Limited BARatropic). All the other models that look at lower-level steering are quite clustered into Mexico.

It's not the thunderstorm area just southwest of Cuba that needs to be watched. That area WILL track northeast and up the frontal boundary then out to sea. Watch the area near Belize move westward toward the BoC.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/al90models.gif

wow after seeing that it might not even survive the trip across into mexico.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The models that are taking this disturbance to the north then northeast are using upper-level winds for steering. But that's not where to look for a low-level disturbance. You need to look much lower for steering currents. Here are the latest model plots. Note that the only tropical models taking the disturbance northward are the BAMD (DEEP layer BAM0 and LBAR (worthless Limited BARatropic). All the other models that look at lower-level steering are quite clustered into Mexico.

It's not the thunderstorm area just southwest of Cuba that needs to be watched. That area WILL track northeast and up the frontal boundary then out to sea. Watch the area near Belize move westward toward the BoC.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/al90models.gif

It looks like the center may be reforming in the northern Yucatan peninsula currently...do you agree? If so, what would be the change in the track?

[wxman57]

dogs and cats are begining to sleep together....

here is a bit of trivia: I looked at a map of all tracks in the month of June from 1851 to 2005 and indeed it appears that a large concentration storms track from this area north to the E GOM and then NE toward FL West coast and out to sea; Must point out though that there have been many storms during this time period that have hit anywhere from Mex. all the way to the FL pandhandle... this is not a forecast but an observation that proved my assumption that more storms form near texas/mex. and landfall there at this time of year.

JPMia bingo - I agree 100%

Sorry, I just don't see any low-level steering heading to Florida. Sheared storms southwest of Cuba, maybe, but not Invest 90L near Belize. And shear is too strong north of Cuba for development.

[JPmia]

dogs and cats are begining to sleep together....

here is a bit of trivia: I looked at a map of all tracks in the month of June from 1851 to 2005 and indeed it appears that a large concentration storms track from this area north to the E GOM and then NE toward FL West coast and out to sea; Must point out though that there have been many storms during this time period that have hit anywhere from Mex. all the way to the FL pandhandle... this is not a forecast but an observation that proved my assumption that more storms form near texas/mex. and landfall there at this time of year.

JPMia bingo - I agree 100%

i should correct that and say DISPROVE my assumption that most storms at this time of year form closer to Tex/Mex. and landfall there.

[drezee]

Nice close up

[wxman57]

It looks like the center may be reforming in the northern Yucatan peninsula currently...do you agree? If so, what would be the change in the track?

Nope, not at all. You're looking at an upper-level feature on satellite. Just a frontal wave moving off to the northeast. It's a decoy. That area most likely won't develop as it's moving into a high-shear environment.

[JamesFromMaine2]

The models that are taking this disturbance to the north then northeast are using upper-level winds for steering. But that's not where to look for a low-level disturbance. You need to look much lower for steering currents. Here are the latest model plots. Note that the only tropical models taking the disturbance northward are the BAMD (DEEP layer BAM0 and LBAR (worthless Limited BARatropic). All the other models that look at lower-level steering are quite clustered into Mexico.

It's not the thunderstorm area just southwest of Cuba that needs to be watched. That area WILL track northeast and up the frontal boundary then out to sea. Watch the area near Belize move westward toward the BoC.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/al90models.gif

wow after seeing that it might not even survive the trip across into mexico.

It currently doesn't have a central core that could be disrepted during its crossing. it should be just fine going across IMO!