Models Discussion about Possible BOC low thread #2

[CHRISTY]

Unfortunately, I am tending to think that something just might develop in the BoC early next week. I think that steering currents and the general pattern look similar to "Bret" of 2005, probably just a TS and probably into central Mexico rather than Texas.

but wxman57 there some serious DRY AIR in the gulf...isnt that going against any development?

[greg_kfdm_tv]

Agreed "57".

The upper air pattern is forecast to become more favorable for development by early next week.

In our area, we certainly can not tolerate any heavy rains or winds as many structures still have the dreaded blue roofs.

[cycloneye]

CapeVerdeWave,I edited part of the title to include BOC low instead of Caribbean Low.

[SouthFloridawx]

A better look at the 18Z gfs using the 850mb vorticity. As you can see it has an area of "low pressure" forming and moving from the EPAC and into the BOC then into Mexico.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

i doupt that will play out because DRY AIR rules in the gulf of mexico right now.

Yea but will it still be like that in 108 hours???

Exactly.... studying and observing weather I fail to understand why people think that just because conditions are currently what they are, will not change in the future. You have to get a grasp of the ever constantly changing climate that we have. I am from pennsylvania where the weather can go from 70's and sunny to 40's and miserable and rainy in a 12 hour period. No offense CHRISTY... this was not aimed at you.

[benny]

Hmm... now we have two significant models showing development in the BOC.. GFS/ECMWF and their respective ensembles... with the NOGAPS suggesting it and the UKMET from earlier just keeping it a little too far to the south. I think this will be TD 1 by late in the weekend after it emerges into the BOC. For whatever reason.. there is a huge monsoonal trough in the eastpac/west caribbean.. and systems love to form on the eastern edge of that trough... we shall see what we get. Note the NAM/CMC aren't really that good at genesis and mentioning them is really for fun!

in case anyone is interested there is some hints from the ECMWF/GFS about another chance after that...!!! (beyond 7 days)

[wxman57]

Unfortunately, I am tending to think that something just might develop in the BoC early next week. I think that steering currents and the general pattern look similar to "Bret" of 2005, probably just a TS and probably into central Mexico rather than Texas.

something crossing in from the eastpac or from the Caribbean?

From the Caribbean north of Honduras, mostly. But some moisture may track across the isthmus of Mexico into the BoC.

[Ivanhater]

Unfortunately, I am tending to think that something just might develop in the BoC early next week. I think that steering currents and the general pattern look similar to "Bret" of 2005, probably just a TS and probably into central Mexico rather than Texas.

something crossing in from the eastpac or from the Caribbean?

From the Caribbean north of Honduras, mostly. But some moisture may track across the isthmus of Mexico into the BoC.

ok

[Dean4Storms]

Folks, although the models are beginning to suggest that an organized area of low pressure is to form, where and how deeply it develops will play a large role as to where it could end up. On top of that, it is way too early to place any strong confidence in any one model or run. The models develop it everywhere from the BOC to the NW Carib. to the southern GOM, we will have to wait and see what transpires and if the models come more into agreement.

[Rainband]

Folks, although the models are beginning to suggest that an organized area of low pressure is to form, where and how deeply it develops will play a large role as to where it could end up. On top of that, it is way too early to place any strong confidence in any one model or run. The models develop it everywhere from the BOC to the NW Carib. to the southern GOM, we will have to wait and see what transpires and if the models come more into agreement.

I agree

[benny]

Folks, although the models are beginning to suggest that an organized area of low pressure is to form, where and how deeply it develops will play a large role as to where it could end up. On top of that, it is way too early to place any strong confidence in any one model or run. The models develop it everywhere from the BOC to the NW Carib. to the southern GOM, we will have to wait and see what transpires and if the models come more into agreement.

I agree

of course it is too early to say anything with confidence.. but things are coming together now.. the models are starting to key in on something (significant models not the silly NAM/CMC)... models also keep a pretty strong ridge over s texas so it appears to be more of a mexican thing.

Just one year ago Arlene was forming!!! This one looks to be a few days later (if it happens)... but it has a lot going for it in terms of large-scale patterns... I can't tell you how many times you get something close to Mexico when the ITCZ is that far north...

[Extremeweatherguy]

according to the Houston AFD...the ridge is suppose to retrograde westward during the early part of next week. If this happened, I think we could see a more northward path.

[deltadog03]

according to the Houston AFD...the ridge is suppose to retrograde westward during the early part of next week. If this happened, I think we could see a more northward path.

LOL....thats what I was saying before!! First, there is NO telling if anything will form to begin with. Then, the euro and gfs BOTH show the ridge breaking down and retrograding back WESTWARD....

[Extremeweatherguy]

according to the Houston AFD...the ridge is suppose to retrograde westward during the early part of next week. If this happened, I think we could see a more northward path.

LOL....thats what I was saying before!! First, there is NO telling if anything will form to begin with. Then, the euro and gfs BOTH show the ridge breaking down and retrograding back WESTWARD....

And if that happend, then the TX coast would be more of a target than Mexico. May be JB's idea of early season trouble in TX will play out.

[CHRISTY]

[skysummit]

I know they're not always accurate, but the gulf looks to be getting quite favorable in regards to shear in 72 hours.

[JonathanBelles]

when are the next models comng out

[deltadog03]

I am not gonna lie...I hope something weak does form and move our way. I hope it barely rains down towards yall but, rains itself out up here. We need the rain SOOOOO bad right now.

[CHRISTY]

guys the last time we had back to back seasons with a june system was in 1996-1997 if iam correct.2006?maybe.

[SouthFloridawx]

I know they're not always accurate, but the gulf looks to be getting quite favorable in regards to shear in 72 hours.

According to that image it seems as though a good portion of the basin will have low shear, not just the GOM.

[rockyman]

18z GFDL for Invest 93e: