Models Discussion About W Caribbean Low #3

#21 Postby **ericinmia** » Wed Jun 07, 2006 11:26 pm

Here is the 00z Canadian... Still East into Tallahasee.

Also remember about the GFDL. The Winds that it is predicting are at FLIGHT LEVEL. Not at the ground. So drop what you see by about a category in general.
-Eric

#22 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 07, 2006 11:27 pm

boca wrote:Luis wants down there by you at 138 hours, actually the Lesser Antilles.

Oh boca,that is a tropical wave that GFS has been showing for many days now,nothing more.Rain that will be welcomed here as we are in a deficit of precipitation.

Scorpion · #23 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Jun 07, 2006 11:27 pm

It shows about a 75 kt hurricane. Not bad for June.

CHRISTY · #24 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed Jun 07, 2006 11:28 pm

Scorpion wrote:Let me remind everyone that the GFDL many times is quite good at intensity several days out. Here was the GFDL forecast for Wilma when it was still an invest.

boy that image scared the crap out of me...but yea u are right that clearly was what wilma became a monster.

Extremeweatherguy · #25 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Jun 07, 2006 11:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:00z GFS at 138 Hours

00z GFS does not show anything that seems to be a cyclone,only a weak low. Look at 138 hours.

but MUCH further north than in other runs/models.

HurricaneHunter914 · #26 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed Jun 07, 2006 11:30 pm

The first time I saw that image I though the GFDL had problems, but then I was like WOW! They were right on.

#27 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 07, 2006 11:30 pm

00z GFS at 156 Hours

:uarrow:

At 156 hours GFS shows the low close to the Texas/Louisiana Coast.

#28 Postby **ericinmia** » Wed Jun 07, 2006 11:31 pm

The 00z MM5 is coming in...

Here is out to 60hours. It is still persistant on developing this system east of the Yucatan.

Extremeweatherguy · #29 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Jun 07, 2006 11:32 pm

cycloneye wrote:00z GFS at 156 Hours

At 156 hours GFS shows the low close to the Texas/Louisiana Coast.

It strengthens it to a TD or weak TS by the time it reaches that area too. Definite northward trend in the expected path.

Extremeweatherguy · #30 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Jun 07, 2006 11:34 pm

NAM/WRF model at 84 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_084l.gif

boca · #31 Postby **boca** » Wed Jun 07, 2006 11:36 pm

From the Eastern Pacific to the Western Caribbean something going to pop soon with the models sniffing out the atmosphere.

#32 Postby **ericinmia** » Wed Jun 07, 2006 11:41 pm

Here is the 00z MM5 at 84hr.

It has this TC developing east of the yucatan and moving almost NNNW :?:

Here it is at 96hr (developing and heading NNE)

Here it is at 108hr (Weaker... in Central GOM)

Extremeweatherguy · #33 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Jun 07, 2006 11:53 pm

ericinmia wrote:Here is the 00z MM5 at 84hr.

It has this TC developing east of the yucatan and moving almost NNNW

Here it is at 96hr (developing and heading NNE)

that looks like a more NNW movement.

#34 Postby **ericinmia** » Wed Jun 07, 2006 11:59 pm

I added the latest output...

I don't see any W movement between those two frames.
But, with the new frame its a defenative due N movement.

Interestingly... The mm5 is developing the EPAC and CARIB storms sepperately.
That seems a lot more plausible to me.

Here is the 120hr MM5 output...

wxmann_91 · #35 Postby **wxmann_91** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:01 am

ericinmia wrote:I added the latest output...

It now appears more of a due N movement.

Interestingly... The mm5 is developing the EPAC and CARIB storms sepperately.
That seems a lot more plausible to me.

It actually isn't. If these two storms were to form in such a fashion, they would kill each other. It doesn't make much sense.

I'd bet that this will end up a short-lived BOC storm ala Bret, Gert, and Jose of last year.

CHRISTY · #36 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:09 am

#37 Postby **ericinmia** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:09 am

wxmann_91 wrote:
ericinmia wrote:I added the latest output...

It now appears more of a due N movement.

Interestingly... The mm5 is developing the EPAC and CARIB storms sepperately.
That seems a lot more plausible to me.

It actually isn't. If these two storms were to form in such a fashion, they would kill each other. It doesn't make much sense.

I'd bet that this will end up a short-lived BOC storm ala Bret, Gert, and Jose of last year.

That makes little sense. Neither the EPAC nor the CARIB storm would be remotely strong enough or have an outflow large enough to excert the 'Fujiwara' effect upon the other. Any effects would be very minimal.

The mm5 is showing past 120hr that the EPAC system dies off. But the CARIB system can not be attributed to this. They are sepperated by such a distance that any effects one has on the other are trivial compared to the environmental factors being excerted upon them.

#38 Postby **ericinmia** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:14 am

Here you go Christy...

A nice Zoom in...

CHRISTY · #39 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:29 am

Here's another IR image...

#40 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:45 am

This Sat. loop makes this blob even look more interesting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Models Discussion About W Caribbean Low #3

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