92E Invest at EPAC,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[RattleMan]

Yes, but at 06Z on the 1st they were higher in some places around the area:

http://img226.imageshack.us/img226/8844 ... 0663jx.gif

EDIT: My picture and explanation may make no sense, as the image the previous poster linked to is dynamic; the current 6/3 0Z map is better (higher probability) than 6/2 18Z and 6/1 6Z.

[wx247]

This system still looks pretty decent it is just taking its sweet time getting its act together. NRL has the pressure at 1006 and 25 kts. Satellite presentation this evening looks better than it did earlier.

[wx247]

Here is the latest outlook from the NHC. Pretty much goes along with what we have been saying.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT FRI JUN 2 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED AROUND 375 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
SYSTEM DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031006
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT SAT JUN 3 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED AROUND 375 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN



Floater



Convection has increased in the past few hours.What we have to wait is for the first visible images to see where is the Low.

[cycloneye]

03/1145 UTC 15.3N 102.1W T1.5/1.5 92E -- East Pacific Ocean

[Hyperstorm]

Satellite images show a dangerous explosion of strong thunderstorms over what looks to be a broad, but fairly well-defined LLC. This means that a tropical depression is very likely developing. The system is very near the coast and moving northward so watches/warnings might be required very soon.

Even though it will most likely be upgraded to a depression later today, time might run out for it to become a named storm. In any case, the primary threat will be very torrential rainfall over southern Mexico and the interior mountains. Unfortunately, the potential for mudslides will be high with such strong formative convection.

[P.K.]

Looks like it has been upgraded so the title can be changed to TD2.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN MONITORING FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND
ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY
INTERACTING WITH LAND...NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...A SMALL DECREASE IN THE WIND SHEAR COULD
BRING THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.

THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT IT APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST AMSU DATA AND
HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 020/06...AND THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST BY A
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY. ONE SHOULD
NOTE THAT SOME GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE MEANDERING ALONG AND
NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS SOLUTION IS
ALSO A POSSIBLE ONE.

BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...THE PRIMARY
THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 16.0N 102.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 16.7N 102.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 17.5N 101.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 17.5N 100.5W 20 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 17.5N 99.5W 20 KT

[Ivanhater]

just made a new thread earlier