00z NAM

Stratusxpeye · #61 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 2:09 pm

fact789 wrote:rain. everyone do the rain dance for me

Yes for all of us here in central florida. Other parts of florida as well.

CHRISTY · #62 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 2:21 pm

Interesting discussion....

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
202 PM EDT MON JUN 05 2006

VALID 12Z THU JUN 08 2006 - 12Z MON JUN 12 2006

GULF OF MEXICO/WRN CARIBBEAN/CNTRL AMERICA/ERN PAC...
THERE IS A CLEAR SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE CURRENT
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF COSTA RICA. THE NAM
PARALLEL/00Z CAN/AND EVENTUALLY THE NAM DRAG THE SYS ACRS THE
ISTHMUS INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO IN VARIOUS WAYS. THE 12Z CAN IS TRENDING SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST FROM ITS EARLIER SOLN...BUT ITS SOLN IN THE NERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND SRN CANADA IS NOT PREFERRED...SO ITS SOLN W/THIS SYS IS
LIKELY SUSPECT AS WELL. THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET KEEP THE SYS ON THE
PACIFIC SIDE...WHICH WAS PREFERRED. THE SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN
THE H5 PATTERN ACRS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MAKE THIS A
SLOW MOVG SYS... AND LANDFALL OF THE SYS IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
TO BE ALONG THE CNTRL SECTION OF THE SRN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT
A WEEK. THE CURRENT SOLN IS CLOSEST TO THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF...BUT
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY. STAY TUNED.

rockyman · #63 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 4:15 pm

Even though it seems crazy, the low level flow south of Mexico is actually pretty strong from W to E...so it I don't see how the system would go west at this point.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

rockyman · #64 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 4:24 pm

Low level steering flow over IR4 (the Canadian could be onto something):

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h119/rockyman_photos/GOES20452006156cATQPB.jpg

#65 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 4:28 pm

Just about all models are showing something in the Yucatan area in several days, even the Canadian Model.

#66 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 4:29 pm

rockyman wrote:Low level steering flow over IR4 (the Canadian could be onto something):

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h119/rockyman_photos/GOES20452006156cATQPB.jpg

Well there are a variety of ways the models handle this system. One is stationary, moving northwestward slowly, meandering in the EPAC, across Central America into the Caribbean and up into the GOM and one doesn't handle it at all. This is a wait and see case.

Are the upper level winds favorable for this system to develope in the EPAC?

CHRISTY · #67 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 4:30 pm

rockyman wrote:Low level steering flow over IR4 (the Canadian could be onto something):

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h119/rockyman_photos/GOES20452006156cATQPB.jpg

so what u saying its possible?

rockyman · #68 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 4:36 pm

The upper high that was over Mexico/Guatemala area has slowly moved east and now appears to be centered over Honduras...the surface low in the Gulf of Honduras is getting closer to slipping under this upper high...where it could develop further...I more optimistic about the future of this system, since the surface low has persisted for several days and has intermittently set off convection...I'm especially interested in seeing if the low can tap any of the moisture in the EPac (which might be moving toward the Carib anyway).

CHRISTY · #69 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 4:39 pm

rockyman wrote:The upper high that was over Mexico/Guatemala area has slowly moved east and now appears to be centered over Honduras...the surface low in the Gulf of Honduras is getting closer to slipping under this upper high...where it could develop further...I more optimistic about the future of this system, since the surface low has persisted for several days and has intermittently set off convection...I'm especially interested in seeing if the low can tap any of the moisture in the EPac (which might be moving toward the Carib anyway).

so what direction is all that convection in the epac moving?

#70 Postby **TampaFl** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 4:48 pm

FWIW, JB in his morning discussion basiclly said to keep an eye on the Western Caribbean as it could start to get interesting and the Caribbean disturbance could move into Gulf next week. With a few models hinting at possible developement I guess only time will tell. We sure could us the rain here in West Central Florida though. Bone dry here in Central Hillsbourough Co. :cry:

Robert

#71 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 4:50 pm

TampaFl wrote:FWIW, JB in his morning discussion basiclly said to keep an eye on the Western Caribbean as it could start to get interesting and the Caribbean disturbance could move into Gulf next week. With a few models hinting at possible developement I guess only time will tell. We sure could us the rain here in West Central Florida though. Bone dry here in Central Hillsbourough Co.

Robert

What few models? Nam and CMC?

'CaneFreak · #72 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 4:59 pm

Yeah, I agree with Air Force Met...until we reach a consistency amongst ALL the models, I would not count on anything to happen whatsoever....the NAM is terrible with tropical weather.... :roll:

CHRISTY · #73 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:00 pm

agree....

#74 Postby **TampaFl** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:02 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
TampaFl wrote:FWIW, JB in his morning discussion basiclly said to keep an eye on the Western Caribbean as it could start to get interesting and the Caribbean disturbance could move into Gulf next week. With a few models hinting at possible developement I guess only time will tell. We sure could us the rain here in West Central Florida though. Bone dry here in Central Hillsbourough Co.

Robert

What few models? Nam and CMC?

I know it is only two :eek:

(as I said "a few models" and only time will tell!! Plus two models are better than none at all ):lol: :lol:

Robert

Extremeweatherguy · #75 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:13 pm

Scorpion wrote:Actually, the NAM that I was using is the NAM-WRF suite, which will become official on June 13. Additionally, it continues development for 12Z.

well if it is going to be official on June 13th, then I guess this one may actually be better. Wow, I can not believe it still shows such a strong system. this is one to watch for sure.

CHRISTY · #76 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:13 pm

Plenty of convection....

Extremeweatherguy · #77 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:16 pm

Here is the 18Z run of the NAM-WRF suite. The regular NAM also has a low (not as strong), but keeps it further SW.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_084m.gif

CHRISTY · #78 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:23 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Here is the 18Z run of the NAM-WRF suite. The regular NAM also has a low (not as strong), but keeps it further SW.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_084m.gif

right at southeast florida?lets see what happens with future runs...

#79 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:55 pm

CHRISTY wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Here is the 18Z run of the NAM-WRF suite. The regular NAM also has a low (not as strong), but keeps it further SW.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_084m.gif

right at southeast florida?lets see what happens with future runs...

I noticed that before.

#80 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 6:51 pm

wow, very interesting, rockyman, love your maps, keep it up for the season!

00z NAM

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