93E Invest at EPAC

[tailgater]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
This is probably the system that some of the models are developing and moving NW or N.

[beachbum_al]

When you say it is moving NW or N where would that be located. I couldn't get the website to show anything. Could be my internet?

[ericinmia]

I belive that is the Low that the UKMET ran on yesterday afternoon. I posted the Results in the other thread about the low forming in the NW carribean....

The nogaps turns this storm into a pretty strong one.

[tailgater]

When you say it is moving NW or N where would that be located. I couldn't get the website to show anything. Could be my internet?

I'm just saying the models want to move it NW or N and the Invest is brand new, the data will come in soon.

[ericinmia]

The UKMET at 12z today was predicting a new TS out south of central mexico...
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... wtnt80.txt

The Euro has that pegged to become a stronger storm (12z run though)...

This is what i had posted yesterday in the other thread...

Damn... Now looking at the UKMET data, they have dropped it as an possible area of formation. ?? lol they drop as soon as NRL adds it.

[Cape Verde]

As long as it stays on the Pacific side, I'm happy.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Amen, we don't need anymore major hurricanes coming up into the gulf like last year.

[HURAKAN]

As long as it stays on the Pacific side, I'm happy.

And moves away from any populated area.

[ericinmia]

The new NOGAPS that i posted in the other thread on the SW Carib. storm is now showing that it thinks only the sw carib storm will develop and has stopped developing the storm west of mexico in the Epac

[HurricaneHunter914]

Uh Oh, isn't NOGAPS a reliable model because I still don't know which models are reliable and which ones are not.

[tailgater]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/SCA ... 0_-100.gif
Quick scat for this morning.
I was looking at the W. Hem. sat loop of the Central America area, this could be a huge system with the potential to be very heavy rain maker for where it (if it) makes landfall if it should deepen and draw from this very broad but huge circulation.
If you look at loop, seems as if the best turning is just south of El Salvador but the Quik Scat doesn't pickup this area.

[tailgater]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/pac ... BW_sm3.gif
Tafb forecast for 72 hrs. out.

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 071728
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93E

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUN 7

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.7 95.0 275./ 5.0
6 13.5 95.5 251./ 5.4
12 13.5 95.7 276./ 1.8
18 13.6 96.6 276./ 9.0
24 13.4 95.9 109./ 6.9
30 13.1 96.3 223./ 4.9
36 13.3 96.4 342./ 2.3
42 13.1 96.6 237./ 3.0
48 13.2 97.4 281./ 7.3
54 13.1 97.5 240./ 1.9
60 13.2 97.8 291./ 2.5
66 13.0 97.8 180./ 2.8
72 12.9 97.4 106./ 3.5
78 13.1 97.0 64./ 4.9
84 13.7 96.4 45./ 8.2
90 14.5 95.8 36./10.0
96 15.3 95.6 10./ 8.4
102 15.6 95.7 343./ 2.7
108 15.7 95.8 312./ 1.2
114 17.0 95.8 3./13.3
120 18.1 95.7 0./11.5
126 18.8 95.8 357./ 6.3



12z GFDL has it almost crawling northward in the general area near the coast.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

This Invest has a chance to form as long as it stays clear of that shear.

[SouthFloridawx]

Check out the Visible satelite on this one. It's looking pretty good this afternoon.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/vis-l.jpg

Realy cause I see no difference.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/vis-l.jpg

Realy cause I see no difference.

Ok put your glasses on and run the animation.

EDIT: Ok sorry that came off as a little rude. I didn't mean it that way... long day at work

[HurricaneHunter914]

Its okay, actually I kinda laughed at your remark.

[SouthFloridawx]

[HurricaneHunter914]

You really can't pick out a center of circulation though on Invest 93E.