Is the 00Z CMC on crack?
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Scott_inVA
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Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:So out of all of those models, The very best would be:
TPC/NHC
NOGAPS
BAMD
GFS
UKMET
EC
This is organized into the amount of times a model did good with a storm. All these models did good with more than one storms.
I suppose one could say for those events in 2005, yes.
It is helpful to know the strengths and weaknesses of various models and not simply pick a favorite and run with it.
Last year I was honking NOLA as Katrina shifted SW and came off Florida (I saved some of the "idiot" and "hypecaster" emails I received
). I did so in part because the GFDN and NOGAPS trended that way and had a good handle on downstream weather and Ridging. The GFS often had the right idea but was east of landfall. Knowing how models trend...even for a particular TC helps build confidence in specific models.
Despite doing the model maps on my site, I spend far more time during storms examining CONUS data. Once you evolve an idea on what is happening downstream from a hurricane the models will start to fit into your thinking. That presumes you are correct!
Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
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Scott_inVA
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HurricaneHunter914
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SouthFloridawx
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Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:So what would be the best model in your opinion that we should look to this year?
None of the models are the best but, if you discount the ones that are not performing well on a certain feature/system and go with the average of all of them you will probably get a pretty good idea of what is going to happen.
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HurricaneHunter914
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>>None of the models are the best but, if you discount the ones that are not performing well on a certain feature/system and go with the average of all of them you will probably get a pretty good idea of what is going to happen.
That should also come with a caveat based on what various models are doing in "x" increments of time. The GFS shows up in Top 5 a couple of times (72 hours), but if you look at its long term solutions, they are usually way off (especially in the deep tropics). As most people are aware, the GFS often wants to curve storms in the deep tropics out to sea. So if you're looking at anything beyond the 72 hours, I don't suggest you go with what it says. I find that generally where the NOGAPS, ECWMF and UKMET agree on a system in the future (beyond 72 hours), they're often onto something.
Steve
That should also come with a caveat based on what various models are doing in "x" increments of time. The GFS shows up in Top 5 a couple of times (72 hours), but if you look at its long term solutions, they are usually way off (especially in the deep tropics). As most people are aware, the GFS often wants to curve storms in the deep tropics out to sea. So if you're looking at anything beyond the 72 hours, I don't suggest you go with what it says. I find that generally where the NOGAPS, ECWMF and UKMET agree on a system in the future (beyond 72 hours), they're often onto something.
Steve
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Scott_inVA
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SouthFloridawx wrote:
None of the models are the best but, if you discount the ones that are not performing well on a certain feature/system and go with the average of all of them you will probably get a pretty good idea of what is going to happen.
The Premium Service weather section of Mid-Atlantic WX.com offers an analysis report for every model (sometimes 30+). I also use a few "consensus" model runs to quickly see changing trends. Subscribers get that 24/7
but I often post model performance updates here at s2k in the days leading upto a landfall.
Again I'll take the opportunity to say the Black Line is what we all like to see...but...TPCs Cone of Probability is what the public should monitor. Katrina should have taught that lesson to everyone.
Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
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CHRISTY
guys when we start seeing the GFS showin these things on a consistent basis then i think its maybe time to get concerned,but the CMC and the NAM are not good models.lets just see what developes in the coming weeks cause of right now to me conditions are not favorable for development.
SO THIS IS FOR YOU CMC AND NAM.....
SO THIS IS FOR YOU CMC AND NAM.....
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southerngale
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Scott_inVA wrote:Scorpion wrote:What models are good? It seems like the only good globals are the UKMET and GFS.
Gotta follow trends to see.
Top 5 from the "GOM 5's" last year:
EMILY
TPC/NHC
NOGAPS
BAMD
GFS
DSHP
KATRINA
NOGAPS (aviation tracker)
BAMD
UKMET
GFDL
EC
(note: NHC bombed at 72 hrs due to bad forecasting early in the storm cycle. Last 72 hours they were awesome)
WILMA
UKMET
NOGAPS (aviation tracker)
GFS
TPC/NHC
EC
This exclues less familiar models to the public but you get the idea.
Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
What about Rita? Rita was one of the GOM 5's that hit as a major.
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CHRISTY wrote:guys when we start seeing the GFS showin these things on a consistent basis then i think its maybe time to get concerned,but the CMC and the NAM are not good models.lets just see what developes in the coming weeks cause of right now to me conditions are not favorable for development.
SO THIS IS FOR YOU CMC AND NAM.....
What about the WRF, MM5??? Also Euro hinting...
Nobody has contested that the Euro and MM5 are also showing it now.
Take into account the MM5 is run off of the GFS.
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CHRISTY
ericinmia wrote:CHRISTY wrote:guys when we start seeing the GFS showin these things on a consistent basis then i think its maybe time to get concerned,but the CMC and the NAM are not good models.lets just see what developes in the coming weeks cause of right now to me conditions are not favorable for development.
SO THIS IS FOR YOU CMC AND NAM.....
What about the WRF, MM5??? Also Euro hinting...
Nobody has contested that the Euro and MM5 are also showing it now.
Take into account the MM5 is run off of the GFS.
WRF is no good to me.but yes the MM5 is part of the GFS but my point is nothin is going to develope right now there is just to much shear.
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HurricaneHunter914
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CHRISTY
Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF
Actually the shear is decreasing
635
ABNT20 KNHC 071511
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUN 07 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
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Scorpion
CHRISTY wrote:ericinmia wrote:CHRISTY wrote:guys when we start seeing the GFS showin these things on a consistent basis then i think its maybe time to get concerned,but the CMC and the NAM are not good models.lets just see what developes in the coming weeks cause of right now to me conditions are not favorable for development.
SO THIS IS FOR YOU CMC AND NAM.....
What about the WRF, MM5??? Also Euro hinting...
Nobody has contested that the Euro and MM5 are also showing it now.
Take into account the MM5 is run off of the GFS.
WRF is no good to me.but yes the MM5 is part of the GFS but my point is nothin is going to develope right now there is just to much shear.
WRF has an unproven track record. You can't just discount it.
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Extremeweatherguy
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CHRISTY wrote:Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF
Actually the shear is decreasing
635
ABNT20 KNHC 071511
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUN 07 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
Nothing should develop until this weekend or beyond (if anything even does). Next week looks like it will be much more favorable.
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CHRISTY
Scorpion wrote:CHRISTY wrote:ericinmia wrote:CHRISTY wrote:guys when we start seeing the GFS showin these things on a consistent basis then i think its maybe time to get concerned,but the CMC and the NAM are not good models.lets just see what developes in the coming weeks cause of right now to me conditions are not favorable for development.
SO THIS IS FOR YOU CMC AND NAM.....
What about the WRF, MM5??? Also Euro hinting...
Nobody has contested that the Euro and MM5 are also showing it now.
Take into account the MM5 is run off of the GFS.
WRF is no good to me.but yes the MM5 is part of the GFS but my point is nothin is going to develope right now there is just to much shear.
WRF has an unproven track record. You can't just discount it.
iam not discounting it...i just try to pay more more attention to the GFS ,NOGAPS,UKMET ETC...NAM and CMC arent my favorite.
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CHRISTY wrote:ericinmia wrote:CHRISTY wrote:guys when we start seeing the GFS showin these things on a consistent basis then i think its maybe time to get concerned,but the CMC and the NAM are not good models.lets just see what developes in the coming weeks cause of right now to me conditions are not favorable for development.
SO THIS IS FOR YOU CMC AND NAM.....
What about the WRF, MM5??? Also Euro hinting...
Nobody has contested that the Euro and MM5 are also showing it now.
Take into account the MM5 is run off of the GFS.
WRF is no good to me.but yes the MM5 is part of the GFS but my point is nothin is going to develope right now there is just to much shear.
The MM5 isn't part of the GFS. It is a higher resolution model that can use many global backdrops. It just happens to be that the MM5 from FSU uses the GFS. U of M uses other globals as backdrops on some runs.
Why are you discounting the NOGAPS putting a TC in the GOM?
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