TD Two-E at EPAC=Last Advisorie,8 PM PDT,6/4/06

[Ivanhater]

just reported on the weather channel

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Ivanhater]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN MONITORING FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND
ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY
INTERACTING WITH LAND...NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...A SMALL DECREASE IN THE WIND SHEAR COULD
BRING THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.

THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT IT APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST AMSU DATA AND
HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 020/06...AND THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST BY A
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY. ONE SHOULD
NOTE THAT SOME GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE MEANDERING ALONG AND
NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS SOLUTION IS
ALSO A POSSIBLE ONE.

BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...THE PRIMARY
THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 16.0N 102.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 16.7N 102.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 17.5N 101.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 17.5N 100.5W 20 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 17.5N 99.5W 20 KT

[JonathanBelles]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 031434
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE COAST...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...230 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO
BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND LAZARO CARDENAS. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...102.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

Ivan,I edited the title and put a sticky to the thread.

[Aquawind]

This looks to be more of an event for Mexico than Aletta was. Impressive convection continues.

[Ivanhater]

Ivan,I edited the title and put a sticky to the thread.

thanks Luis

[StormScanWx]

I wonder will this get to Tropical Storm strength....

[cycloneye]

Ivan I forgot to mention that if this depression is upgraded to a storm a new thread will be made and this one will close.

[CHRISTY]

i think its quite possible....but not a strong TS.so well see if it remains of shore.

[Ivanhater]

Ivan I forgot to mention that if this depression is upgraded to a storm a new thread will be made and this one will close.

ok

[SouthFloridawx]

GFDL still bringing this system to TS strength before landfall. 00Z run 060306

[CrazyC83]

It really means little whether it makes landfall as Two-E or Bud. The winds are not the issue. It will be a big rainmaker, which could lead to flooding and mudslides either way.

[hurricanefreak1988]

Typical start to the hurricane season. E-Pac always gets things going early, but they quiet down when we heat up. We'll catch up.

[SouthFloridawx]

Typical start to the hurricane season. E-Pac always gets things going early, but they quiet down when we heat up. We'll catch up.

The Epac better watch out for those 3 pointers.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is looking very good right now might become a tropical storm later today.

[Epsilon_Fan]

looks like a repeat of Aletta, but closer to shore.

[clfenwi]

03/1745 UTC 16.0N 102.5W T2.5/2.5 02E

[Ivanhater]

looking good

[whereverwx]

It's a huge tropical depression.