00z NAM

Scorpion · #21 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:05 am

The 06Z shows a much stronger low.

Extremeweatherguy · #22 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:07 am

wow...a 992mb low would mean this thing is a tropical storm for sure. 992mb is even in the range of a weak Cat. 1 storm!

#23 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:10 am

Is there any other computer model supporting NAM's forecast?

Will the environment in a few days be favorable to allow a strong tropical storm to develop?

boca · #24 Postby **boca** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:13 am

I think the nam is by itself on this one.

Extremeweatherguy · #25 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:16 am

Scorpion, are you sure that is today's 6Z run? I just checked two other sources (NCEP and accuweather) for the NAM 6Z run and neither of them show that strong of a low.

#26 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:22 am

yes it is click on the image to get a close up

rockyman · #27 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:25 am

HURAKAN wrote:Is there any other computer model supporting NAM's forecast?

Will the environment in a few days be favorable to allow a strong tropical storm to develop?

I've been looking at the upper level wind forecasts for the medium range, and it appears that conditions should be somewhat more favorable, but still not ideal...probably good enough for an Arlene-type sheared system...that huge trough should be off the East Coast by Day 4 and the subtropical jet should not be ripping through the Gulf like it is today.

Extremeweatherguy · #28 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:25 am

fact789 wrote:yes it is click on the image to get a close up

But this is what I find weird. When I went to the NCEP models page...this is the image I am getting for 84 hours out on the 6Z run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

BTW, here is the link to the NCEP model page:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

Scorpion · #29 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:33 am

I dont know? I got it from this link. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... er/nam/06/

Extremeweatherguy · #30 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:36 am

Hmm, that is weird. I wonder which one is right? They both look to be from the same source too. The difference, and an important one at that, is that yours shows a strong TS/Hurricane and mine shows nothing.

cheezyWXguy · #31 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:47 am

lets wait for the 12z

#32 Postby **Steve** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:50 am

Based on the recent Pacific Pattern, it seems likely that something will form a little further east than it had in the next few days. Whether that energy coalesces (sp?) on land or in the EPAC remains to be seen. I'm not putting much stock it in, as I'm assuming no one else is either, but it's a curiosity anyway. Thanks for posting.

Steve

HurricaneHunter914 · #33 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:51 am

Wow from looking at the NAM loop it seems like we might have our first named storm.

boca · #34 Postby **boca** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:52 am

link please

cheezyWXguy · #35 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:53 am

its that time of year...

HurricaneHunter914 · #36 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:55 am

boca wrote:link please

Boca I'm talking about the picature shown at the beginning of this thread. I said loop on accident.

#37 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:56 am

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:Wow from looking at the NAM loop it seems like we might have our first named storm.

Not just our first named system, but if NAM materializes which I still have my doubts since no other computer model is supporting this forecast, we could have our first hurricane.

#38 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:57 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
fact789 wrote:yes it is click on the image to get a close up

But this is what I find weird. When I went to the NCEP models page...this is the image I am getting for 84 hours out on the 6Z run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

BTW, here is the link to the NCEP model page:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

I'm having the same problem.

Upper level winds in that area still show 20-30 knots of shear too.

boca · #39 Postby **boca** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:57 am

No problem thanks

Extremeweatherguy · #40 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:57 am

whoa! talk about weird! I just did more research and found that on this page ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/ ) The models show Scorpions Hurricane, but on this page ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ ) they show my nothing storm. This is making me VERY confused! There seems to be no apparent difference in these two pages until you look at the models.

EDIT: nevermind. I just figured it out. Here is what the writing at the top of the second link says:

Please click on this link for our experimental changes to add new WRF graphics for 24-hr, 36-hr and 48-hr precipitation and new SREF graphics at three hour time steps. In addition four new SREF probability graphics are added

This explains it.

00z NAM

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