Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[jasons2k]

jdray....I don't know if everyone in Florida would love that path. If the GFS is correct on location and timing, and the shear forecasts are correct for that same time, this system could actually get going a little.

You can't say where its going when it hasn't even formed yet.

Max, you are exactly correct.

Remember Cindy last year? The models can and will change significantly until the center reforms (if it does) once it's back over the Gulf.

Geez...I guess I learned a lesson about not Quoting another poster. My post was in response to another member. I was NOT saying where it was going.

...and yes js, the models will change signifigantly since there is absolutely nothing to originate on right now.

Sky...it's the others that aren't reading what others are saying. I know you were replying to jdray. You said his name in your reply.

My apologies. Truthfully I didn't read sky's post very carefully. I was really just agreeing with what Max had posted. Sorry for any confusion.

[canegrl04]

This season is cranking up early like 2005

[wxboy222]

Disclaimer:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'd say 40 % chance of developing. Likely a strong tropical storm hitting the mid Texas coast Tuesday-Wedensday next week

[cheezyWXguy]

i think if the shear weakens enough and it spends enuf time or the BOC/GOM we could see a weak cat 1 on the TX coast (not a prediction)

[Scorpion]

I am thinking stronger and further west, probably TX or LA. A hurricane is within the range of possibilities IMO.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is what JB from accuweather thinks will happen:

He says that everything is in line for development of this system starting Sunday (once away from the Yucatan). He says after development, we will probably see it meander with an uncertain path (and we could be dealing with this even a week from now). In the end, his two potential paths are toward Florida or toward the western Gulf (depending on where the low emerges from the Yucatan and it's speed). He says that if it moves into the western Gulf, there is a chance of stronger development than if it moved east. He also hints in his post that there may be another storm threat around June 20th.

[whereverwx]

Hopefully by tomorrow we will be able to locate a definite center.

[cycloneye]

Hopefully by tomorrow we will be able to locate a definite center.

Looking at that loop the most turning is overland at Yucatan.

[CHRISTY]

Here is what JB from accuweather thinks will happen:

He says that everything is in line for development of this system starting Sunday (once away from the Yucatan). He says after development, we will probably see it meander with an uncertain path (and we could be dealing with this even a week from now). In the end, his two potential paths are toward Florida or toward the western Gulf (depending on where the low emerges from the Yucatan and it's speed). He says that if it moves into the western Gulf, there is a chance of stronger development than if it moved east. He also hints in his post that there may be another storm threat around June 20th.

My goodness another storm threat in june that would be 2.but we first need alberto to form which seems like a pretty good bet to me giving time .

[SouthFloridawx]

I see some pretty darn weak steering currents in the 500mb range. We're gonna have to wait for something to push this thing either way. If the trough erodes the ridge then we can expect a more north/northeasterly track of this large area of low pressure. If the trough is not strong enough to erode the ridge then we'll see a more west/northwest track. First we'll have to see what happens when it emerges into the GOM. IMO

18Z GFS indicates a Ridge but a little farther than to allow it to move west.



72 Hour GFS indicates a "LOW" Near the florida coast being pushed North/North NorthEast



I guess it's all timing as to when it emerges and what features would steer it. Also what kind of wind shear are we going to have over this system?

[gatorcane]

signing in all. Wow. What a big mess in the Caribbean - this is going to be a long season - anything change in 2 hours since I have been gone?

[CHRISTY]

Hopefully by tomorrow we will be able to locate a definite center.

Looking at that loop the most turning is overland at Yucatan.

once it moves away from the ucatan we may have some good development going on.

[HurricaneHunter914]

The center in my opinion will probably relocate under the convection. Even though many people will disagree with me it probably will.

[SouthFloridawx]

Hopefully by tomorrow we will be able to locate a definite center.

Looking at that loop the most turning is overland at Yucatan.

It's a pretty broad area of turning. Thanks for the graphic calamity.

[gatorcane]

looks like some models trending into FL west coast - this doesn't surprise me......

72 Hour GFS has approaching the Tampa area - too early to say though we need to keep monitoring these models.

[jaxfladude]

Welcome lots of rain(not the flash flooding kind), unwelcome high winds(gale force and above) and high surge and the other whatnots..........

[Scorpion]

I don't see it coming into Florida.

[gatorcane]

if the center relocates it will be a close call.

[Extremeweatherguy]

looks like some models trending into FL west coast - this doesn't surprise me......

72 Hour GFS has approaching the Tampa area - too early to say though we need to keep monitoring these models.

I would agree that the 18Z GFS is more toward Florida, but it is not toward Tampa. It looks like it takes it toward the panhandle region.

[wxwatcher91]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056
19.87 N 85.06 W (19°52'27" N 85°03'33" W)
Conditions at 42056 as of
2150 GMT on 06/08/2006:
Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 17.5 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in