Nice S. Caribbean flare-up 6/1/06 -- 6/4/06......

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Regit
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#81 Postby Regit » Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:25 pm

Not that it means a whole lot, but WBTW in Myrtle Beach just mentioned that this system is worth watching and has a shot at becoming the first named storm. I found this interesting, since they often miss storms during the blob and invest stages, so something caught their eye.
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#82 Postby drezee » Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:51 pm

Two threads about the same thing...
Buoy 42058 now has pretty strong SSE winds

Supplemental Measurements
Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
2020 30.1 kts SSE ( 160 deg true)
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#83 Postby tailgater » Fri Jun 02, 2006 6:45 pm

Judging from that Quikscat, it looks like the best turning is in the E-PAC.
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#84 Postby tailgater » Sat Jun 03, 2006 9:34 am

Nice turning seen on Vis. Sat. loop at @ N12.5 W81.5
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#85 Postby rockyman » Sat Jun 03, 2006 9:58 am

Here's the location of the surface low and trough overlayed on IR4 (per 805am TWD):

Image[/img]
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#86 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Jun 03, 2006 10:10 am

Lets see if it continues to flare up this afternoon. :wink:
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#87 Postby Hyperstorm » Sat Jun 03, 2006 10:10 am

tailgater wrote:Nice turning seen on Vis. Sat. loop at @ N12.5 W81.5


I just noticed that. Thank goodness for visible satellite images! The area I was talking about in the other thread was the one with the blow-up just to the NE of it. This area of visible turning is located farther to the south. This changes things a little bit.

Thunderstorms are developing around the periphery of this system and this should continue through the day. The more thunderstorms it can get over/near it, the better chances of it becoming better defined. The upper-levels are not favorable in this area, but are certainly less hostile than to the north. Therefore, we cannot rule out the possibility of this system staying far enough south to avoid (for the time being) the strongest of upper-level winds.

This is getting interesting, but nothing is imminent until/if we see a well-defined low pressure center...
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#88 Postby boca » Sat Jun 03, 2006 10:22 am

Are you talking about that area right along the coast of Honduras?
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#89 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Jun 03, 2006 10:34 am

boca wrote:Are you talking about that area right along the coast of Honduras?


yep.
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#90 Postby Hyperstorm » Sat Jun 03, 2006 10:34 am

Image

This is just a simple image to depict where the area is located. There is nothing to be concerned about yet with northerly flow in the upper-levels, but that's the area to watch, if any...
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#91 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Jun 03, 2006 10:37 am

Hyperstorm wrote:Image

There is nothing to be concerned about yet with northerly flow in the upper-levels, but that's the area we should be looking at.


Thats exactly the area i was lookin at.....there seems to be some slight spin to it.I really cant post any sat images cause iam at work.
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#92 Postby boca » Sat Jun 03, 2006 10:37 am

You have a better eye than me I was looking at the area NNW of that .
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#93 Postby Hyperstorm » Sat Jun 03, 2006 10:40 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031520
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 03 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

If it does develop, it will be a very weak system due to the complicated upper-level pattern it will be in during the next few days.

BTW, tailgater first noticed it this morning. I really do appreciate visible satellite images.
Last edited by Hyperstorm on Sat Jun 03, 2006 10:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#94 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Jun 03, 2006 10:41 am

boca wrote:You have a better eye than me I was looking at the area NNW of that .


your not the only one
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CHRISTY

#95 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Jun 03, 2006 10:41 am

boca wrote:You have a better eye than me I was looking at the area NNW of that .


boca u have to the interactive goes 12 visible data selector and animate the area u wanna look at and then zoom into the area.
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#96 Postby boca » Sat Jun 03, 2006 10:43 am

Maybe that tropical wave around 62W as it moves westward will ignite our weak low pressure area.
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CHRISTY

#97 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Jun 03, 2006 10:43 am

No development for the time being stated by one of my favorite forcasters.AVILA.
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#98 Postby boca » Sat Jun 03, 2006 10:46 am

I'm going to work maybe something will change in 9 hours.
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#99 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Jun 03, 2006 10:49 am

boca wrote:I'm going to work maybe something will change in 9 hours.


cool talk to u later...
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#100 Postby skysummit » Sat Jun 03, 2006 10:55 am

CHRISTY wrote:No development for the time being stated by one of my favorite forcasters.AVILA.


Are you serious? Avila is one of your favorites?
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