00z NAM

[skysummit]

I'm afraid to even look at what you all are talking about.

[Rainband]

Thanks Airforcemet and Wxman57.

[SouthFloridawx]

I totally understood what Airforcemet and Wxman57 were saying about the NAM. However the GFS and the Nogaps is starting to show possible areas of low pressure towards the end of thier 5 day runs. I was merely posting the NAM because that is what this thread is about.

[JonathanBelles]

whens the next model run comeout?

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, even the reg. NAM shows a 1004mb low, which is in the range of a TD or weak TS.

[SouthFloridawx]

whens the next model run comeout?

Next we'll be waiting for the 12Z GFS which should be coming out soon.

Then we'll wait on the UKMET 12Z, CMC 12Z and the Nogaps 12Z run.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Joe Bastardi's morning post says that the Gulf will get very active over the next 1-2 weeks. He also said that this next period of disturbed weather will have more to it than just rain along the TX coast. Pretty much I think he is thinking a TD or TS may be in the near future.

[Rainband]

Joe Bastardi's morning post says that the Gulf will get very active over the next 1-2 weeks. He also said that this next period of disturbed weather will have more to it than just rain along the TX coast. Pretty much I think he is thinking a TD or TS may be in the near future.

Thats a pretty bold statement.

[Opal storm]

Joe Bastardi's morning post says that the Gulf will get very active over the next 1-2 weeks. He also said that this next period of disturbed weather will have more to it than just rain along the TX coast. Pretty much I think he is thinking a TD or TS may be in the near future.

Is it just me or does he say something like this every week?And how does he know there will be a td/ts near TX soon?Sounds like he's just saying that becuase he has TX under high risk this season.I wouldn't get too excited over what he says.

[Jim Hughes]

The solar wind relationship with tropical development/enhancement will continue if this system forms. We started to come under the influence of a coronal windstream overnight. The hourly average is approaching 500 km/sec. It reached the 600 plus level last time around last month.

TD 2E in the EPAC also formed this week while we were under the influence of a different coronal hole. I had previously stated in it's thread the other day that the > 2Mev electron fluence levels would probably not go that high. ( > 0.0e+07 )

They did not and TD 2E did not strengthen. Other favorable factors were also absent. The > 2 MeV should go above the above listed threshold during the next 24-48 hours. This will be conducive for development.

You will see the solar wind speed by looking under the "Solar Wind Bulk Speed " heading.


I wonder how many times this relationship has to show up before the experts/skeptics disregard this as just a coincidence? Or junk science?

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ac ... pam_1h.txt


Jim

[skysummit]

Your posts are very interesting Jim. I look forward to more of them as the season goes on.

[Stratusxpeye]

Very intersting. I too will look forward to see if the relation continues. So we should see a system according to some of the model runs and the space information from jim. Hmm Wait and see ... again.

[KWT]

No what stopped TD-2E from getting stronger was the fact that it had dry air to its west and it was practically on top of land when it stopped getting stronger (It did gain 5mph before getting too close to land)
Still I look foward to hearing more from you jim to see if you can prove to us on here your ideas are true.

[curtadams]

Probably two of the worst models for tropical systems are the NAM and Canadian. They're pretty clueless, developing storms in the middle of high-shear environments. Lots of people here can't wait for that first named storm, so they're latching onto any model that provides the slightest "hope" of development. One could even say that "W" word...

Not yet - "wishcaster"

Still not fixed - scary

[Dean4Storms]

Air Force Met wrote:

Have you looked at the upper levels "associated" with this surface feature?

Who's to say which forecast at each level is 100% correct? I believe it was you or wxman57 that stated that you can't depend on long range upper level forecasts, especially in the tropics where few UL readings are taken, which is very true indeed. The UL forecasts could be wrong and the SFC forecasts could be right. But like you say, one or the other has to be correct for something or nothing to take place!

[Steve]

>>Is it just me or does he say something like this every week?And how does he know there will be a td/ts near TX soon?Sounds like he's just saying that becuase he has TX under high risk this season.I wouldn't get too excited over what he says.

But if it happens, will you start a thread respecting his authority? /cartman

Steve

[TampaFl]

Joe Bastardi's morning post says that the Gulf will get very active over the next 1-2 weeks. He also said that this next period of disturbed weather will have more to it than just rain along the TX coast. Pretty much I think he is thinking a TD or TS may be in the near future.

Is it just me or does he say something like this every week?And how does he know there will be a td/ts near TX soon?Sounds like he's just saying that becuase he has TX under high risk this season.I wouldn't get too excited over what he says.

JB did not say there would be a TD/TS near Texas, just that the GOM would need to be watched next week and that it could be more than a rain producer like the one that affected the Texas coast last week. No where did he say that Texas or any one would be affected.

Robert

[Rainband]

Thanks, that explains it. Friendly reminer to everyone, DO NOT post false information on S2K. This is against our rules Hopefully this was a misunderstanding

[Stratusxpeye]

Joe Bastardi's morning post says that the Gulf will get very active over the next 1-2 weeks. He also said that this next period of disturbed weather will have more to it than just rain along the TX coast. Pretty much I think he is thinking a TD or TS may be in the near future.

If the post is read thoroughly, everything is accurate and correct. He concludes his paragraph with " Pretty much (Meaning his [Extremeweatherguy's] conclusion) I, (extremeweatherguy) THINK he is THINKING a TD or TS MAY be in the near FUTURE."

He maybe should have used quotes and separated his conclusion from the main paragraph. I believe it was def just mis interpretation.

[jasons2k]

Thanks, that explains it. Friendly reminer to everyone, DO NOT post false information on S2K. This is against our rules Hopefully this was a misunderstanding

Thanks for that reminder Rainband. I dunno if JB is a magnet for this or what, but when I used to read his columns, they were constantly misquoted/misinterpreted here on S2K which just fueled the fire that he was crazy.

It's just like the old game where you sit in a circle and the last person gets a totally different message. JB may say something like "keep an eye on the GOM next week as a wave moves NW from the Caribbean...IF upper level winds become favorable, the system may have a chance to develop".

2 hours and 5 pages later on the boards, people are quoting him that a Cat 5. is about to slam NOLA....