Models Discussion About W Caribbean Low #3

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wxmann_91
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#41 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:46 am

ericinmia wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:
ericinmia wrote:I added the latest output...

It now appears more of a due N movement.

Interestingly... The mm5 is developing the EPAC and CARIB storms sepperately.
That seems a lot more plausible to me.


It actually isn't. If these two storms were to form in such a fashion, they would kill each other. It doesn't make much sense.

I'd bet that this will end up a short-lived BOC storm ala Bret, Gert, and Jose of last year.


That makes little sense. Neither the EPAC nor the CARIB storm would be remotely strong enough or have an outflow large enough to excert the 'Fujiwara' effect upon the other. Any effects would be very minimal.

The mm5 is showing past 120hr that the EPAC system dies off. But the CARIB system can not be attributed to this. They are sepperated by such a distance that any effects one has on the other are trivial compared to the environmental factors being excerted upon them.


The disturbance in the EPAC attm is very well-ventilated... nothing around it stands a chance. Remember Gert and Franklin? None were able to develop until they moved away from each other. I was not talking about the Fujiwara, I was just saying that one system would shear the other system apart, preventing formation. Perhaps the MM5 is hinting at two disturbances, one which dissipates, and one which forms into a TC, which would make much more sense.
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#42 Postby KatDaddy » Thu Jun 08, 2006 6:29 am

From this mornings Houston-Galveston Forecast Disc:


OFFSHORE BEGINNING SAT NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEK
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE. WE COULD ALSO SEE 3 TO 4
FOOT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THINGS COULD
CHANGE IF ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OUT IN THE GULF. BEARS WATCH?
NOT JUST YET. 42
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#43 Postby no advance » Thu Jun 08, 2006 6:38 am

Lots of moisture down there in the SW Car. looks like something will pop soon. I know the invest is in the Pac E pac but I am not sold on that.
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#44 Postby KatDaddy » Thu Jun 08, 2006 6:38 am

More TX forecast discussions mentioning GOM action

Corpus Christi:

.LONG-TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MID-TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS ANTICYCLONE RELENTS SOME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL FEATURE EMERGES FROM THE YUCATAN INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHETHER THIS FEATURE REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE OR
ACQUIRES A CIRCULATION AND WHERE IT ULTIMATELY TRACKS WILL LARGELY
DICTATE POPS.

San Antonio:

OF NOTE, MODELS ARE BECOMING VERY INTERESTING
WITH RESPECT TO TROPICAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE YUCATAN.
THE CANADIAN WAS THE FIRST TO JUMP ON THIS FOUR DAYS AGO WHILE
SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING SOME DEVELOPMENT. HOW
MUCH ANY SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND WHERE IT TRACKS IS STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN, ALTHOUGH IT BEARS WATCHING.
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#45 Postby Ivan14 » Thu Jun 08, 2006 6:58 am

Now we can sound the BEARS WATCHING alarm. :lol:
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#46 Postby Stratusxpeye » Thu Jun 08, 2006 7:06 am

Well models have been pointing out "something" everything from just a low to a descent hurricane for about 4 days now. BEARS WATCHING. Wait and see ... again
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#47 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jun 08, 2006 7:33 am

so the thought has shifted from the BOC to the Caribbean now for any development :?:
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#48 Postby Stratusxpeye » Thu Jun 08, 2006 7:37 am

boca_chris wrote:so the thought has shifted from the BOC to the Caribbean now for any development :?:


Not that I'm aware of. I still see and am reading BOC as the area of concern. And form the above Posts as well.
:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:
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#49 Postby Alacane2 » Thu Jun 08, 2006 7:54 am

From NWS Mobile Discussion:

