Models Discussion about Possible BOC low thread #2

[StormScanWx]

What is BOC?

EDIT: Never mind. Bay of Campeche!!

[wxman57]

Here's the 12Z ECMWF 500mb wind/streamlines valid 7am CDT Tuesday. Note that if the EC verifies, it would be pretty hard for the system to reach Texas unless it develops its own propulsion system. Note that the EC surface map has a weak low in the central to southern Bay of Campeche at this time.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ec500.gif

[CHRISTY]

Guys check this out look at the yellows and greens in the pacific indicateing pretty good chances for development.But even more important this is the first we see DARK BLUE in the atlantic showing signs for development are increasing.

[bigmike]

Something tells me we'll have a 68 page thread over a weak depression at best. Ah how panic breeds panic.

[Stratosphere747]

"Color" me crazy, but it might just be time to discount a graph/model that shows development off the coast of New Jersey....

[JonathanBelles]

thats the "nor'easter" and its only a .7% chance

[Stratosphere747]

I remember when someone use to post the AVN model with a couple of responses and 20 views....

The good old days

I used to be one of those "lurkers" wondering what the heck these crazy people were talking about.

I remember fondly though that models were posted showing development. Even back then though, hardly anything ever did develop....

[HurricaneHunter914]

Guys check this out look at the yellows and greens in the pacific indicateing pretty good chances for development.But even more important this is the first we see DARK BLUE in the atlantic showing signs for development are increasing.

Later this hurricane season that map will be showing alot of red on it.

[CHRISTY]

On this Shear pic it shows shear in the gulf might be on the low side.SEE.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

No offense Christy but I find this map a little more accurate and easy to understand.

[wxman57]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

No offense Christy but I find this map a little more accurate and easy to understand.

Only problem with your map is it isn't a shear map. It's a shear tendency map, indicating where shear is decreasing or increasing. It doesn't indicate absolute shear.

The map CHRISTY posted indicates fairly high shear across the NW Gulf along the TX coast. With a mid-level ridge over the NE Gulf, that points to the only likely area of development as the central to southern Bay of Campeche. But then, one problem with CHRISTY's map is it's the Canadian model, one I'd tend to discount at least at the lower levels.

[CHRISTY]

animated MM5. shows something coming out of the caribbean.
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/animation.pl?id=MM5&mdl=grads/afwa/panel2&file=anim

[CHRISTY]

The image i posted shows the current genesis probability for tropical weather.it uses many factors to determine the probabilitys here's an explantion...http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/genesis_description.html

[tailgater]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

No offense Christy but I find this map a little more accurate and easy to understand.

Only problem with your map is it isn't a shear map. It's a shear tendency map, indicating where shear is decreasing or increasing. It doesn't indicate absolute shear.

The map CHRISTY posted indicates fairly high shear across the NW Gulf along the TX coast. With a mid-level ridge over the NE Gulf, that points to the only likely area of development as the central to southern Bay of Campeche. But then, one problem with CHRISTY's map is it's the Canadian model, one I'd tend to discount at least at the lower levels.

I thought those colors on the map show the amont of shear and the #'s show how much it's increasing(shown in solid white)and decreasing( shown in dotted aqua).

[wxman57]

I thought those colors on the map show the amont of shear and the #'s show how much it's increasing(shown in solid white)and decreasing( shown in dotted aqua).

You are correct that the colors on the map indicate the current shear across the map. But we're looking at shear potential next week, not today. CHRISTY's map showed the projected shear for 12Z next Monday, when there could be some development potential.

[benny]

I am going to LMBO when the models drop this "system". Seriosuly though. if we do get a system. Hopefully it brings some benificial rains to those that need it. Nothing more

This is different than the silly convective feedback 'canes the GFS was developing earlier in the season. There are quite realistic models now showing solutions which at least fit reason. In addition these large scale developments seem to be better forecast than some wave in the east atlantic. Hey I could be wrong.. but this one has got the eye of more than just the weatherweenies!

[cycloneye]

00z NAM

I know it's the NAM but anyway this 00z run shows the BOC low.Now let's see what the 00z runs of GFS,NOGAPS,CMC show.

[wxman57]

I am going to LMBO when the models drop this "system". Seriosuly though. if we do get a system. Hopefully it brings some benificial rains to those that need it. Nothing more

This is different than the silly convective feedback 'canes the GFS was developing earlier in the season. There are quite realistic models now showing solutions which at least fit reason. In addition these large scale developments seem to be better forecast than some wave in the east atlantic. Hey I could be wrong.. but this one has got the eye of more than just the weatherweenies!

I sure hope nothing develops, we're not ready for the season to start. Lots of work left to do. But if development does occur, then it's quite likely all we'd be looking at is a Bret-type storm (2005). Not likely it would become a hurricane. Typical early June development.

[benny]

Parallel NAM is similar through 54 hours:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_054l.gif

On a related note I think this version of the NAM is operational on 6/13.. ??!??

[CHRISTY]

I hope this doesn't come true from the GFDL...its probably over doing it strength wise.