Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[skysummit]

Wow TWC didn't even mention this,though im not really surprised.

They probably didn't log onto S2K today. They'll catch up....

[hicksta]

First it has to make it threw the yucatan in tact. Then it has to reorganize its center. Then maybe we can have an idea of where it will be going. But as of now most of the models are worthless. If the GFDL/GFS are pointing to the western gulf over the other models that arent really good with tropics. Id go with the western gulf on this one. But we will have to wait a day or two to have a good guess on where she will be heading.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Christy I agree. I think a low will form in the NW Caribbean and get pushed NE into the West Coast of Florida or maybe the panhandle. The system will move north slowly for a few days and then a trough will come down and shove it NNE and then NE - cuz it is June and that is what typically happens.

[Opal storm]

Wow TWC didn't even mention this,though im not really surprised.

there tropical update is at 50 min pass every hour.

Yes I saw the tropical update about an hour ago and they didn't even mention the chance for development.

[White Cap]

Wow TWC didn't even mention this,though im not really surprised.

Not surprising. It is as though they don't want to create media hype until the thing is right upon us, then they create panic. Even the local news stations do the same thing. The Friday before Katrina hit, they were blowing it off and saying "nothing to worry about...it is going to Florida". The next morning it was suddenly panic time!

[gatorcane]

Looks like the Winds in the Florida Keys are veering more to the South and increasing slightly today in response to our developing system.

Key West Summary:

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 4 PM (20) Jun 08 86.0 (30.0) 73.0 (22.8) 29.9 (1012) SSE 12
3 PM (19) Jun 08 87.1 (30.6) 75.0 (23.9) 29.91 (1012) SSE 10
2 PM (18) Jun 08 87.1 (30.6) 69.1 (20.6) 29.9 (1012) ESE 8
1 PM (17) Jun 08 87.1 (30.6) 69.1 (20.6) 29.92 (1013) ESE 7
Noon (16) Jun 08 86.0 (30.0) 72.0 (22.2) 29.94 (1013) ESE 12
11 AM (15) Jun 08 86.0 (30.0) 73.9 (23.3) 29.95 (1014) ESE 10
10 AM (14) Jun 08 84.9 (29.4) 75.0 (23.9) 29.95 (1014) SE 9
9 AM (13) Jun 08 84 (29) 73 (23) 29.95 (1014) ESE 8
8 AM (12) Jun 08 82 (28) 73 (23) 29.93 (1013) E 7
7 AM (11) Jun 08 82.0 (27.8) 73.9 (23.3) 29.91 (1012) ESE 7
6 AM (10) Jun 08 81.0 (27.2) 73.0 (22.8) 29.9 (1012) E 7
5 AM (9) Jun 08 82.0 (27.8) 73.0 (22.8) 29.89 (1012) ESE 9
4 AM (8) Jun 08 82.0 (27.8) 73.0 (22.8) 29.9 (1012) E 8
3 AM (7) Jun 08 82.0 (27.8) 73.0 (22.8) 29.9 (1012) ESE 10
2 AM (6) Jun 08 82.0 (27.8) 73.0 (22.8) 29.93 (1013) ESE 10
1 AM (5) Jun 08 82.0 (27.8) 73.0 (22.8) 29.94 (1013) ESE 13
Midnight (4) Jun 08 82.9 (28.3) 73.0 (22.8) 29.95 (1014) ESE 13
11 PM (3) Jun 07 82.9 (28.3) 73.9 (23.3) 29.93 (1013) E 12
10 PM (2) Jun 07 82.9 (28.3) 73.9 (23.3) 29.93 (1013) E 8
9 PM (1) Jun 07 82.9 (28.3) 72.0 (22.2) 29.93 (1013) E 12
8 PM (0) Jun 07 84.0 (28.9) 72.0 (22.2) 29.91 (1012) ESE 12
7 PM (23) Jun 07 84.9 (29.4) 73.0 (22.8) 29.89 (1012) E 8
6 PM (22) Jun 07 86.0 (30.0) 73.0 (22.8) 29.9 (1012) ESE 10
Oldest 5 PM (21) Jun 07 86.0 (30.0) 72.0 (22.2) 29.91 (1012) ESE 10

[CHRISTY]

First it has to make it threw the yucatan in tact. Then it has to reorganize its center. Then maybe we can have an idea of where it will be going. But as of now most of the models are worthless. If the GFDL/GFS are pointing to the western gulf over the other models that arent really good with tropics. Id go with the western gulf on this one. But we will have to wait a day or two to have a good guess on where she will be heading.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Christy I agree. I think a low will form in the NW Caribbean and get pushed NE into the West Coast of Florida or maybe the panhandle. The system will move north slowly for a few days and then a trough will come down and shove it NNE and then NE - cuz it is June and that is what typically happens.

true there's always that chance it will get ripped apart.

