TD Two-E at EPAC=Last Advisorie,8 PM PDT,6/4/06

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

NRL 18:00z update=30kts

An upgrade on the winds according to the 18:00z update of NRL but short of Tropical Storm status.

[cycloneye]

Acapulco Radar



I dont know if this Acapulco radar is updated with many hours intervals or less but I found it.By looking at the image it looks like the center is very close to the coast.I am praying that nothing tragic occurs in terms of massive floodings and mudslides.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ32 KNHC 032031
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006
200 PM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEARING STORM STRENGTH HEADING FOR THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...TORRENTIAL RAINS IN ACAPULCO...

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM
ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...135 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE CROSSING
THE COAST OF MEXICO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ACCORDING TO THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO ACAPULCO ALREADY MEASURED NEAR 11
INCHES OF RAIN.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...16.7 N...102.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$



Almost a storm.




WTPZ42 KNHC 032032
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006
200 PM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IT NOW CONSISTS
OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND SOME CONVECTIVE
BANDS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. BASED ON T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS. THE UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND
A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH LAND.
THEREFORE...ONLY A 5-KNOT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED IN THE
FORECAST. THIS BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS
BEFORE LANDFALL AND PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.

THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND APPEARS TO BE ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION
CONTINUES TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA BY A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
RAIN IS ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND ACCORDING TO THE
MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE...ACAPULCO HAS ALREADY REPORTED NEARLY 11
INCHES OF RAIN.

GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON KEEPING A WEAKER CYCLONE MEANDERING NEAR OR
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST FOR A FEW DAYS. IF THE CENTER
REMAINS OVER WATER AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE
DEPRESSION COULD MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY LONGER INSTEAD OF
DISSIPATING OVER LAND.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 16.7N 102.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 17.6N 101.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 18.0N 101.0W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 05/0600Z 18.0N 100.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[MiamiensisWx]

Wow, this thing definately is carrying heavy amounts of rain with it. Not surprising, though, especially when you take a look at radar through the depression's life up to now. Nearly 11 inches in Acapulco?! Still amazing.

[MiamiensisWx]

The southwesterly flow is helping to spread the rainbands and moisture over Mexico, especially when you look at imagery.

Infra-red imagery

Visible imagery

Getting better organized and, with a larger size and better outflow, it is moving parallel to and fighting off the westerly shear. It looks like we may have Bud now.

[MiamiensisWx]

QUICKSCAT

We are getting closer to having Bud named, it appears, since QUISCAT is showing the possibility of some isolated 35KT winds.

[whereverwx]

It's looking very impressive. I'm sure it won't be long before it's named.

[MiamiensisWx]

Center appears to be reforming more to the northwest, becoming closer to the small burst of colder, reddish cloudtops on the northwest side of the storm. Looks like we are closer to having Bud with this reformation... look here. Upper-level support is diffluent but favorable, and shear has decreased a bit. Here comes our potential Bud, but his bloom is NOT pretty news for Mexico.

Actually, I think we may have Bud right now.

[SouthFloridawx]

The latest forecast for this storm is possibly become a tropical storm shortly before landfall. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 3day?large

[SouthFloridawx]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 032032
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006
200 PM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IT NOW CONSISTS
OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND SOME CONVECTIVE
BANDS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. BASED ON T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS. THE UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND
A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH LAND.
THEREFORE...ONLY A 5-KNOT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED IN THE
FORECAST. THIS BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS
BEFORE LANDFALL AND PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.

THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND APPEARS TO BE ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION
CONTINUES TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA BY A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
RAIN IS ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND ACCORDING TO THE
MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE...ACAPULCO HAS ALREADY REPORTED NEARLY 11
INCHES OF RAIN.

GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON KEEPING A WEAKER CYCLONE MEANDERING NEAR OR
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST FOR A FEW DAYS. IF THE CENTER
REMAINS OVER WATER AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE
DEPRESSION COULD MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY LONGER INSTEAD OF
DISSIPATING OVER LAND.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 16.7N 102.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 17.6N 101.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 18.0N 101.0W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 05/0600Z 18.0N 100.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED


$$

[MiamiensisWx]

The latest forecast for this storm is possibly become a tropical storm shortly before landfall. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/203431.shtml?3day?large

I know... although it is not a storm yet officially, I think it may already be based on the observations I mentioned above. NHC will mention it later, but I think the increase to 40MPH before landfall has and is occurring. I don't expect much more development than this 5KT to possibly 10KT increase.

[wx247]

The big story isn't going to be the winds... of course, we all know that! I think the problem here is speed and water. This area can't deal with all this rain. I wouldn't be surprised to see some 25" totals out of this, possibly more. That is not a positive thing anywhere.

[JonathanBelles]

how far in miles is this from where aletta had its worst effects?

[MiamiensisWx]

The big story isn't going to be the winds... of course, we all know that! I think the problem here is speed and water. This area can't deal with all this rain. I wouldn't be surprised to see some 25" totals out of this, possibly more. That is not a positive thing anywhere.

Very true, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the winds cause extensive screen, roofing, and fence damages in some areas. In addition, damage from the winds, gusts, and heavy rainfall will likely be combined. There are areas surrounding Acapulco that don't have the best quality construction (slums), to say the least.

[CHRISTY]

it needs to stay of shore if it wants to be BUD.

[CrazyC83]

The big story isn't going to be the winds... of course, we all know that! I think the problem here is speed and water. This area can't deal with all this rain. I wouldn't be surprised to see some 25" totals out of this, possibly more. That is not a positive thing anywhere.

It doesn't matter really if it becomes Bud or stayes 2-E. The results will be similar.

[MiamiensisWx]

Center is just offshore now... will likely make landfall in around the next 24 to 28 hours or so...

Infra-red imagery

[MiamiensisWx]

What intensity do the latest model runs take TD 2 up to?

[CHRISTY]

02E Spaghetti plot all models 12z




NHC models 02E 12z