SouthFloridawx's 2006 Hurricane Forecast (1st amateur)

[SouthFloridawx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


This is my first forecast posted at storm2k as an amateur hurricane tracker.

My 2006 Hurricane Forecast (amateur)

This year is predicted by the Meteorology Community to be another above average season.

This year in the Atlantic Basin I expect to see the following numbers.

19 Named Storms
9 Hurricanes
6 Major

2-3 Gulf Coast Landfalling Tropical Storms or Hurricanes
3-4 East Coast Landfalling Tropical Storms or Hurricanes

The main predictors I used in this years forecast were:

1. Above normal Sea Surface Temperatures
2. Low Wind Shear Forecasted in the Atlantic Basin
3. Active Atlantic Hurricane Cycle
4. Neutral Conditions meaning; No El Nino or La Nina
In my hurricane research I have found that a Neutral ENSO conditions can be just as bad for the Atlantic Basin as La Nina Conditions. However La Nina Conditions make things much more favorable for development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean.
5. Active ITCZ

Hopefully we do not see any hurricanes or tropical storms in the areas that were affected last year. These areas are still repairing and trying to get back to "Normal".

Additionally I hope to see communities in hurricane prone areas have hopefully adapted or worked on Hurricane preparation. I guess only time will tell and if we see a land falling cyclone on the Cont. United States we will be able to tell if States are trying to better prepare themselves for this active cycle. I hope that people in hurricane areas better prepare themselves cause there is only so much that the government can do to help them after a storm has passed and it is safe for them to provide help.

I was listening to Talking Tropics on http://ipr365.com , which is hosted by Mike Watkins and they were discussing how we need to plan for the ultimate disaster on your area. They posed a couple of questions that were really interesting.

What if a major hurricane struck and you were out of power and all the conveniences in life for 2 weeks to 3 months. This has happend to areas in the gulf coast affected by Katrina and Rita. I have to be honest as I never really thought about what I would do if that happend to me. What if the property I live in is destroyed or made unlivable? What would I do?

These are some interesting thoughts posed that I don't think people would normally think about and probably should. I don't think these questions are limited to people in hurricane prone areas but, other natural disasters can cause this type of outcome no matter where you live if the Natural Disaster is severe enough.

This is my forecast for the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

[Stratusxpeye]

Congrats on your first forecast. We'll have to wai see if it verifies. I agree with most of the post but the numbers part I would have to say is going to be a little lower. great job.

[JonathanBelles]

looks almost like a pros forecast, but where is the line between pro and amature?

[Brent]

Nice forecast.

[CHRISTY]

nice forcast...active year for us on the eastcoast!

[SouthFloridawx]

I would think that the line is the lack of education and experience which would make me an amateur.

[cycloneye]

For being your first forecast you did very well with a good analyisis of the factors.

[JTD]

Well put South. A good read!

[whereverwx]

I agree. Good job on your first forecast!

[gatorcane]

great job SouthFloridawx! I hope the landfalls don't verify though

[Cookiely]

Great first forecast. I agree with my extremely limited knowledge, three for the GOM and three for the EC.

[SouthFloridawx]

Thanks for the wonderful comments.