[max]

Storm2k forums are a lot better than Zack's forums in my opinion! I will be here from now on because no one can beat Storm2k forums. There 100 times better than any other weather forum.

[gatorcane]

Here are the winds at Molasses reef off of Marathon Florida showing them veering to the South today:

Previous observations MM DD TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
kts GST
kts WVHT
ft DPD
sec APD
sec MWD PRES
in PTDY
in ATMP
°F WTMP
°F DEWP
°F SAL VIS
mi TIDE
ft
06 08 2:00 pm S 10 10 - - - - 29.92 -0.04 81.1 83.7 - 36.95 - -
06 08 1:00 pm S 11 12 - - - - 29.93 -0.02 80.8 83.7 - 36.95 - -
06 08 12:00 pm S 11 11 - - - - 29.96 - 80.4 83.5 - 36.95 - -
06 08 11:00 am S 13 14 - - - - 29.96 +0.03 81.0 83.5 - 36.93 - -
06 08 10:00 am ESE 9 10 - - - - 29.96 +0.04 81.9 83.3 - 36.95 - -
06 08 9:00 am ESE 9 10 - - - - 29.95 +0.04 81.7 83.1 - 36.98 - -
06 08 8:00 am E 7 8 - - - - 29.93 +0.03 81.3 83.1 - 37.01 - -
06 08 7:00 am E 6 7 - - - - 29.91 +0.00 81.3 83.1 - 37.03 - -
06 08 6:00 am E 9 9 - - - - 29.91 +0.00 81.1 83.1 - 37.03 - -
06 08 5:00 am E 10 11 - - - - 29.90 -0.03 81.1 83.1 - 37.04 - -
06 08 4:00 am ESE 10 10 - - - - 29.91 -0.03 81.0 83.3 - 37.03 - -
06 08 3:00 am ESE 12 14 - - - - 29.91 -0.04 81.1 83.3 - 37.03 - -
06 08 2:00 am SE 13 14 - - - - 29.93 +0.00 81.1 83.1 - 37.03 - -
06 08 1:00 am ESE 15 16 - - - - 29.94 +0.00 81.9 83.3 - 37.05 - -
06 08 12:00 am E 18 19 - - - - 29.95 +0.01 81.9 83.3 - 37.06 - -
06 07 11:00 pm E 18 21 - - - - 29.94 +0.01 81.7 83.5 - 37.06 - -
06 07 10:00 pm E 17 19 - - - - 29.95 +0.04 81.9 83.7 - 37.04 - -
06 07 9:00 pm E 18 20 - - - - 29.94 +0.04 82.0 83.7 - 37.05 - -
06 07 8:00 pm E 18 19 - - - - 29.93 +0.01 81.9 83.7 - 37.04 - -
06 07 7:00 pm E 19 21 - - - - 29.91 -0.01 82.2 84.0 - 37.05 - -
06 07 6:00 pm E 19 20 - - - - 29.90 -0.04 81.9 84.9 - 37.02 - -
06 07 5:00 pm ENE 15 17 - - - - 29.91 -0.04 82.6 84.0 - 37.04 - -
06 07 4:00 pm E 9 10 - - - - 29.92 -0.04 82.4 84.0 - 37.03 - -

[cycloneye]

Storm2k forums are a lot better than Zack's forums in my opinion! I will be here from now on because no one can beat Storm2k forums. There 100 times better than any other weather forum.

Thank you for the comments.

[max]

boca_chris interesting! Very exciting but I don't think anything will happen. I don't mind being wrong though.

This weather forum is so much better than all other weather forums!

Long live storm2k forums! I am going to donate soon because this is the only weather forum that deserves money.

