Models Discussion About W Caribbean Low #3

rockyman · #61 Postby **rockyman** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 8:55 am

On Day 7, the western Gulf low is non-existent on Euro, while the east Gulf low still has a circle around it

cajungal · #62 Postby **cajungal** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 8:55 am

I will take the rain. We need it so bad. The only way we are going to get it is if that low tracks over Houston, SW Louisiana, or right over us. If it goes anywhere east of us, we won't get a drop. Or should I call it a blob?

Beam · #63 Postby **Beam** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 8:58 am

CHRISTY · #64 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:09 am

So far iam not seeing any sign of this maybe trying to happen...see for your self.

#65 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:11 am

You're not going to....it's not supposed to happen yet.

cajungal · #66 Postby **cajungal** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:11 am

Yeah, we may have been talking about something that is never going to happen. I guess it is just something to talk about.

#67 Postby **drezee** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:15 am

I look at it like this; you have a heck of a lot of latent heat down there over warm water with improving upper level conditions. My issue is which side wins? EPAC or ATL? This is a natural occurrence for this time of year. I am rather sure that a Tropical Cyclone is going to develop. If it happens on both sides, then great…two storms that are weaker than one storm would be. The problem I see here is the shear amount of convection and area of influence of this system (Atlantic and East Pac). If one storm gets going it has the potential to become a very large system (not necessarily strong wind, but possible). Torrential Rains will prevail with the landfall of such a system.

CHRISTY · #68 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:15 am

Iam sorry guys but i just dont see anything moving into the gulf look at the DRY AIR that is in place in the gulf right now of course this can change but as of right now this place is a microwave..

Scorpion · #69 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am

CHRISTY that will change. Development is almost assured.

SWFLA_CANE · #70 Postby **SWFLA_CANE** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:20 am

I was looking at the 00z GFS and the 06z GFS and it seems as though the model is backing off of the system a little. In the 06z it has the system stay in the central gulf and not really affect land while the 00z GFS has it go into LA. Look at 162 hours for the 00z run and 162 and beyond for the 06z run. I would have posted the link but I don't know how yet (Newbie

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#71 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:21 am

Scorpion wrote:CHRISTY that will change. Development is almost assured.

Scorp, you're pretty bullish on development. How come? I'm curious ...

Scorpion · #72 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:24 am

Portastorm wrote:
Scorpion wrote:CHRISTY that will change. Development is almost assured.

Scorp, you're pretty bullish on development. How come? I'm curious ...

This is the first time this year that all models are picking up on something.

CHRISTY · #73 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:24 am

Scorpion wrote:CHRISTY that will change. Development is almost assured.

uh....this is not a forsure thing by no means at all.the chances actually of something like this happening are not to great.think about it the last time we had back to back seasons with a june storm was 1996-1997.so i say its a 50-50 chance this will happen.

PS!remember their are going to be many false alarms to come iam not this is one but something to keep in mind.

wzrgirl1 · #74 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:26 am

still think conditions aren't quite right yet....but only time will tell

#75 Postby **tailgater** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:26 am

drezee wrote:Alright we may have a winner!
NNW winds being reported in Belize for 2 straight hours!

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MZBZ.html

2 MB 24 hour pressure falls at Chetumal
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCM.html

The entire NW Caribbean dropped about 1 mb, but that ship report could be the real deal. That would be @ a 4mb drop for that area right?

#76 Postby **drezee** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:26 am

CHRISTY wrote:Iam sorry guys but i just dont see anything moving into the gulf look at the DRY AIR that is in place in the gulf right now of course this can change but as of right now this place is a microwave..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-l.jpg

Looks like Arlene

http://i55.photobucket.com/albums/g154/ ... hbnmfg.jpg

CHRISTY · #77 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:28 am

remember their are going to be many false alarms to come iam not this is one but something to keep in mind.

CHRISTY · #78 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:29 am

423
ABNT20 KNHC 080904
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU JUN 08 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

as for right now theres nothing to worry about...but who knows maybe that will change next week?i wouldnt bet on it.

#79 Postby **drezee** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:29 am

CHRISTY wrote:remember their are going to be many false alarms to come iam not this is one but something to keep in mind.

Of course, that is the nature of the tropics. Flare-up...Flare-down...everyone once in a while a flare-up stays up

BTW...still NNW winds

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MZBZ.html

#80 Postby **AnnularCane** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:30 am

There is nothing brewing yet....RIGHT?

Models Discussion About W Caribbean Low #3

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