I'm impressed with the system at 10 north/110 west

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow look at that deep convection in outflow banding...Got to look at mroe data but will post as I can.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah looking at it seems to have at least a MLC if not a LLC developing. Convection increasing over the system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/loop-vis.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok talk to you all tomarrow see what happens

[bombarderoazul]

This could be our next invest.

[CHRISTY]

Hey guys whats up?here a IR loop of this tropical wave in the epac which i will say has a pretty good structure to it.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_TROPEPAC/anim8ir.html

[Aquawind]

This could be our next invest.

Agreed

Although.. No mention in the TWO or TWD yet and upper level winds don't seem to be favorable for a couple days. We will be watching..

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061625
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1000 AM PDT TUE JUN 06 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR EL SALVADOR. A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIES THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL
AMERICA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHEAST MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER ROTH

$$

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1556.shtml?

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W FROM 6N TO 14N MOVING W 10 KT. MINOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE PRESENT NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND UPPER ENVIRON REMAINS UNFAVORABLE FOR NEXT 48
HRS.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG...10N86W 10N111W 9N120W
10N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 360 NM OF AXIS E OF 114W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF 11N131W AND W OF 135W.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGE 1022 MB CENTERED NW OF AREA
16N110W MAINTAINING STRONG N FLOW AGAINST COASTS OF CALIFORNIA
AND BAJA WITH LARGE 13 FT SWELLS SPREADING S TO 24N. UNUSUALLY
LARGE AREA OF MOIST WARM S TO SW CROSS EQUATORIAL WIND REMAINS S
OF 13N E OF 110W FEEDING ITCZ. ASSOCIATED LARGE SLY SWELLS E OF
100W.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wonder why the NHC doesn't show much interest in this system.

[artist]

would they mention it in the atlantic twd? Don't they have a seperate one for the pacific?

[MiamiensisWx]

I am very surprised that this hasn't been listed as an INVEST yet. QUICKSCAT shows some isolated 25KT winds and a broad circulation that has been apparent in visible imagery loops most of the day. Also, shear has been decreasing most of the day over the wave system/possible developing low. Outflow is also well-established, and consolidation attempting is very visible.

Current shear

This definately has deserved an INVEST classification today.

[Aquawind]

would they mention it in the atlantic twd? Don't they have a seperate one for the pacific?

Not in the Atl.. Yes that is the EPAC TWD info..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

[MiamiensisWx]

Not bad at all!

[Aquawind]

Well they do mention it in the latest TWO for the EPAC.. nice blob tonight.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 062235
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT TUE JUN 6 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD ARE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AMERICA... SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

[HurricaneHunter914]

Now I find that hard to beleive, TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION NOT ANTICIPATED?! It has 30 mph winds which is TD strength aswell as evident circulation. But obviously the NHC has another reason to not upgrade: Their reason is probably that "The stars are not in position" or "King Neptune forbids it".

[SouthFloridawx]

I can't find one forecast model pointing out tropical development. Maybe you can help me find it but, I don't think it's there.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

[JonathanBelles]

ive found this year that the nhc has not upgrade a lot of storms this year

[SouthFloridawx]

There doesn't appear to be a closed off circulation yet. Maybe in the next day or two.

[Jim Cantore]

very impressive wave, I'd expect an invest within 12-18 hours

[JonathanBelles]

impressive

[Jim Cantore]

We might be looking at Bud here, not yet but eventually

[HurricaneHunter914]

Hopefully the NHC will make this an invest, this may affect people Hawaii.