Models Discussion about Possible BOC low thread #2

[Extremeweatherguy]

12Z NAM 84 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif
^^TS over Yucatan^^

12Z NAM/WRF experimental 84 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_084l.gif
^^Cat. 1 hurricane hitting Cancun^^

[JonathanBelles]

on that path it would hit tampa

[drezee]

The evolution of the model seems reasonable, even if experimental until next week.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... loop.shtml

[JonathanBelles]

or not, but i would much rater take the cat 1 than where that loops says it is going

[Stratusxpeye]

on that path it would hit tampa

I'm not seeing the path your seeing. Could you explain this please. I would love a TS through tampa right now Need the rain all we can get. I'd even take a CAT 1. Just not much more than that at this point. Would love for a ts or td to stall over here for a day or so though.

[JonathanBelles]

read my next post

[CHRISTY]

guys iam really not buying into any of what this models are saying just yet!visible images show nothing for the time being of course their is always the possibity that could change.but my point is the worst models are the ones that are showing this happening now i know the CMC ,the NAM the CANADIAN MODEL is also showin stuff but to me until i see the GFS showing what these models are saying iam not going to worry to much besides the NHC for the time being isnt that interested.so again we will wait to see what happens. chrisy

[Extremeweatherguy]

The evolution of the model seems reasonable, even if experimental until next week.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... loop.shtml

I don't like that slight NW turn at the end of the loop. If this does happen and it does take that turn, then the western and central Gulf will need to be on alert.

[jasons2k]

guys iam really not buying into any of what this models are saying just yet!visible images show nothing for the time being of course their is always the possibity that could change.but my point is the worst models are the ones that are showing this happening now i know the CMC ,the NAM the CANADIAN MODEL is also showin stuff but to me until i see the GFS showing what these models are saying iam not going to worry to much besides the NHC for the time being isnt that interested.so again we will wait to see what happens. chrisy

Indeed.

Notice the lack of interest from the pro-mets on this thread? That should tell you something.

[SWFLA_CANE]

Just looking at the 12z GFS run, it appears as if this model shows moisture around the Yucatan at around the 84 hour mark and then crosses it over the Yucatan and shows a little more organization by the 132 mark.

[Scorpion]

GFS will begin picking up on it soon.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

I may be wrong but do you think that blob over Cuba could be the cause of this possible low?

[skysummit]

The new CMC 12Z has flipped back to LA again. Flip flop flip flop...let's get uset to this!

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 96 hours

Nothing significant from 12z GFS at 96 hours,only a weak low near Belize.

[clfenwi]

Quote from HPC's preliminary forecast discussion. Recall that yesterday they added the Carribean low to their forecast.

IN THE GOMEX...DESPITE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SLOWER NAMP/WRF AND
NAM...DISCOUNTED THE TROP SYS THE CAN GLOB SENDS INTO THE FL
PNHNDL ON DAY 4/SUN. THE 00Z GLOB MODEL CONSENSUS IS TOWARD A
SLOW MOVING INVERTED TROF PASSING THRU THE GOMEX. WITH THE 00Z
NCEP MEAN LIKELY DAMPENING OUT THE FEATURE TOO MUCH...THE
GFS/ECMWF BLEND SOLN LOOKS REASONABLE HERE THRU THE PD.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Well at least Florida might get some really needed rain.

[clfenwi]

Pertinent parts of the HPC Model Diagnostic Discussion

(Model initialization section)

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NR CNTRL AMERICAN ISTHMUS...
THE NAM LOOKS A LITTLE STRONG AND TOO CLOSED PER THE SFC OBS IN
THE REGION AND THE MOST RECENT TAFB SFC ANALYSIS FOR THE REGION
ALL OF WHICH INDICATE A SHEARLINE/SFC TROUGH...NOT A SFC LOW. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WITH A BETTER UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS SEEN SSW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE EASTERN TROP PACIFIC
AND IS DEPICTED W/A SFC LOW.

(Model trends section)

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NR CNTRL AMERICAN ISTHMUS...
THE NAM IS SHOWING SURPRISINGLY GOOD CONTINUITY OVR ITS PAST 24
HRS OF RUNS IN MOVG A LOW OFF CNTRL AMERICA INTO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN AND ONWARD THRU THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN FORMING THE CURRENT SYS ON THE PAC SIDE OF THE
ISTHMUS OVR ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS AND KEEPS IT
QUASI-STATIONARY. THE NAM PARALLEL/WRF HAS SHIFTED A BIT
SWWD...ROUGHLY 200 NM... FROM ITS 06/12Z SOLN.

(Model preferences section)

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NR CNTRL AMERICAN ISTHMUS...
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE
ISTHMUS...THE ECMWF/GFS SOLNS ARE CONSIDERED MORE LIKELY THAN THE
NAM AND NAM PARALLEL SOLNS... WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 24 HR
TREND SEEN IN THE NAM PARALLEL CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GYRE ON THE
PACIFIC SIDE OVR ANY PSBL DVLPMTS IN THE NWRN CARIBBEAN/GULF OF
MEX THROUGH 84 HRS. THE CANADIAN CONTS TO BE DISCOUNTED. SEE THE
TWOEP /TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK/ AND PMDEPD /MEDIUM RANGE
DISCUSSION/ FOR MORE THE LATEST ON THIS DISTURBED AREA AND THE
PREFERRED SOLN FROM DAY 3 ONWARD RESPECTIVELY.

[clfenwi]

Last discussion from HPC on this today

THE NAMP/WRF... NAM... AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
CENTRAL AMERICA/NWRN CARIBBEAN... WITH THE CMC STILL BRINGING THE
SYSTEM NWD THRU THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE AGGRESSIVE SOLNS WILL
REMAIN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. AS PER MIDDAY COORDINATION WITH
TPC/NHC... FINAL SFC PROGS REFLECT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE ERN PAC EXTENDING A TROF NEWD. THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS TROF
WITH EMBEDDED SFC LOW PROGRESSES FROM THE EXTREME NWRN CARIBBEAN
ON DAY 3 TO THE SWRN/S-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Last discussion from HPC on this today

THE NAMP/WRF... NAM... AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
CENTRAL AMERICA/NWRN CARIBBEAN... WITH THE CMC STILL BRINGING THE
SYSTEM NWD THRU THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE AGGRESSIVE SOLNS WILL
REMAIN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. AS PER MIDDAY COORDINATION WITH
TPC/NHC... FINAL SFC PROGS REFLECT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE ERN PAC EXTENDING A TROF NEWD. THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS TROF
WITH EMBEDDED SFC LOW PROGRESSES FROM THE EXTREME NWRN CARIBBEAN
ON DAY 3 TO THE SWRN/S-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

and once it reaches the southern Gulf...it may explode into a TS next week. If it does develop it will probably stay weak and sheared. I do not see it getting much stronger than a TS/Cat. 1 Hurricane (if even).

[Scorpion]

The Euro is now coming aboard with something developing in the BOC.