TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) June 2006 season forecast=14/8/3

[cycloneye]

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/

I know that those members who like to see many storms and hurricanes will be dissapointed with this outlook from the UK folks.They haved downgraded their forecast from the May one which had 15/8/4.IMO it looks reasonable what they are saying in the June outlook according to what the synoptic pattern is looking like in 2006.

[HURAKAN]

Sometimes in life isn't quantity what matters, but quality. Fourteen storms is still a very active season; 1954, 1999, 1996 and many more memorable active seasons had less than 14 storms. Therefore, you don't need 28 named storms to make 2006, the most destructive season in history, although I feel that it will be years before Katrina's record is challenged.

[BayouVenteux]

Sometimes in life isn't quantity what matters, but quality. Fourteen storms is still a very active season; 1954, 1999, 1996 and many more memorable active seasons had less than 14 storms. Therefore, you don't need 28 named storms to make 2006, the most destructive season in history, although I feel that it will be years before Katrina's record is challenged.

That said, quality can be a relative term when you're referring to the destructive power of hurricanes.

[KWT]

Still active mind you and the ACE is still quite abit above average though it isn't that high when comparing it to the last three years!

[CHRISTY]

i think we may very well see a year like 2004.just maybe.

[Stratusxpeye]

Only takes one. One cat 5 through Hou area or mia or maybe even going through miami cross the penisula regenerate and through houston texas area. 2 major cities one cat 5. 06 would become the most memorable in recent history. You don't need a large amount of storms. Could be even worse if one went through miami than curved like a katrina type track through NOLA Again. Well said above posters.

[CHRISTY]

Only takes one. One cat 5 through Hou area or mia or maybe even going through miami cross the penisula regenerate and through houston texas area. 2 major cities one cat 5. 06 would become the most memorable in recent history. You don't need a large amount of storms. Could be even worse if one went through miami than curved like a katrina type track through NOLA Again. Well said above posters.

very very true it only takes one.

[boca]

When I go and check out their verification for 2006 my computer totally locks up, but only on that site, so if someone can tell me why they lowered their numbers it would be appreciated.

[NCHurricane]

When I go and check out their verification for 2006 my computer totally locks up, but only on that site, so if someone can tell me why they lowered their numbers it would be appreciated.

It's a .pdf file, boca (if that helps in determining why it locks up).

Basically, they are leaning towards lower numbers because of the warmer forecasted SST's than previouly thought in the equatorial east Pacific.

[boca]

Can the pdf file be corrected on my computer because its just that site?

[LarryWx]

Basically, they are leaning towards lower numbers because of the warmer forecasted SST's than previouly thought in the equatorial east Pacific.

This makes sense, especially considering how fast SST anomalies have risen. In the NINO 3.4 region, they rose from -1.1 C (La Nina) as of 1/25/06 all the way to +0.4 C (only 0.1 C from the threshold for El Nino)as of 5/31/06. I've found only three periods since 1990 for which it rose more rapidly than 1.5 C in 18 weeks: early 2000, mid 1997, and late 1991. In addition, subsurface anom.'s at the 100 meter depth have risen from the already warm +0.5 to +1.0 C range as of 5/8 all the way to the +1.0 to +2.0 C range as of 5/23! The combination of the rapid SST rise with already quite warm and warming subsurface anomalies tells me that the chances of us moving into an El Nino this summer or early fall are increasing substantially.

[JonathanBelles]

those numbers are low

[P.K.]

In the NINO 3.4 region, they rose from -1.1 C (La Nina) as of 1/25/06 all the way to +0.4 C (only 0.1 C from the threshold for El Nino)as of 5/31/06.

They never got that low. The lowest they reached were around -0.8C. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml

[HurricaneHunter914]

The U.K's forecast is only just a forecast it isn't accurate. Plus there are other forecasts we should put into consideration like the NHC's forecasts, they kinda tend to be more accurate since they are located closer to where the hurricane activity is.

[P.K.]

They are all of course forecasts, the same is true of the NOAA's forecast. I can't see how where they are located matters though?

[cycloneye]

They have a very good record with their past years forecasts.Only go to the link I posted at first post and look at the right for verification of the 2005 season.I can understand that some dont like the low numbers thay they forecast and that is a reason why they dont like this forecast.On the contrary if they would haved gone with for example=20/11/7 then they would not stop congrating the UK folks.

[LarryWx]

In the NINO 3.4 region, they rose from -1.1 C (La Nina) as of 1/25/06 all the way to +0.4 C (only 0.1 C from the threshold for El Nino)as of 5/31/06.

They never got that low. The lowest they reached were around -0.8C. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml

According to the following NOAA link, they did as of 1/25/06:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst.for

I suppose the explanation is that Australia and NOAA measure the average anom.'s differently. Regardless, my statement still stands for the NOAA data, and the strong trend is clearly evident in that Australian data regardless with a still very significant 1.3 C increase over that 18 week period. Moreover, that Aust. data has NINO 3.4 even warmer currently, +0.5 C, or right at the threshold of a weak El Nino, vs. NOAA's +0.4 C.

[LarryWx]

The following link's NCEP report suggests that subsurface temp./oceanic heat content anom.'s often leads SST anom.'s:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... 84,8,Slide 8

On slide #8 of this NCEP report, compare the second and third charts and you will be able to see the strong tendency for oceanic heat content anom.'s to lead SST anom.'s.

The following shows the subsurface tropical Pacific warmth, which based on the NCEP report, will in my opinion likely lead to an El Nino soon:

[CHRISTY]

The following link's NCEP report suggests that subsurface temp./oceanic heat content anom.'s often leads SST anom.'s:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... 84,8,Slide 8

On slide #8 of this NCEP report, compare the second and third charts and you will be able to see the strong tendency for oceanic heat content anom.'s to lead SST anom.'s.

The following shows the subsurface tropical Pacific warmth, which based on the NCEP report, will in my opinion likely lead to an El Nino soon:

bill gray has said several times EL NINO is not likely this season.neutral conditions is what iam thinkin as of right now.interesting thought ...

[MiamiensisWx]

Though I don't expect an El Nino to form this year, La Nina has just about no chance of coming back in even a mild form.

Latest SST anomalies

Pacific warmer waters have continued to slowly spread and expand in general.