TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) June 2006 season forecast=14/8/3

[HURRICANELONNY]

According to TSR : the August to September SST's in the equatorial east ern pacific are now forecast to be slightly warmer then thought previously. He may be on to something like possibly a weak El Nino. SOI has been negative and the sub surface temperatures have been warmer then normal: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... zteq.shtml

[wxman57]

TSR's numbers look quite reasonable. I was quite surprised that Dr. Gray (Phil, now) didn't lower the predictions on May 31. A season with 17 or more named storms is a quite rare occurrence.

[CHRISTY]

2004 was a year with lots of activity and quickly turned of because of an el nino that formed right?

[LarryWx]

Though I don't expect an El Nino to form this year, La Nina has just about no chance of coming back in even a mild form.

I give El Nino a 90% chance of forming by no later than OCT.

[SouthFloridawx]

Though I don't expect an El Nino to form this year, La Nina has just about no chance of coming back in even a mild form.

I give El Nino a 90% chance of forming by no later than OCT.

Perhaps you could share with us why you came to that conclusion. Thanks

[LarryWx]

Though I don't expect an El Nino to form this year, La Nina has just about no chance of coming back in even a mild form.

I give El Nino a 90% chance of forming by no later than OCT.

Perhaps you could share with us why you came to that conclusion. Thanks

Please look back in this thread at my posts regarding both warm subsurface anomalies as well as rapidly warming surface anomalies. Pay close attention to the charts/links I provide as supporting evidence for my prediction, thus showing I'm not just saying it for the heck of it. Thanks.

[P.K.]

I suppose the explanation is that Australia and NOAA measure the average anom.'s differently. Regardless, my statement still stands for the NOAA data, and the strong trend is clearly evident in that Australian data regardless with a still very significant 1.3 C increase over that 18 week period.

I guess that partly explains why the NOAA said it was a La Nina but it never got past neutral with the BoM. The subsurface water close to central America has certainly warmed over the last few months. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/sub_surf_may.gif

[OuterBanker]

I'll take it. Far less alarming than CSU, accuweather and others.

Maybe someone should start a poll on which forecast will be the closest.

At the end of the season whoever wins get a free weekend in the 9th ward.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm wondering why people think this year we'll have El Nino. Is it because the SST's are not as warm as last year causing people to relax thinking this will be an easy season or is it another reason.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Here's one sign:http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/30DaySOIValues/ and there are other signs if you read previous posts. Not to say there will be a bonafide El Nino but warmer then normal could also reduce the numbers.

[LarryWx]

Though I don't expect an El Nino to form this year, La Nina has just about no chance of coming back in even a mild form.

I give El Nino a 90% chance of forming by no later than OCT.

I know that this isn't going to be popular here, but I'm still sticking with this 6/6 statement of mine indicating my expectation of an El Nino, notwithstanding the fact that both NOAA and Australia are still going with neutral for the forseeable future.

7/06 is about over. 7/06 will mark the third straight month of a fairly solid -SOI. With that in mind and based on my statistical studies as well as upper subsurface equatorial Pacific temp.'s, I see no reason at this time to back away from my giving El Nino a 90% chance of forming by no later than OCT. This would require a trimonthly NINO 3.4 region SST anomaly of +0.5 or higher by no later than OCT (i.e. SEP-NOV avg.). I may even raise it to above 90% soon.

I educatedly guessed/predicted in mid June on another BB that there would only be 9 NS, 4 H, and 2 MH in 2006 based on my feeling that El Nino would start by this fall. Despite the fact that we're currently slightly ahead of average in #NS for 7/27 with two, I'm sticking with this educated guess. That is because of my analysis that has shown no lag on average between the onset of El Nino by fall and that year's hurricane season. I've also studied the SOI. My study of pretty solidly negative SOI months has shown little to essentially no lag between solidly -SOI July's (especially more negative than -9) and the following August's as well as overall season's overall # NS/H on average. July's SOI shouldn't end up more negative than -9. However, it won't be too far away. Let's see what happens this hurricane season.

[windycity]

You MAY be on to something with your Elnino theory, but that doesnt mean that this season will be below average. Remember that 2004 ended with mild Elnino conditions!!

[LarryWx]

You MAY be on to something with your Elnino theory, but that doesnt mean that this season will be below average. Remember that 2004 ended with mild Elnino conditions!!

Yes windycity, good point. Weather is rarely black and white, and just about anything is still possible in 2006. Consider that 1969 was a weak El Nino and yet it produced 18 NS! The weaker the El Nino, the less it hinders storm development on average. However, it still tends to have some hindering effect. Therefore, I'm betting on a slightly below average # of NS and a somewhat below average # of H for 2006, although I'm still going with an active four U.S. landfalls from the nine NS. My predictions are what I feel were/are the best guesses I could make given the data I've analyzed.

[wxmann_91]

I educatedly guessed/predicted in mid June on another BB that there would only be 9 NS, 4 H, and 2 MH in 2006 based on my feeling that El Nino would start by this fall. Despite the fact that we're currently slightly ahead of average in #NS for 7/27 with two, I'm sticking with this educated guess. That is because of my analysis that has shown no lag on average between the onset of El Nino by fall and that year's hurricane season. I've also studied the SOI. My study of pretty solidly negative SOI months has shown little to essentially no lag between solidly -SOI July's (especially more negative than -9) and the following August's as well as overall season's overall # NS/H on average. July's SOI shouldn't end up more negative than -9. However, it won't be too far away. Let's see what happens this hurricane season.

Although I agree with you that a moderate El Nino may develop later this year, I'm skeptical that it will be that quiet.

Of course, with the active EPAC and the fact that nature tends to even things out (hyperactive seasons usually are followed by quiet seasons), heck, anything could happen. I'm starting to think my MH # prediction may be off, although, 9 NS's may be too conservative.