Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

drezee,You knew the editing of title would come like it is now. The usual heading for these kinds of threads.

[skysummit]

Those models that were just posted have not been updated with the "new" 90L. Here are the correct plots....

[HurricaneHunter914]

Ya know I may be crazy but something is telling me the LBAR is on to something.

[rockyman]

well this is obviously wrong.

Why do you say that?

well the low it is showing is not the invest low (for one), but also I doubt this thing would be pushed into the pacific...it just doesn't sound realistic from what I have heard from pro mets and what I have seen other models suggesting.

The UKMet's initial position is Saturday (not now)...what I get from this is UKMet predicts the storm to stay south and make landfall in the BOC...then the energy will be pulled across Mexico into the EPac...this is certainly a possibility.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ya know I may be crazy but something is telling me the LBAR is on to something.

the LBAR is usually the most inaccurate tropical model.

[feederband]

Ya know I may be crazy but something is telling me the LBAR is on to something.

Na I call you a Floridian..

[drezee]

drezee,You knew the editing of title would come like it is now. The usual heading for these kinds of threads.

I was waiting...thought you might have been sleeping on the job.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Those models that were just posted have not been updated with the "new" 90L. Here are the correct plots....

I think feederband's models are more recent than these. I saw these same model plots much earlier this morning.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Ya know I may be crazy but something is telling me the LBAR is on to something.

Na I call you a Floridian..

Thanks and I'll call you a Floridian back.

[skysummit]

<<<<NEVERMIND>>>>

The 18Z models have just updated.....HERE are the new plots including the LBAR and GFDL....

[Extremeweatherguy]

<<<<NEVERMIND>>>>

The 18Z models have just updated.....HERE are the new plots including the LBAR and GFDL....

The main difference is that all the FL aimed models have trended further west or north.

[Extremeweatherguy]

comparison:

this mornings models:
http://img222.imageshack.us/my.php?imag ... 0067rw.png

18Z models:
http://img119.imageshack.us/my.php?imag ... 0065mh.png

[skysummit]

I think feederband's models are more recent than these. I saw these same model plots much earlier this morning.

I guarantee you the models I post are the MOST recent. My last model plot includes the 18Z plots.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think feederband's models are more recent than these. I saw these same model plots much earlier this morning.

I guarantee you the models I post are the MOST recent. My last model plot includes the 18Z plots.

yes, I saw the update. The 18Z are the most recent. thanks for posting them.

[feederband]

I think feederband's models are more recent than these. I saw these same model plots much earlier this morning.

I guarantee you the models I post are the MOST recent. My last model plot includes the 18Z plots.

I also guarantee I did not post any models...

[cycloneye]

drezee,You knew the editing of title would come like it is now. The usual heading for these kinds of threads.

I was waiting...thought you might have been sleeping on the job.

No!!!,I was busy here in San Juan almost all morning and found this. By the way prepare the second thread shortly.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Most of the models take this baby into the U.S, while the other two take it into Mexico. If you put a straight line in between all of the models this could be a Texas hit.

[MiamiensisWx]

The shift of the models further west is no surprise. The next few days are going to be very interesting.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think feederband's models are more recent than these. I saw these same model plots much earlier this morning.

I guarantee you the models I post are the MOST recent. My last model plot includes the 18Z plots.

I also guarantee I did not post any models...

your right, I meant drezee. There have been so many posts this morning it is becoming hard to keep track.

[drezee]

783
WHXX01 KWBC 081751
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902006) ON 20060608 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060608 1800 060609 0600 060609 1800 060610 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.8N 88.2W 18.2N 88.0W 18.7N 88.1W 19.6N 88.9W
BAMM 17.8N 88.2W 18.3N 88.3W 18.7N 88.9W 19.2N 90.1W
A98E 17.8N 88.2W 18.5N 88.1W 19.2N 88.1W 20.4N 87.2W
LBAR 17.8N 88.2W 18.6N 88.2W 19.9N 88.6W 21.6N 89.4W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 25KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060610 1800 060611 1800 060612 1800 060613 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.0N 90.0W 24.0N 91.5W 26.3N 91.4W 27.7N 91.3W
BAMM 20.0N 91.5W 21.7N 93.8W 22.4N 95.5W 22.1N 97.8W
A98E 21.4N 87.3W 22.9N 87.5W 24.8N 87.3W 27.0N 85.1W
LBAR 23.4N 90.2W 27.2N 89.5W 28.4N 84.4W 29.7N 78.9W
SHIP 36KTS 42KTS 46KTS 49KTS
DSHP 32KTS 39KTS 42KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 88.2W DIRCUR = 355DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 16.6N LONM12 = 88.0W DIRM12 = 356DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 15.0N LONM24 = 88.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....