Nice S. Caribbean flare-up 6/1/06 -- 6/4/06......

[CHRISTY]

Somewhere between 1 and 1.5%

I think we have a disagreement here (you are probably right though, just tooka look at the US Water Vapor loop which shows a huge trough that continues to dig down into the SE that should keep the shear strong through the NW Caribbean. Looks more like a winter-time setup)

I think I'll lower my percentage to 25%

Remember, I absolutely DO NOT want to see a single significant disturbance before at least mid August. So I have a strong no-develop bias.

If you ever see me talking about development, watch out!

wxman57 u think if this system continues to flare up tommorow things could get interesting?Because ive had with this fantasy stuff with the GFS.

[gatorcane]

wxmann57 u think if this system continues to flare up tommorow things could get interesting?Because ive had with this fantasy stuff with the GFS

Christy I can't believe the GFS has even gotten this close so far - a couple of days ago this thing was well south and mostly over Panama and South America. I'm surprised it has been pulled this far north already - so I'll give the GFS credit for that

[CHRISTY]

wxmann57 u think if this system continues to flare up tommorow things could get interesting?Because ive had with this fantasy stuff with the GFS

Christy I can't believe the GFS has even gotten this close so far - a couple of days ago this thing was well south and mostly over Panama and South America. I'm surprised it has been pulled this far north already - so I'll give the GFS credit for that

yea this is definately the feature the GFS has been talkin about....

[gatorcane]

anybody have the wind directions/speeds off the NE coast of Nicaragua - I am curious if they are seeing N winds there?

Looks like Managua has SSW winds at 5mph right now. I'm curious about along coast, if they are seeing N winds due to this weak low.

SW to NE shear still capping the system right now but we better hope it doesn't slacken - it is fighting successfully against it right now. Here is the latest IR:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

[Jim Cantore]

I dont think this will develop as of now, but all we can do is watch it.

[CHRISTY]

(Hey guys Storm Floater 1 is now over this system.)

[gatorcane]

Here is a blurb from the NWS Miami Discussion at 958 pm EST which mentions how the the fantasy of the GFS is finally coming to an end. Notice how this pattern described here would mean fish so if this pattern can be around come Aug-Sept the EC should be in good shape

.PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARD THE EAST AND THEN STALL. THIS TROUGH
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE U.S. WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA STILL
LOOKS LIKE TOMORROW WITH HIGH SCATTERED CATEGORY INTERIOR AND EAST
ZONES. STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH STORMS TOWARD THE EAST COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAV/MET GUIDANCE FINALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT.
WITH TROUGHINESS IN PLACE INTO THE COMING WEEK...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY AS EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL. GFS FINALLY BACKING
OFF LOW DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH.

[CHRISTY]

GFS!!!!!You are driving me crazy.

[gatorcane]

Christy it is looking pretty good tonight though - lots of reds and oranges in the infrared. I would expect some nocturnal firing of convection later tonight and this convection should rescind by tomorrow midday and into the afternoon. We typically see this type of convection pattern cycle in the tropics.

[whereverwx]

Well, I go away for a little while, and when I come back, the NHC has repositioned Floater #1! I was shocked; I thought something was forming (based on the AVN presentation). But when I looked at the water vapor loop—this thing has no chance.

[Weatherfreak000]

I have just looked at the Water Vapor loop, I see nothing against the system whatsoever. So i'm curious, what is so against the system? Please point this out to me..

[gatorcane]

Hi calamity, I don't think you posted enought images

I have just looked at the Water Vapor loop, I see nothing against the system whatsoever. So i'm curious, what is so against the system? Please point this out to me..

The main problem is the strong SW Jetstream which is causing high shear in the region (upper level winds are blowing 30K out of the SW keeping any convection from wrapping around on the west side of the weak surface low). The 50-60K shear is not that far off from the NW.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

[whereverwx]

Hi calamity, I don't think you posted enought images

Actually, I had 6 more images, but I decided not to post them.

I have just looked at the Water Vapor loop, I see nothing against the system whatsoever. So i'm curious, what is so against the system? Please point this out to me..

The main problem is the strong SW Jetstream which is causing high shear in the region (upper level winds are blowing 30K out of the SW keeping any convection from wrapping around on the west side of the weak surface low). The 50-60K shear is not that far off from the NW.

Yes, exactly. Thanks for responding. That's why I think it won't develop.

[gatorcane]

Actually, I had 6 more images, but I decided not to post them

You have more ?!!:lol:

[boca]

If the fantasy storm develops it will cross Jamiaca eastern Cuba and out into the Atlantic riding the strong jet.

[Rainband]

ok but if this surface feature continues to have thunderstorms fire near the center i think it has to be watched for some development.

THIS SYSTEM IS WELL
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS SO
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS VERY UNLIKELY. That says it all

Right now this thing is not embedded in any flow, it's been down there for 3 days. now it may get picked up by the approaching trough or might not, some models have it moving northwest or west into the Epac. If you don't think there's a chance or any development, why keep coming back to this thread.
I mean no ill will, just seemed like your jumping on Christy.

Excuse me. I am a MODERATOR it's my job to read the threads.

[GalvestonDuck]

ok but if this surface feature continues to have thunderstorms fire near the center i think it has to be watched for some development.

THIS SYSTEM IS WELL
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS SO
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS VERY UNLIKELY. That says it all

Right now this thing is not embedded in any flow, it's been down there for 3 days. now it may get picked up by the approaching trough or might not, some models have it moving northwest or west into the Epac. If you don't think there's a chance or any development, why keep coming back to this thread.
I mean no ill will, just seemed like your jumping on Christy.

Excuse me. I am a MODERATOR it's my job to read the threads.

Ditto that!

[SouthFloridawx]

BTW.... Where did those clouds go?

[gatorcane]

And it has gone poof!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Actually the area of low pressure is SW of all the convection most have been looking at. If you look closely at the Satellite loop you can see a clear spin in the SW Carrib. The forecast is for this low to move toward the Yucatan over the next day or two. Currently, little convection is associated with the low, but we will need to watch for further development down the line.