92E Invest at EPAC,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[CHRISTY]

Yea i agree with u its lookin a lil bit less organized...

[cycloneye]

Broad elongated low pressure.

[Aquawind]

Convection Consolidation needed

[CrazyC83]

Dropped the chance of development now from 80% to 60%. It definitely still has a chance, but it is farther from imminent now.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 022251
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT FRI JUN 2 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED AROUND 350 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

$$

[feederband]

ABPZ20 KNHC 022251
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT FRI JUN 2 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED AROUND 350 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

$$

[feederband]

Oh wait this is EPAC NEVER MIND THE

[Ivanhater]

Oh wait this is EPAC NEVER MIND THE

[Brent]

Oh wait this is EPAC NEVER MIND THE

LOL

[SouthFloridawx]

[MiamiensisWx]

Looks a bit better and closer to a tropical depression now, but the environment continues to be unfavorable...

Infra-red imagery

Visible imagery

Compared to just earlier, convective organization has improved and consolidated over the center, and banding features have improved. NOW it looks more like a tropical depression.

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

GFDL 18Z brings this system to tropical storm force before moving into land.

[SouthFloridawx]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 022251
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT FRI JUN 2 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED AROUND 350 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

$$

[MiamiensisWx]

Any links to the newest QUICKSCAT?

[SouthFloridawx]

Any links to the newest QUICKSCAT?

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/quikscat/

[MiamiensisWx]

Looks like some isolated 25KT winds near the weak center on QUICKSCAT. I think it is just enough for a quick tropical depression classification now, and convective activity supports it. Who agrees? I think we just have a low-end tropical depression now.

[SouthFloridawx]

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022156
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 350 NM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
NEAR 13N103W WITH ONLY A SLIGHT NW DRIFT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
ELONGATED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NE TOWARDS ACAPULCO. AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THIS AREA NEAR 15N103W AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS INITIATING A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION W OF THE
SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS ALONG THE TROUGH. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED W OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN
60-75 NM OF 12.5N105.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WAS
NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 103W.
THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL TOO
ELONGATED...BUT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HRS.

[StormScanWx]

I think a Tropical Depression will form by tommorow.

[Weatherfreak000]

probabilites are increasing for the invest.