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Well, here goes my first 2006 forecast on a tropical cyclone...
My TD 2 (Eastern Pacific) Forecast #1
We have our second tropical depression of the 2006 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season, and it is very close - if not already at - tropical storm status. Earlier today, satellite imagery indicated an increase in organization of the tropical disturbance that was originally moving westward. After being under strong southwest vertical wind shear, the center appears to have relocated closer to the Mexican coastline, moving more parallel to the trough that originally resulted in the strong and unfavorable southwesterly shear over the system. Convective activity rapidly increased and banding features organized, and the system was upgraded to TD 2 earlier today by the National Hurricane Center, with winds of 25KT (30MPH) near the center. Recently, in the latest advisory, the depression's intensity has been upped to 30KT (35MPH), just below tropical storm strength, due to continuing organization.
Synoptics
Currently, the system's center is likely near 104W and 18N, where convection has burst over it and shows signs of organizing and turning at the lower levels. This should provide a more favorable environment and synoptic for strengthening. Currently, shear is stronger to the north and northwest of the depression, but this is currently enhancing outflow. That, along with the increased organization convective-wise and banding-wise, should allow for slow strengthening to a low-end tropical storm before landfall and, in fact, QUICKSCAT and satellite imagery indicates that we likely already have 35KT Tropical Storm Bud on our hands. In the first few hours, including now, I expect TD 2 to strengthen to 35KT and maintain that intensity as it slowly moves towards the Mexican coast southeast of Acapulco through 12 hours. Just before landfall, from 24 hours and beyond, land interaction should begin to take it's toll on the system, and shear data indicates that the currently benign shear environment may turn more hostile at or just after 24 hours, just before I expect the system to make landfall. With that said, I expect the system to maintain 35KT right up to landfall at 24 hours out from now, then weaken to a depression at or just before landfall around 30 or 32 hours as more unfavorable factors take it's toll, along with an approaching trough. I expect rapid weakening just after landfall at around 36 hours due to increasing shear and land interaction, and the system should lose it's convective activity by then quickly; however, life-threatening flash floods and heavy rains in mountainous southwest Mexico and in the Acapulco area and inland are likely. As the system degenerates into a remnant low just inland of the coast at around 48 hours, it is possible that a blocking ridge may develop, forcing the system's remnants southward, possibly resulting in a return of convective activity; however, I do not expect regeneration of the system over water close to the coast.
INTENSITY FORECAST...
0 hours, current position (104W, 18N): 30KT (TD)
12 hours, 104.2W/18.2N: 35KT (TS)
24 hours, 104.0W/18.4N: 35KT (TS)
LANDFALL AROUND 30 - 32 HOURS, 103.9W/18.6N (just southwest of Acapulco city): 30KT (TD)
36 hours, 103.8W/18.8N: 25KT, inland (TD)
48 hours, 103.6W/18.8N: dissipating/remnant low, inland
INTENSITY GRAPHIC...
Threats
Mexican residents, both at the immediate coast in the Acapulco area and inland, mountainous areas just inland of the coast should be VERY concerned about flash floods. At the coast in the Acapulco area, winds (including gusty conditions), squalls, and heavy rainfall. Just inland and just after the immediate coast, flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall will likely be a high concern, even after the system weakens quickly inland. Damage to landscaping, roofs, fences, and homes (especially to poorly built structures) at the immediate coastline will likely be high concerns. Everyone in these areas of Mexico should take this storm VERY seriously.
That is my first 2006 forecast. Any opinions? Does anyone agree?
