Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

#41 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:01 pm

Isn't there usually a few different small low level circulations until a dominant low becomes primary? I'm not sure if I made that in proper terminology but, I think you get the idea.

jusforsean · #42 Postby **jusforsean** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:04 pm

With 4 models leaning to the east and only 2 to the west it makes me wonder, unfortunatley models cannot be trusted this far out. Regardless, here we go again, To think I have spent an entire year logging on to storm2k 10 times a day and it wasnt even season, now i get that same nervous feeling in my gut as the season heats up, i hope with all of the people now flooding storm2k we dont get overloaded when its wild out there because alot of us depend on the info here!

Bluefrog · #43 Postby **Bluefrog** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:06 pm

noooooooooooooooooooooo . . . . :cheesy:

i can't handle the truth

Stratusxpeye · #44 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:27 pm

Does remind me of arlene. Same day and same area as her as well. Wonder if it'll develop like arelene.

Totally off topic now. Im at work and being dumb today locked my keys in the car. Does anyone know if the local police would come out to unlock it? Im located in hillsbourough county florida. (Tampa) Thanks :roll:

Extremeweatherguy · #45 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:29 pm

Here are some assorted Gulf coast AFD's that mention the system:

Corpus Christi, TX:

.LONG-TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
FLATTEN AND RETREAT INTO OLD MEXICO AS A S/WV TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE WEEKEND AS S TX WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE H5
RIDGE. A TROPICAL WAVE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN DISARRAY AS TO HOW TO HANDLE
THIS FEATURE. THE ECMWF AND 12Z NAM KEEPS THE TROUGH AS AN OPEN
WAVE AND MOVES IT INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND KEEPS IT WELL SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE. THE 12Z NOGAPS/GFS ARE NOW CONVERGING SOMEWHAT WITH
THE CANADIAN WITH REGARDS TO LOCATION BY MOVING THE SYSTEM INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN IS MUCH FASTER/MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE NOGAPS/GFS. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING
EXTENDED FORECAST AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH FROM MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

Brownsville, TX:

CHANGES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. FIRST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED BACK TO THE WEST
WITH A WEAK TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. SECOND...MODELS
ARE INDICATING A WEAK TROPICAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE COMBINED EFFECTS WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. SPECIFICALLY...THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE SEABREEZE AS IT MAKES ITS DAILY TREK
WESTWARD ACROSS THE VALLEY. THIS WILL NEED WATCHING FOR BENEFICIAL
RAIN FOR THE REGION.
^^I love how they say it is not expected to become a TC even though the NHC says it has a chance as well as many models and pro mets.^^

New Orleans, LA:

.DISCUSSION...HOT AND BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
NORTHERN GULF. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE TO THIS PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE MID 90S.
MOISTURE RETURN THEN LOOKS TO INCREASE BY THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LOOKS TO DRIFT INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF SUN AND MON WHICH MIGHT AID MOISTURE TRANSPORT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR THE AREA BEGINNING MON WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW.

**AFD's for Houston and Lake Charles have not come out yet.**

White Cap · #46 Postby **White Cap** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:31 pm

I wonder should New Orleans begin to worry? :roll:

Extremeweatherguy · #47 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:33 pm

when does the next batch of model runs come in?

DESTRUCTION5 · #48 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:34 pm

White Cap wrote:I wonder should New Orleans begin to worry?

No..Ask again next Wed...

Extremeweatherguy · #49 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:35 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
White Cap wrote:I wonder should New Orleans begin to worry?

No..Ask again next Wed...

This thing should already be in the Gulf by Sunday. So I think by Wednesday it may already be to late.

#50 Postby **feederband** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:37 pm

White Cap wrote:I wonder should New Orleans begin to worry?

I think the began to worry on June 1st... :eek:

#51 Postby **fwbbreeze** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:37 pm

from the Mobile, AL AFD....

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT
LEAST TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD. 07.12Z ECMWF SHOWING THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE EASTERN TROUGH SOMETHING THAT ALSO APPEARED ON
THE 07.00Z GFS RUN. NOW THE 08.00Z GFS HAS COME IN INDICATING A
BROAD RIDGE REMAINING W/ A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES
PUSHING A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH THE GFS RECURVES A TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO SW LOUISIANA
(THERE I FINALLY SAID IT). IN FACT ALL GUIDANCE I CAN SEE SHOWS SOME
SORT OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SW GULF W/ THE CANADIAN GEM
SENDING IT TOWARD THE FL BIG BEND AND THE ECMWF MEANDERING AROUND
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS PER HPC EXTENDED
DISCUSSION IS TO DISCOUNT THE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND BLEND THE
ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS AND HAVE FOLLOWED...STILL A LITTLE EARLY ANYWAY.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER HOT DAY ON SUNDAY W/ HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO
105 AND ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT
WESTWARD THE DAYTIME TEMPS WILL COME BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ALONG W/
GRADUALLY INCREASING DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES AS DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE
WORKS INTO THE REGION...IN OTHER WORDS A SUMMERTIME PATTERN. /13

fwbbreeze

#52 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:39 pm

IMHO the Eastern GOM and FL Panhandle watch this system...

but it is still early to say.

White Cap · #53 Postby **White Cap** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:39 pm

feederband wrote:
White Cap wrote:I wonder should New Orleans begin to worry?

I think the began to worry on June 1st...

I don't think we truly have stopped worrying Since August 29, 2005!

DESTRUCTION5 · #54 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:39 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
White Cap wrote:I wonder should New Orleans begin to worry?

No..Ask again next Wed...
This thing should already be in the Gulf by Sunday. So I think by Wednesday it may already be to late.

No way..If it was it won't be developing with them Shear maps...

Extremeweatherguy · #55 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:43 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
White Cap wrote:I wonder should New Orleans begin to worry?

No..Ask again next Wed...
This thing should already be in the Gulf by Sunday. So I think by Wednesday it may already be to late.

No way..If it was it won't be developing with them Shear maps...

It is already over the eastern yucatan and it is only Thursday. There is no way that this thing sits there for 4 or 5 days.

#56 Postby **tgenius** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:45 pm

I agree.. I think it will be in gulf by sun assuming something will form.

#57 Postby **feederband** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:46 pm

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MiamiensisWx · #58 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:46 pm

Oops... I posted the eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC! Sorry...

Extremeweatherguy · #59 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:47 pm

Here is a look at the 72 hour shear forecast:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/data/ ... _shear.gif

shear looks to decrease a lot by Sunday! The Gulf will be perfect for development.

#60 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:48 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081610
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT THU JUN 8 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL AMERICA
WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT PACIFIC
WATERS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

This was meant for the 93E invest thread right?

Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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