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT
LEAST TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD. 07.12Z ECMWF SHOWING THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE EASTERN TROUGH SOMETHING THAT ALSO APPEARED ON
THE 07.00Z GFS RUN. NOW THE 08.00Z GFS HAS COME IN INDICATING A
BROAD RIDGE REMAINING W/ A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES
PUSHING A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH THE GFS RECURVES A TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO SW LOUISIANA
(THERE I FINALLY SAID IT). IN FACT ALL GUIDANCE I CAN SEE SHOWS SOME
SORT OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SW GULF W/ THE CANADIAN GEM
SENDING IT TOWARD THE FL BIG BEND AND THE ECMWF MEANDERING AROUND
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS PER HPC EXTENDED
DISCUSSION IS TO DISCOUNT THE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND BLEND THE
ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS AND HAVE FOLLOWED...STILL A LITTLE EARLY ANYWAY.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER HOT DAY ON SUNDAY W/ HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO
105 AND ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT
WESTWARD THE DAYTIME TEMPS WILL COME BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ALONG W/
GRADUALLY INCREASING DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES AS DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE
WORKS INTO THE REGION...IN OTHER WORDS A SUMMERTIME PATTERN. /13
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#50 Postby tailgater » Thu Jun 08, 2006 7:58 am

TAFB at 72hrs. out. They show 2 lows, one in E Pac and 1 in BOC.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
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#51 Postby beachbum_al » Thu Jun 08, 2006 8:12 am

I go to bed last night and come back to this. What happen to the little blob in the BOC? What is this in the Carribean? I guess the tropics didn't listen to me when I said that they couldn't form. :cry:
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#52 Postby JPmia » Thu Jun 08, 2006 8:16 am

"AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH THE GFS RECURVES A TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO SW LOUISIANA
(THERE I FINALLY SAID IT)."

He sure did.
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#53 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 08, 2006 8:26 am

It seems it's something to keep a close eye. Finally, something worth of it!!!
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#54 Postby rockyman » Thu Jun 08, 2006 8:40 am

00Z Euro seems to be showing 2 systems in the Gulf...the low in the Western Gulf moving back west toward Tex/Mex, and a stronger one forming around Key West and moving up toward the eastern Florida Panhandle area :eek: :

120 hours:
http://tinyurl.com/ndp3u

144 hours:
http://tinyurl.com/mw5md

168 hours:
http://tinyurl.com/qz8aw
Last edited by rockyman on Thu Jun 08, 2006 8:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#55 Postby drezee » Thu Jun 08, 2006 8:42 am

Alright we may have a winner!
NNW winds being reported in Belize for 2 straight hours!

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MZBZ.html

2 MB 24 hour pressure falls at Chetumal
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCM.html
Last edited by drezee on Thu Jun 08, 2006 8:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#56 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 08, 2006 8:46 am

Because there is some uncertainty about where a low will form or in the Bay of Campeche,or in the Western Caribbean I changed a little the title of thread.
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#57 Postby rockyman » Thu Jun 08, 2006 8:47 am

Thanks, drezee, for that observation! I'm watching the visible loops in this area...seems to be lots of "swirliness"...I see 2 possible centers...one over the extreme SW corner of the Gulf of Honduras, one inland over the southern Mexican Yucatan
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#58 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jun 08, 2006 8:48 am

Has anybody noticed the recent flare up of convection in the NW Carrib?
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drezee
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#59 Postby drezee » Thu Jun 08, 2006 8:50 am

This is a shaky ship ob, but I’ll post it anyway.

A ship just off the Belize coast reported NW winds at 8kts and a pressure of 1005.3 MB. SST is really low though…

08/12 KS049 17.4 -88.2 25.5 320 8 1005.3 23.0 KS049
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#60 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jun 08, 2006 8:52 am

rockyman wrote:00Z Euro seems to be showing 2 systems in the Gulf...the low in the Western Gulf moving back west toward Tex/Mex, and a stronger one forming around Key West and moving up toward the eastern Florida Panhandle area :eek: :

120 hours:
http://tinyurl.com/ndp3u

144 hours:
http://tinyurl.com/mw5md

168 hours:
http://tinyurl.com/qz8aw


Nah, the second low isn't "stronger". On day 6, it's a 1010mb low under very unfavorable upper air conditions. Nothin' to it.
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