Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Website · #141 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:38 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

TROPICAL DEPRESSION?!

All Invests are like that. Until the "Invest 90L" is changed to a number(One in this case), it's still an invest.

HurricaneHunter914 · #142 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:40 pm

Oh Okay I'm still learning so it kinda gave me a scare.

#143 Postby **drezee** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:40 pm

404
AGXX40 KNHC 081736
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM THU JUN 08 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO
POSSIBLE LOW PRES CENTER OFF BELIZE COAST. TROUGH EXPECTED TO
MOVE NW OVER YUCATAN OUT OF NW CARIBBEAN LATE FRI OR SAT.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER GULF IS FORCED INTO SW N ATLC TIGHTENING
GRADIENT AND INCREASING TRADES ACROSS CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL
ATLC FROM 12N TO 20N THROUGH REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD.

TROPICAL WAVES NOW ALONG 52W SHOULD ENTER TROPICAL ATLC BY MON
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS AS IT CROSSES BASIN.

SW N ATLC...
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W/CENTRAL CUBA NE ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS TO NEAR 31N66W. MOST MODELS PUSH TROUGH E FORCED BY GULF
OF MEXICO RIDGE PUSHING INTO SW N ATLC AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
OF SE COAST. TROUGH INCREASES WIND AND SEAS AHEAD AS IT MOVES
OUT OF AREA BY TUE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
BASIN LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE WORSE.
HIGH PRES 1015 MB NEAR 28N89W SHOULD GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING LOW
PRES OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS AND DRIFTING...
EVER SO SLOWLY...MOST LIKELY NW. MODELS DIFFER IN TRAJECTORY
AND TIMING...AS WELL AS INTENSITY OF LOW PRES. FORECAST FOLLOWS
COMPROMISE ON BAMS MODELS AND RUNNING NW TRACK THROUGH 72 HRS
THEN TURNING MORE WLY COURSE N OF 26N.

AS LOW PRES PROGRESSES NW...THE NE QUADRANT SHOULD BEAR
STRONGEST WIND AND HIGHEST SEAS THROUGH PERIOD. AT THIS TIME IT
IS NOT EXPECTED YET TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. REMAINDER
GULF OF MEXICO MORE TAME AND QUIET.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES

hicksta · #144 Postby **hicksta** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:40 pm

Models are usless right now until it goes over the yucatan and re organizes it's center.

rockyman · #145 Postby **rockyman** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:41 pm

12z UKMet:

shaggy · #146 Postby **shaggy** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:43 pm

hicksta wrote:Models are usless right now until it goes over the yucatan and re organizes it's center.

thats if it isn't ripped to shreds and has anything left then it might try to get going in the gulf but the Yucatan can be a killer!

#147 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:45 pm

As long as the circulation stays broad, it can handle the Yucatan.

Opal storm · #148 Postby **Opal storm** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:49 pm

Is it already over the Yucatan?

#149 Postby **drezee** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:49 pm

Things are cooking:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_m.shtml

Model Analyses and Forecasts
Central US 12 UTC HIRESW

WRF ARW preempted by the hurricane model. No WRF ARW graphics available for this hour

HurricaneHunter914 · #150 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:50 pm

rockyman wrote:12z UKMet:

Now this thing is expected to pull a Hurricane Stan on us.

#151 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:51 pm

NHC 2:05 Discussion excerpt:

A
BROAD/ILL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRES APPEARS TO BE FORMING AT THE
BASE OF THE SFC TROUGH NEAR BELIZE. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT TC FORMATION MAY OCCUR FROM THIS ENERGY SOURCE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME A BIT LESS
HOSTILE. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL DRIFT WWARD
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND.

Extremeweatherguy · #152 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:52 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:
rockyman wrote:12z UKMet:

Now this thing is expected to pull a Hurricane Stan on us.

well this is obviously wrong.

#153 Postby **drezee** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:53 pm

GFDL Added!!!

Opal storm · #154 Postby **Opal storm** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:53 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote: well this is obviously wrong.

Why do you say that?

#155 Postby **feederband** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:54 pm

drezee wrote:GFDL Added!!!

These types of storms the xtrap is the best one to go buy...

Extremeweatherguy · #156 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:55 pm

Opal storm wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote: well this is obviously wrong.

Why do you say that?

well the low it is showing is not the invest low (for one), but also I doubt this thing would be pushed into the pacific...it just doesn't sound realistic from what I have heard from pro mets and what I have seen other models suggesting.

HurricaneHunter914 · #157 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:55 pm

Extremeweatherguy, what i meant was that the UKMET thinks that this invest expects this thing to take a Hurricane Stan-like track.

Extremeweatherguy · #158 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:56 pm

feederband wrote:
drezee wrote:GFDL Added!!!

These types of storms the xtrap is the best one to go buy...

If you took the average track of all those models...it would mean bad news for TX.

#159 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:56 pm

Those models are incorrect.

#160 Postby **feederband** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:56 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
feederband wrote:
drezee wrote:GFDL Added!!!

These types of storms the xtrap is the best one to go buy...
If you took the average track of all those models...it would mean bad news for TX.

Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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