92E Invest at EPAC,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[wx247]

SSTs are definitely warm enough.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/pac_anal.gif

[clfenwi]

There's a pretty strong 200 mb anticyclone over this developing system. If it develops it could be a small but potent system. Anybody have SST, Heat Content, and Max Intensity for this region?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 10shr.html

Eastern Pacific Maximum Potential Intensity

Eastern Pacific SST

Eastern Pacific TCHP

[mtm4319]

There's a pretty strong 200 mb anticyclone over this developing system. If it develops it could be a small but potent system. Anybody have SST, Heat Content, and Max Intensity for this region?

SSTs
(almost 30 degrees C)

26-degree isotherm as of 5/28/06
(40-60 meters)

Hurricane Heat Potential
(25-30 kcal/cm2)

[wxmann_91]

Thanks

[JonathanBelles]

what's a hurricane heat potential mean?

[clfenwi]

what's a hurricane heat potential mean?

It's the amount of energy that is available for the hurricane to take from the sea.

It's calculated by taking the average temperature of the water from the surface down to the level where there is 26° C water and multiplying that by the depth of the 26 ° water, the specific heat capacity of water, and the density of water.

So, the higher the value, the more energy that is available for the hurricane.

"Hurricane Heat Potential of the Gulf of Mexico" is the paper that describes this and is pretty comprehensible as far as those sort of things go (it's the second hit for the phrase via Google).

[clfenwi]

Special Feature in the TWD!

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES NEAR 11N103W 1007 MB WAS MOVING NW 10 KT. INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED ORGANIZATION TO THE AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WHICH IS WITHIN 240 NM
OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW...GENERALLY FROM 9N TO 14N
BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. THIS CONVECTION HAS ACQUIRED SOME
BANDING CHARACTERISTICS AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS MAY BE
STARTED WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS ON THIS SYSTEM. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM IS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.

[gatorcane]

Well looking at the system and the SPECIAL FEATURE discussion I would say Bud is going to happen by the weekend and the EPAC will already have 2 storms in 2 weeks...pretty good

[wx247]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT THU JUN 1 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE...IS CENTERED AROUND 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...
AND CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD THE NORTH
OR NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 021010
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT FRI JUN 2 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED AROUND 400 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

$$

[x-y-no]

Definitely looking better organized this morning. Looks very likely to be at least a TD today.

[cycloneye]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.06.2006



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 13.0N 100.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 02.06.2006 13.0N 100.0W WEAK

00UTC 03.06.2006 15.6N 100.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.06.2006 15.2N 99.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.06.2006 15.0N 100.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.06.2006 15.6N 100.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.06.2006 15.5N 98.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.06.2006 14.2N 98.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.06.2006 15.1N 98.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.06.2006 14.8N 98.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.06.2006 14.8N 99.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.06.2006 14.7N 99.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.06.2006 15.1N 99.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE




00:00 UTC UKMET

[James]

When you consider that in the past several years it's taken several weeks for the second system to form after the first it seems weird to have another one forming so quickly after Aletta left.

[HURAKAN]

POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN 36 HOURS

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif

[cycloneye]

I will be out of the net until mid afternoon which means,if this system is upgraded to a TD or a storm anyone can make a new thread with the following titles:

TD Two-E,Advisories,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Tread

TS Bud,Advisories,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[CHRISTY]

Lookin much better this morning....on its way to becomeing our next TD or maybe even a TS by later tonight.

Here's an IR image....

[wx247]

NRL estimates pressure at 1007 mb. Still 20 kts winds however. NE quadrant still looks a little rough, although there appears to be some convection firing there as we speak.

[HURAKAN]

Here we go, there first Dvorak estimates:

02/1145 UTC 10.3N 104.5W T1.0/1.0 92E -- East Pacific Ocean

[CrazyC83]

I'd say this will be TD2-E by this evening.

[CHRISTY]

Guys this system is way on its way on becoming a TS i say by later on tonight.