00z NAM

[clfenwi]

From the HPC's extended forecast discussion:

DISTURBED WEATHER AREA WEST OF CNTRL AMERICA...
THE CANADIAN MDL CONTINUES TO TRACK THIS SYS INTO LOUISIANA...
THOUGH IT IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY MORE WWD EACH RUN ACRS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NAM AND NAM PARALLEL
ALSO EMPHASIZE A SYS ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE CNTRL AMERICAN ISTHMUS
...WHICH IS LIKELY THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE HONDURAS THE MDLS TRIED TO
RECURVE ACRS CUBA THIS PAST WEEKEND. CONSIDERING THAT A MORE
CONVECTIVE SYS APPEARS TO EXIST WEST OF CNTRL AMERICA...PLAN ON
TRACKING IT NR THE SRN MEXICAN COAST THRU THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THIS PD...SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN CONTINUITY. AS A NOD TWDS THE ELY
GUIDANCE...THE WEAK LOW CURRENTLY OVR THE WRN CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN
ADDED AND IS TRACKED ACRS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE RIDGE ACRS THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD KEEP WHATEVER
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE UNITED STATES.

[Extremeweatherguy]

it "should" keep it south of the U.S., but if the ridge shifts NE than we are going to have a potential issue.

[Scorpion]

By the way isnt wrf/nam expertimental.

No. It becomes operational as an official model in one week.

[cycloneye]

drezee why you say that what Scorpion posted as a Graphic of NAM is a fake?

[jasons2k]

I'm not biting until I see something other than the NAM and FSUMM5. Those 2 models are the last 2 we should be looking at for development.

[drezee]

I'm not biting until I see something other than the NAM and FSUMM5. Those 2 models are the last 2 we should be looking at for development.

a small twist has formed on the western tip of Jam as well...maybe they are on to something

[cycloneye]

drezee this is important,for a second time I ask,why you say that what Scorpion posted as a Graphic of NAM is a fake?

[drezee]

drezee this is important,for a second time I ask,why you say that what Scorpion posted as a Graphic of NAM is a fake?

OK, I already changed my comment to very experimental 20 minutes ago. The thing that I believed was fake was the HURRICANE in the Caribbean! I changed my verbage to clear up any confusion.

He is using the NAM/WRF Experimental model.

Why is this issue so important?

[cycloneye]

drezee this is important,for a second time I ask,why you say that what Scorpion posted as a Graphic of NAM is a fake?

OK, I already changed my comment to very experimental 20 minutes ago. The thing that I believed was fake was the HURRICANE in the Caribbean! I changed my verbage to clear up any confusion.

He is using the NAM/WRF Experimental model.

Why is this issue so important?

Ok good,but since originnaly you used the word fake but later you edited I had to ask to clear this up.

It's important that any of the information that is posted here or on any thread is not false information because it goes against the rules of storm2k.

[drezee]

drezee this is important,for a second time I ask,why you say that what Scorpion posted as a Graphic of NAM is a fake?

OK, I already changed my comment to very experimental 20 minutes ago. The thing that I believed was fake was the HURRICANE in the Caribbean! I changed my verbage to clear up any confusion.

He is using the NAM/WRF Experimental model.

Why is this issue so important?

Ok good,but since originnaly you used the word fake but later you edited I had to ask to clear this up.

Fake means:
something which is not genuine

I believe that there will not be a hurricane in that spot at that time...so yes I called it fake...maybe we should have a "verbage" disclaimer as well...


The following post is NOT what you think it is and should not be thought of as such. It is just the text of the poster and does not include non-verbal human interaction and communication. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org.

[skysummit]

...but because you "say" it's fake, doesn't mean it's fake...therefore that's false information.

[CHRISTY]

guys that was not fake....

[drezee]

The NWS and NHC uses the word “spurious” instead of fake, but they mean essentially the same thing.

Spurious: Lacking authenticity or validity in essence or origin; not genuine; false
Fake: something which is not genuine
http://66.161.12.81/search?r=10&q=spurious
http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=fake


The following post is NOT what you think it is and should not be thought of as such. It is just the text of the poster and does not include non-verbal human interaction and communication. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org.

[Stratusxpeye]

[quote="drezee"][/quote]

You can not say the image is fake though. It was pulled from the real run of that real model. Nothing about it is fake. Just bc someone does belive that the system may not be there at that time and strength does not mean it is fake.

If that's true than all our weather models and forecasts are all "fake" bc maybe only 5% everything verifys 100% accuretly. THe image and model is real!

[rockyman]

12z Canadian still shows system crossing over:

[drezee]

You can not say the image is fake though. It was pulled from the real run of that real model. Nothing about it is fake. Just bc someone does belive that the system may not be there at that time and strength does not mean it is fake.

If that's true than all our weather models and forecasts are all "fake" bc maybe only 5% everything verifys 100% accuretly. THe image and model is real!

That is a run of an experimental model. It is currently used for forecasting. I believe that model is very experimental! I also believe that hurricane is spurious.

Is that clear enough...

[rockyman]

12z UKMet shows an EPac system travelling east then dissipating south of Central America

[Scorpion]

You can not say the image is fake though. It was pulled from the real run of that real model. Nothing about it is fake. Just bc someone does belive that the system may not be there at that time and strength does not mean it is fake.

If that's true than all our weather models and forecasts are all "fake" bc maybe only 5% everything verifys 100% accuretly. THe image and model is real!

That is a run of an experimental model. It is currently used for forecasting. I believe that model is very experimental! I also believe that hurricane is spurious.

Is that clear enough...

The model is set to be officially operational on June 13. It is the replacement of the ETA.

[drezee]

You can not say the image is fake though. It was pulled from the real run of that real model. Nothing about it is fake. Just bc someone does belive that the system may not be there at that time and strength does not mean it is fake.

If that's true than all our weather models and forecasts are all "fake" bc maybe only 5% everything verifys 100% accuretly. THe image and model is real!

That is a run of an experimental model. It is currently used for forecasting. I believe that model is very experimental! I also believe that hurricane is spurious.

Is that clear enough...

The model is set to be officially operational on June 13. It is the replacement of the ETA.

OK, how does that invalidate my statement above? The key word used above is "current"...the date you quoted is in the "future".

[cycloneye]

Ok folks the thread reached the limit of 199 replies or ten full pages.Now a new thread about this theme will be made by Scorpion or anyone if he is not here when this one is locked.