Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[CHRISTY]

capeverdewave the GFS is forcasting a trough to come down in a couple of days.

The trough could bypass the system as the Texas ridging slowly builds in out over the western to west-central Gulf. Also, with such weak steering currents currently in place, the system's main low and some of the convection may drift before slowly moving and getting shunted to the northwest, west, or west-northwest. It all depends on the synoptics, timing, position, and similar intertwined related factors.

its all about timeing.....thats the name of the game.yep

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the 18Z NAM-WRF at 78 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_078l.gif

[Dean4Storms]

It is a broad area of low pressure, so a centralized low could form almost anywhere the convection remains the most persistant in this situation.

[CHRISTY]

i dont know but until we have a good fix on the LLC iam not really paying attention to these models.

[Wnghs2007]

hmmmm....wonder what the GFS is trying to do....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _030.shtml

[Rainband]

It's broad right now. Like I said Dennis is good. I realize he is only ONE met but like I said he was point on last year.

[Alacane2]

Afternoon Discussion from Mobile


.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS COMING TOGETHER A
LITTLE BETTER IN LONG TERM PERIOD WITH REGARDS TO POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWESTERN GULF. APPEARS THAT IF
ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP...MOVEMENT WOULD BE TOWARD THE GULF COASTS
OF MEXICO OR TEXAS. CONSENSUS PER HPC EXTENDED DISCUSSION CALLS FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT... LEANING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...AND THIS IS
WHAT WE HAVE FOLLOWED. APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE
PERIOD...COMBINED WITH MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE GULF
SYSTEM...SHOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART
OF THE WEEK. /12

&&

.MARINE...WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CREATE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SYSTEM POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVER
THE SWRN GULF OF MX WILL MEANDER NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH EFFECTS STARTING TO
SHOW OVER MS/AL/NW FL COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF
INCREASED SWELL. GOING WITH THE PREREQUISITE GFS FORECAST THAT HAS
THIS SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS TEXAS WESTERN LOUISIANA COAST.
ORGANIZATION STILL QUESTIONABLE DUE TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION LEVEL WINDS AFFECTING MARINE SECTION OF
THE FA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL OF THIS IS AT THE END OF
THE MARINE FORECAST TIME PERIOD...SO HAVE TRIED NOT TO GO OFF THE
DEEP END WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. BUT AS PREVIOUS SHIFT
SAID...WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF WHAT CAN EUPHEMISTICALLY BE
CALLED AN "UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN" OVER THE GULF WATERS. 16/12

[Extremeweatherguy]

hmmmm....wonder what the GFS is trying to do....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _030.shtml

still looks like a broad low in 30 hrs. Remember, however, that the 18Z GFS is usually one of the most unreliable runs.

[Opal storm]

i dont know but until we have a good fix on the LLC iam not really paying attention to these models.

I agree.

[whereverwx]

I think the center is around this area.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the center is around this area.

yes, it is on the SW side of that circle.

[Dean4Storms]

Dennis phillips said if anything thing forms it likely wont be much and it will most likely move ene and south of Florida It will increase our rain chances

He said what?

He must be burping up his own models and overall synoptics then cause that scenario ain't out there currently.

[cycloneye]

I think the center is around this area.

Hey,Calamity,that circle is big as it covers a big area.If you can do it a smaller one could be better to the members to pinpoint what you are circuling.

[Rainband]

Dennis phillips said if anything thing forms it likely wont be much and it will most likely move ene and south of Florida It will increase our rain chances

Believe me, if this thing develops it is not going to go ENE and south of Fl. Dennis Phillips obviously disagrees with every computer model, the NHC/TPC, and probably 90% of the pro mets out there if he is making that kind of claim. The good news, however, is that moisture will likely be increased over Fl as this system moves off to the NW.

First of all Calm down Breath. The models don't have a LLC to initalize, until that happens..anything could happen. I thought the last thing TX or LA needed was another system. Seems like this would have been good news to most.

[benny]

hmmmm....wonder what the GFS is trying to do....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _030.shtml

still looks like a broad low in 30 hrs. Remember, however, that the 18Z GFS is usually one of the most unreliable runs.

unreliable? you have any documentation of this claim? there is no major difference in skill by any of the model runs of the GFS according to EMC

[Stratusxpeye]

I think the center is around this area.

Hey,Calamity,that circle is big as it covers a big area.If you can do it a smaller one could be better to the members to pinpoint what you are circuling.

Sarcasm guys! IMO This is what he meant. In another words it could be anywhere I'm pretty sure on this anyway. He can correct me if I'm wrong please.

[CHRISTY]

guys this situation will slowly evolve over night and in the coming days.the thing to keep in mind is were the LLC is finally really located then to me we can can have a better idea were it might go.till then to me its anyones guess.

[benny]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

new GFS is farther north and east.. that is interesting...

[Extremeweatherguy]

hmmmm....wonder what the GFS is trying to do....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _030.shtml

still looks like a broad low in 30 hrs. Remember, however, that the 18Z GFS is usually one of the most unreliable runs.

unreliable? you have any documentation of this claim? there is no major difference in skill by any of the model runs of the GFS according to EMC

No, I do not have documentation. This is just something I have heard many, many times on storm2k. I supposedly uses old information instead of using fresh information (or something like that). Can somebody else help me on this?

[CHRISTY]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_036l.gif

new GFS is farther north and east.. that is interesting...

yea benny somthing tells me this will eventually move NE.