TD Two-E at EPAC=Last Advisorie,8 PM PDT,6/4/06

[gatorcane]

I was not talking about the surface circulation. It should dissipate either over the mountains or become a remnant low. The shear is too high over the LLCC. The MLC is moving NE....MGC

I can see some remnants entering the BOC....good point

[HURAKAN]

Bud seems unlikely, and if the NHC is right, it remnents will loop back to the EPAC.

BOTH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO MAKE A LOOP
OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS
APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO TAKE THE DEPRESSION INLAND BEFORE THIS LOOP
COULD OCCUR.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006
1100 PM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006

...DEPRESSION STALLS OFFSHORE AS DANGEROUS RAINS CONTINUE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES... 85 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION COULD RESUME OVERNIGHT...
WHICH WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 25 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...17.0 N...102.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[clfenwi]

According to this article (in Spanish) Acapulco has already reported 11 inches of rain.

[HURAKAN]

According to this article (in Spanish) Acapulco has already reported 11 inches of rain.

That's what the NHC said in their 5 PM EDT advisory. By the way, once again, bad information in the news.

From the report:
Spanish:"Ésta es la segunda tormenta tropical que se forma en el Pacífico desde que inició la temporada ciclónica el pasado 15 de mayo."

English:"This is the second tropical storm that forms in the Pacific since the start of the hurricane season the past May 15."

[clfenwi]

According to this article (in Spanish) Acapulco has already reported 11 inches of rain.

That's what the NHC said in their 5 PM EDT advisory. By the way, once again, bad information in the news.

Indeed, they did. I hadn't read that advisory just the most recent one and all of the discussions, so apologies for posting redundant information. It had struck me as odd that they just happened to report an amount in centimeters that equaled 11 inches exactly, but I didn't quite connect all of the dots. Thank you for pointing that out.

From the report:
Spanish:"Ésta es la segunda tormenta tropical que se forma en el Pacífico desde que inició la temporada ciclónica el pasado 15 de mayo."

English:"This is the second tropical storm that forms in the Pacific since the start of the hurricane season the past May 15."

Yeah, they are jumping the gun on that by assuming that the anticipation of the Depression becoming a TS will become true.

[HURAKAN]

TRYING TO MAKE A COMEBACK.

[clfenwi]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006

...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION REMAINS STATIONARY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES... 90 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY. A SLOW AND ERRATIC EASTWARD MOTION
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...AND LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ONLY A
SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS NECESSARY FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 25 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...17.0 N...102.0 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$

[clfenwi]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006

A SEQUENCE OF MICROWAVE PASSES...THE MOST RECENT AT 0319Z...INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF
ZIHUATANEJO. THE ADVISORY POSITION...WHICH BLENDS THE MICROWAVE
ESTIMATES WITH CONTINUITY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATING THE
CENTER...IS PROBABLY 20 N MI OR SO TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE...MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES. THIS SHEARING FLOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SO LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM REMAINS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IS
LIKELY TO TRIGGER LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES
WITHIN AND INLAND OF THE WARNING AREA.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE MODELS THAT THE MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEASTWARD...LEAVING A WEAK REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO
LINGER OFFSHORE. THE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THIS IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND ONLY VERY SLOWLY BRINGS THE CENTER OF A
DECAYING SYSTEM TO THE COAST. THE GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDL
ALL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 17.0N 102.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 17.1N 101.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 17.2N 101.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED


$$

[cycloneye]

WTPZ32 KNHC 041149
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006
500 AM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006

...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AND
WELL INLAND...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. THE WARNING MAY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES... 100 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING ERRATICALLY EASTWARD... AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...AND LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ONLY A
SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS NECESSARY FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 25 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...16.8 N...101.9 W. MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 800 AM PDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[CHRISTY]

02E Spaghetti plot all models...06z



02E NHC Forcast Track....09z

[SouthFloridawx]

Wow I never expected to see this thing still around when I woke up. I though it would be inland. I guess it was moving very slowly.

[HURAKAN]

Wow I never expected to see this thing still around when I woke up. I though it would be inland. I guess it was moving very slowly.

It's partially inland. Steve Lyons said that the middle circulation detached from the low-level circulation. The middle circulation is already over Mexico moving toward the GOM, and the low-level circulation is still in the coast.

[Coredesat]

I think the next advisory (or the one after that) will be the last. It's really fallen apart.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah next advisorie will likely be the last.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ32 KNHC 042029
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006

...DEPRESSION PASSING JUST SOUTH OF ACAPULCO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING... AND MUD SLIDES STILL A THREAT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. THE WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.8 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES... 45 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 10 MPH... AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
COULD MOVE INLAND BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES... CAN BE EXPECTED IN
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...16.5 N...99.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

FORECASTER STEWART





Still is alive.




WTPZ42 KNHC 042031
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS ACCELERATED EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OUT FROM
UNDER THE EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION... THE LATTER OF WHICH HAS SINCE
WEAKENED AND MOVED NORTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO. AT 18Z...AS THE
CENTER WAS PASSING SOUTH OF ACAPULCO... A SUSTAINED WIND OF 22 KT
WITH A GUST TO 32 KT WAS REPORTED. THIS WIND DATA... ALONG WITH
CONSENSUS T1.5 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES... IS BARELY ENOUGH TO
KEEP THIS SYSTEM LIMPING ALONG AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 100/09 KT. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS
NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS... AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGER-SCALE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO. THE TWO WESTERLY STREAM FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE PUSHING THE CYCLONE EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL STILL INSIST
THAT TD-2E WILL NOT MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THEIR
LESS THAN STERLING PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS... THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE
VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN 12 HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATES IT
AFTER THAT...EVEN IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER.

UNFAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR... DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
PUNCHING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE... AND THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LAND SHOULD INHIBIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...
AND WILL LIKELY HELP TO BRING ABOUT ITS DEMISE BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW... EVEN IF THE CYCLONE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER. THE GFDL
MODEL DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE AFTER 24 HOURS OVER WATER... AND
DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER IF THE CENTER MOVES INLAND
LATER TONIGHT.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 16.5N 99.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 05/0600Z 16.3N 99.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[HURAKAN]

TD 2-E survives the 5 PM EDT advisory and it's going for the 8 PM EDT advisory. Maybe it will be the last!!!

[JonathanBelles]

look slike it may take a similar trip to adrian last year to the east, could it regain strength?

[JonathanBelles]

i just noticed also its not outside of the warning area

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Very remote. But if the mid level gets into the gulf in the enviroment turns faverable who knows.