Possible El Nino Scenario

[boca]

The following link's NCEP report suggests that subsurface temp./oceanic heat content anom.'s often lead SST anom.'s:


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... 84,8,Slide

On slide #8 of this NCEP report, compare the second and third charts along a straight edge and you will be able to see the strong tendency for oceanic heat content anom.'s to lead SST anom.'s by several months.

The following time sensitive chart shows the subsurface tropical Pacific warmth, which based on the NCEP report, will in my opinion likely lead to an El Nino soon:



Note that subsurface anom.'s at the 100 meter depth of NINO 3.4 (120 W to
170 W) have risen from the +0.5 C to +1.0 C range as of 5/8 all the way to the +1.0 to +2.0 C range as of 5/23, only 15 days later.

Check the following link for weekly SST anom.'s in ENSO regions:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst.for

Note the quite rapid rise in the NINO 3.4 region. In that region, they rose during an 18 week period from -1.1 C (La Nina) as of 1/25/06 all the way to +0.4 C (only 0.1 C from the threshold for El Nino) as of 5/31/06. I've found only three periods since 1990 for which it rose more rapidly than 1.5 C in 18 weeks: early 2000, mid 1997, and late 1991. So, this rapid a rise is pretty significant. The combination of the rapid SST rise with already quite warm and warming subsurface anomalies tells me that the chances of us moving into an El Nino this summer or early fall are increasing substantially.

This was from another forum what do you think Pro mets. Author GaWx

[Steve]

You probably should have credited the author.

It's a plausible scenario. Things have been bouncing back and forth the last few years.

Steve

[boca]

Steve I fixed it thanks.

[Aquawind]

I mentioned the warming awhile back it has changed a lot over there..

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... zteq.shtml

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/i ... tlon.shtml

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=84858

I would not be surprised at all if it happened..

[boca]

Maybe are hurricane season will be below average if this happens in the Atlantic. I spent all this money on Accordian shutters for this season so will be safe. Ha ha. We can use an inactive season after last years record season.

[mobilebay]

Maybe are hurricane season will be below average if this happens in the Atlantic. I spent all this money on Accordion shutters for this season so will be safe. Ha ha.

Even if this occurs.In my opinion it is a longshot.The lag time on global patterns would not likely effect the heart of the 2006 season. May shutdown October though. I have not seen any agencies jumping on this scenerio.So please don't sound the "this season is a dudd" horn yet.

[boca]

No I'm not sounding the alarm. I would personally like an inactive season this year and for once be out of the cone of death.

[MiamiensisWx]

Very interesting scenario... LarryWx (who is the GaWx boca is referring to) has outlined that scenario and potential outcome.

I don't think the patterns support an El Nino this year, but it has a good possibility of supporting an El Nino at the very end of this year or next year. I'm with neutral through the season, gradually shifting to a neutral/warm bias, followed by a possible weak El Nino forming.

[Scorpion]

This is ridiculous. The season hasn't even started yet and people are already saying it'll be inactive. 2005 spoiled so many people.

[Steve]

Say it was to happen, and if it pans out in time, what implications that has on the season. No doubt almost all of us will have overestimated the number of storms and certainly many seasonal prediction teams/firms/forecasters may have sold the wrong landfall regions.
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I also see it neutral for the heart of the season with maybe a bias to warm late (subsequent Spring 2007 reversal back to neutral could portend a possible Gulf season in 2007). Right now, there are still trof and energy splits (often associated with La Nina conditions), and no semi-permanent strong El Nino season Atlantic TUTT features have become particularly prominent.

In other words, it looks like we're in "neutral" to me.

Steve

[HurricaneHunter914]

Did you guys hear what the NHC said? THIS YEAR WILL BE ANOTHER ACTIVE YEAR! With over 15 named storms, over 10 hurricane, and over 5 major hurricanes forecasted how can people say this season will be a dud?! Some people are really ignorant.

[mobilebay]

Did you guys hear what the NHC said? THIS YEAR WILL BE ANOTHER ACTIVE YEAR! With over 15 named storms, over 10 hurricane, and over 5 major hurricanes forecasted how can people say this season will be a dud?! Some people are really ignorant.

I don't think anyone is ignorant, in fact they may be onto something. It just takes several months for this to evolve,and change weather patterns around the world (shear increase in the Atlantic).By the time this happens I think the damage will be done. JMHO

[MWatkins]

Without going through everyting yet again tonight I do not think this is an immediate indicator that Nino is coming.

Dateline cloudiness near the equator in the Pacific is still less than normal, OLR values in the last month in the Pacific are positive, suggesting less cloud cover, and overall the atmosphere, other than some westerly wind anoms, is not behaving as if a Nino is emminent.

The Atlantic is still warm as well.

We are coming toward the end of the predictability barrier for ENSO...if something wacky is going to happen the window is still open for another 3 weeks or so.

With this latest MJO pulse perhaps fading I think we are still on the road to netural, with perhaps, perhaps, a late season Nino kicking in.

MW

[Hurricaneman]

It looks like it will be a positive neutral until October when I think it will become a weak El Nino

[cycloneye]

NOAA will tell us more about this when they release tommorow their June outlook for ENSO.

I would not mind if el nino kicks in to spoil what all forecasters haved been saying about an active season.I want those people in the Gulf coast to not suffer more as still they are recuparating from the past 2 years landfalls.

[canegrl04]

Its been almost 10 years since the last big el Nino event.We're do for another strong one,since tEl Ninos typically occure once every 5-7 years. I hope we don't see another one like 1997 but given how whacky the weather has been,I wouldn't be surprised.

[Stratusxpeye]

I am not fully educated on the effects of el nino and la nina on the atlantic sst's or weather in general especially hurricane patterns. Does anyone have an educational link to a good reading on this effect or can anyone give a description of the result if an el nino set in late this season? And why was 1997 so odd? Thanks.

[Aquawind]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... enso.shtml

Impacts..

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... acts.shtml

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... acts.shtml

Enjoy