Nice Caribbean-Bahamas flare-up=6/5/06 Thread #2

boca · #21 Postby **boca** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:28 am

If anything going to form it will be in the EPAC and move either WNW or NW along the Mexican coast in the upcoming days.

#22 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:33 am

Aquawind wrote:What kind of a rude response it that Dixie? He gave an opinion with reason. No need to get rude about it..

Didn't know I was "being rude." Sorry Boca. I Should have posted a smiley with the post, aquawind.

Aquawind · #23 Postby **Aquawind** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 11:07 am

Saying "Whatever" to anyones post is rude and you know it.. Cold IR tops over water are a daily occurance.. It makes it alot easier for people to determine what blob etc your talking about when you put in some info such as the TWD discussion. That would have resolved the whole issue that clearly irritated you. Posting just a link opens the door for this kind miscommunication.. especially when you felt so strongly about it.. but didn't say why..

HurricaneHunter914 · #24 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 11:36 am

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tr ... 20x486.jpg

If the Upper Level Winds were favorable the is flare up would have been Alberto by now. I've been gone for a week and as soon as I come back the Sea Surface Temps have warmed significantly.

CHRISTY · #25 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 11:58 am

all i can say is WOW! :eek:

#26 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 12:00 pm

I don't know about ya'll but, the Major flare up is in the EPAC.

CHRISTY · #27 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 12:09 pm

ok so this flare up in the epac might move into the caribbean?

HurricaneHunter914 · #28 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 12:40 pm

That's what the models are hinting at I think.

#29 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 12:51 pm

CHRISTY wrote:ok so this flare up in the epac might move into the caribbean?

Actually, no. The activity in the East Pacific will remain there. We could be seeing the beginning of the next east Pac depression, though.

CHRISTY · #30 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 1:04 pm

so the NAM CMC and the NOGAPS have joined the GFS in this fantasy stuff.but actually they probably are showing development for the pacific not for the atlantic.

boca · #31 Postby **boca** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 3:38 pm

Its looking that way. The trough over in the Bahamas is supposed to drift back west and increase our rain chances by week end.

boca · #32 Postby **boca** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 3:45 pm

SO IN TODAYS FORECAST WE ARE TAKING IT ONE STEP AT A TIME. WE HAVE
BASED OUR TEXT AND GRIDS ON CONTINUITY WITH OUR PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY...AND NO ONE MODEL OR OTHER BUT
RATHER WHAT THEY ALL HAVE IN COMMON. THEREFORE YOU SHOULD EXPECT
CHANGES IN THE DETAILS. IF YOU HAVE BIG PLANS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK YOU WILL WANT TO CHECK BACK FREQUENTLY. FOR NOW WE HAVE
GRADUALLY INCREASED OUR RAIN CHANCES.
&&

Key West has no idea what this area will do. Flip a coin man.

#33 Postby **TampaFl** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:05 pm

boca wrote:SO IN TODAYS FORECAST WE ARE TAKING IT ONE STEP AT A TIME. WE HAVE
BASED OUR TEXT AND GRIDS ON CONTINUITY WITH OUR PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY...AND NO ONE MODEL OR OTHER BUT
RATHER WHAT THEY ALL HAVE IN COMMON. THEREFORE YOU SHOULD EXPECT
CHANGES IN THE DETAILS. IF YOU HAVE BIG PLANS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK YOU WILL WANT TO CHECK BACK FREQUENTLY. FOR NOW WE HAVE
GRADUALLY INCREASED OUR RAIN CHANCES.
&&

Key West has no idea what this area will do. Flip a coin man.

Bring on some much needed rainfall for Central & South Florida!!!

boca · #34 Postby **boca** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:40 pm

I agree Tampa. Look at all the convection all over Central America quite amazing.

CHRISTY · #35 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:48 pm

Here's a loop of the convection near central america....
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_CENTAM/anim8ir.html

wxboy222 · #36 Postby **wxboy222** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:04 pm

I'd give it a 20% chance of development. If it does, likely Thursday afternoon. I think the models are being a bit overzealous

Nice Caribbean-Bahamas flare-up=6/5/06 Thread #2

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