[max]

Storm2k forums are a lot better than Zack's forums in my opinion! I will be here from now on because no one can beat Storm2k forums. There 100 times better than any other weather forum.

Thank you for the comments.

Your very welcome

[CHRISTY]

boca_chris interesting! Very exciting but I don't think anything will happen. I don't mind being wrong though.

This weather forum is so much better than all other weather forums!

Long live storm2k forums! I am going to donate soon because this is the only weather forum that deserves money.

STORM2K IS THE BEST!

[max]

boca_chris interesting! Very exciting but I don't think anything will happen. I don't mind being wrong though.

This weather forum is so much better than all other weather forums!

Long live storm2k forums! I am going to donate soon because this is the only weather forum that deserves money.

STORM2K IS THE BEST!

I can agree with that perfectly!

I will make sure I recommend all my friends and family only to storm2k forums and not of the any other weather forums like Zack's weather forums.

Those forums are horrible

[brunota2003]

THE MOST UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS WITHIN 280 NM E OF THE SFC TROUGH AXIS. A
BROAD/ILL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRES APPEARS TO BE FORMING AT THE
BASE OF THE SFC TROUGH NEAR BELIZE. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT TC FORMATION MAY OCCUR FROM THIS ENERGY SOURCE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME A BIT LESS
HOSTILE. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL DRIFT WWARD
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND.

Very Interesting Atlantic Discussion issued at 2:05 P.M.

[hicksta]

You may be jumping the gun there a little early bro. Theres no need to even worry yet. First she has to make it across the yuc. THEN we can have a good idea of where the storm will be heading. If its the western gulf or the eastern or the northern. We will have to wait and see. But as of now all the models are scatterd. Lets just play the waiting game for a day or two. Then we can have a good idea of where the storm may be heading. But nature can never be fully predicted so all we can do is wait and see

Looks like the Winds in the Florida Keys are veering more to the South and increasing slightly today in response to our developing system.

Key West Summary:

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 4 PM (20) Jun 08 86.0 (30.0) 73.0 (22.8) 29.9 (1012) SSE 12
3 PM (19) Jun 08 87.1 (30.6) 75.0 (23.9) 29.91 (1012) SSE 10
2 PM (18) Jun 08 87.1 (30.6) 69.1 (20.6) 29.9 (1012) ESE 8
1 PM (17) Jun 08 87.1 (30.6) 69.1 (20.6) 29.92 (1013) ESE 7
Noon (16) Jun 08 86.0 (30.0) 72.0 (22.2) 29.94 (1013) ESE 12
11 AM (15) Jun 08 86.0 (30.0) 73.9 (23.3) 29.95 (1014) ESE 10
10 AM (14) Jun 08 84.9 (29.4) 75.0 (23.9) 29.95 (1014) SE 9
9 AM (13) Jun 08 84 (29) 73 (23) 29.95 (1014) ESE 8
8 AM (12) Jun 08 82 (28) 73 (23) 29.93 (1013) E 7
7 AM (11) Jun 08 82.0 (27.8) 73.9 (23.3) 29.91 (1012) ESE 7
6 AM (10) Jun 08 81.0 (27.2) 73.0 (22.8) 29.9 (1012) E 7
5 AM (9) Jun 08 82.0 (27.8) 73.0 (22.8) 29.89 (1012) ESE 9
4 AM (8) Jun 08 82.0 (27.8) 73.0 (22.8) 29.9 (1012) E 8
3 AM (7) Jun 08 82.0 (27.8) 73.0 (22.8) 29.9 (1012) ESE 10
2 AM (6) Jun 08 82.0 (27.8) 73.0 (22.8) 29.93 (1013) ESE 10
1 AM (5) Jun 08 82.0 (27.8) 73.0 (22.8) 29.94 (1013) ESE 13
Midnight (4) Jun 08 82.9 (28.3) 73.0 (22.8) 29.95 (1014) ESE 13
11 PM (3) Jun 07 82.9 (28.3) 73.9 (23.3) 29.93 (1013) E 12
10 PM (2) Jun 07 82.9 (28.3) 73.9 (23.3) 29.93 (1013) E 8
9 PM (1) Jun 07 82.9 (28.3) 72.0 (22.2) 29.93 (1013) E 12
8 PM (0) Jun 07 84.0 (28.9) 72.0 (22.2) 29.91 (1012) ESE 12
7 PM (23) Jun 07 84.9 (29.4) 73.0 (22.8) 29.89 (1012) E 8
6 PM (22) Jun 07 86.0 (30.0) 73.0 (22.8) 29.9 (1012) ESE 10
Oldest 5 PM (21) Jun 07 86.0 (30.0) 72.0 (22.2) 29.91 (1012) ESE 10

[AZS]

[gatorcane]

You may be jumping the gun there a little early bro. Theres no need to even worry yet. First she has to make it across the yuc. THEN we can have a good idea of where the storm will be heading. If its the western gulf or the eastern or the northern. We will have to wait and see. But as of now all the models are scatterd. Lets just play the waiting game for a day or two. Then we can have a good idea of where the storm may be heading. But nature can never be fully predicted so all we can do is wait and see

Hicksta consider the possiblity of another low forming more NE than the current weak ill-defined low - underneath the huge convection complex south of cuba or in the NW Caribbean

In that case the Yucatan would not be involved

[Zadok]

It does look interesting under cuba.

[jasons2k]

Some more AFDs:

From San Antonio:

FOR NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO TEXAS WITH THE
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAILING OVER THE
AREA. A POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE/SYSTEM MOVING/DEVELOPING INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF COULD ALTER THAT...BUT THIS FAR NORTH AND INLAND WILL
FAVOR THE PERSISTANT HOT/DRY FORECAST.

From Houston:

THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE (NAM AND GFS) SHOWS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT NIGHT
OUT INTO THE SOUTH/CENTRAL GULF. BY TUE...THE GFS HAS A WEAK
LOW CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF MEXICO WITH AN INVERTED
TROF EXTENDING NE TOWARD THE SE LA COAST. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THE MOMENT AND WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP OUT
OVER THE GULF.

Houston Marine:

LIGHT WINDS
(GENERALLY VARIABLE) TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
A MORE SLY DIRECTION FRI NIGHT AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP
THESE WINDS IN FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK DESPITE SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE AS IT NEARS THE TX COAST. WILL
WAIT AND SEE IF THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH THESE NEXT FEW RUNS
BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES.

[wxman22]

Heres some comments from a meterologist on Accuweather:


Today's Discussion
Low pressure in the Northwest Caribbean is Starting to Organize
Posted: 8-JUN-2006 2:57pm EDT

By Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski



A broad area of low pressure that we have been watching and speculating on since Monday is showing some signs of organization. Ship reports and buoys in this area are showing pressure falls. At one point a ship was reporting a pressure down to 1005 millibars just off the coast of Belize. thinking is that a number of small low pressure areas are going to form in this area and move westward into Belize. To the north a large mass of showers and thunderstorms has formed. The quick change in the overall cloud movement and organization to this low is due to the gradual decrease in the upper level winds over this region. Strong north to northwest winds have been creating too much shear over this area for any organization. Now that the shear is decreasing we are seeing some signs of organization. We believe this feature will move north or northwest during the next 24-48 hours which could put it either in the Bay of Campeche or on the north or northeast coast of the Yucatan. Once away from the Yucatan this feature might have some chance for further development. Water temperatures just east of the Yucatan are very warm and the waters in the Bay of Campeche are also very warm. So, the main issue will be shear. Campeche faster than to the north of the Yucatan. So, if the feature moves more to the west or northwest it might have a better chance for organizing sooner than if it were to move due north. Computer models are showing various ideas on this and just about every model now shows some kind of low pressure area near the Yucatan by the end of this weekend. Our current feeling is that if the shear can drop off enough we could have a developing tropical system by the end of the weekend.


Heres what Accuweather thinks the system may go:




There is good reason for concern right now. In the days ahead, there is a chance we could see the first named storm of the 2006 hurricane season. An area of low pressure in the western Caribbean is aimed right at the part of the Gulf of Mexico that is a prime location for tropical storm formation in June. The water is certainly warm enough which allows for increased convection. More convective showers liberate more heat into the atmosphere. In turn, this establishes a better defined circulation by lowering the central pressure of the disturbance. Nothing may come of this, but the situation is ripe and will need to be watched closely the next couple of days. You may read about the tropics in full detail in the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center. Story by AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.