GFS June 4 - 5 low crossing Cuba

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS 18Z is taking it from Warm Core to a Cold Core out in the atlantic.

[gatorcane]

if anything is going to happen this early in the season the Western and Northwestern Caribbean would be the place.

[bigmike]

How about getting some models that are reliable instead of the Global Fantasy System and Crap and More Crap.

[wxmann_91]

How about getting some models that are reliable instead of the Global Fantasy System and Crap and More Crap.

GFS, though Crap after 180 hr, if the ensembles and other Globals agree up to 120 hr, usually it is correct. The Globals have been very good at pinpointing development in 2005 and so far this year with Aletta. Something to watch, but it'll probably be a weakling.

[Scorpion]

This is extremely interesting. It could cause some nice surf here at least, if not a few outer bands should it develop into something.

[gatorcane]

This is extremely interesting. It could cause some nice surf here at least, if not a few outer bands should it develop into something.

Maybe some surf but the outer bands would be unlikely due to Westerly shear it would run into that would "push" any activity to the east side of the system (we would be on the dry side)

[HURAKAN]

I think Accuweather is following GFS precisely!!!


http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b300/ ... callow.gif

This probably won't be a big deal, but it will need to be watched. This part of the Atlantic Basin is one of the prime locations for tropical development early in the season. Hurricane Agnes was one of the worst storms to come out of this region during June. That storm swirled up the Eastern Seaboard and produced some of the worst flooding ever known from Virginia to upstate New York. This system will never be an Agnes, and it will probably just make a turn out to sea. Before it does that, however, very heavy rainfall could occur over Cuba and then the Bahamas Sunday and Monday.

Accuweather.

[timNms]

I disagree. Most people are on broadband. If you haven't caught on by now, its your loss. I have been on broadband for 5 years now.

Unfortunately for some of us, we have no other options other than dial up...no cable this far out of town, thus no high speed internet hookup...unless you do satelite and then when it rains, you lose signal, or when the wind blows, the dish gets moved out of position. And Bellsouth is too lazy to run fiber optic cables in this area. Of course, they'd get cut every time the county mows the ditches cause they're too lazy to bury them or put them on poles....

Thumbnails makes life easier for those of us who are still in the dark ages

[weatherwindow]

the TAFB is now mentioning the possibility of caribbean development late this weekend, as per the gfs/cmc/nogaps/ukmet solutions...from the 6/2 0200 marine weather discussion: "global models are now in some agreement that some form of low pressure moves northward from the caribbean into the sw north atlantic early next week. this new scenario suggested by the models is quite different from what the models had been suggesting over the past few days as it now appears that the low, if it develops, will be a separate entity unrelated to the front and with origins in the nw caribbean. will wait for updated runs before introducing the low pressure in the forecast as it will significantly alter the wind forecast to much higher ranges for the sw north atlantic for monday and tuesday of next week"...interesting stuff.....rich

[greels]

"interesting stuff....rich"

Yes, indeed. I follow this forum closely and will be watching to see what develops here in the T&C over the next couple of days.

Many Thanks,
Gretchen

[SouthFloridawx]

Interesting indeed.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Very interesting.

Would be funny if we had an early start to the season after some pros have said we wouldn't. Sorry I just see the humor in that though

[CHRISTY]

Lookin interesting right now....

Here's an IR image of the area.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well Jeff Masters said that development in the GOM would be limited due to the sub-tropical jet causing lot's of shear but, that is not limited to the Caribbean as this development is predicted by a consensus of forecast models. Now whatever this low is... tropical/sub-tropical or cold core, remains to be seen yet. However there is a lot of consensus over some type of low pressure forming in the north caribbean sunday through tuesday. Let's see if the models continue to develop something in the model runs the rest of today and I will be more convinced that it may happen.

[HURAKAN]

Interesting, something to keep an eye on. Like I said in May, if something has a shot in developing, it's in the Central or Western Caribbean.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

In 72 hrs, the NHC is forecasting a deepening 1008 mb low pressure system over the Cayman Islands to be moving toward Eastern Cuba. Interesting!

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif

In 72 hrs, the NHC is forecasting a deepening 1008 mb low pressure system over the Cayman Islands to be moving toward Eastern Cuba. Interesting!

very interesting.

[CHRISTY]

wow if this happens this would be incredible....what a way to start the season.models indeed have been saying something might come out of the carribean for a couple of days now.lets what happens with future runs this afternoon.

[jasons2k]

I disagree. Most people are on broadband. If you haven't caught on by now, its your loss. I have been on broadband for 5 years now.

Unfortunately for some of us, we have no other options other than dial up...no cable this far out of town, thus no high speed internet hookup...unless you do satelite and then when it rains, you lose signal, or when the wind blows, the dish gets moved out of position. And Bellsouth is too lazy to run fiber optic cables in this area. Of course, they'd get cut every time the county mows the ditches cause they're too lazy to bury them or put them on poles....

Thumbnails makes life easier for those of us who are still in the dark ages

Hey Tim, I would check into satellite. They are much improved now in keeping a signal. I keep one even when it's pouring outside. I had a good tech set me up and I never lost a signal during Rita. It's very important to have a tech install the system and mount the dish who really knows what he's doing. That can make all the difference. Then, if the weather gets bad enough to blow away your dish, it's no loss b/c you're not gonna have power anyway.

...............................................................

As far as thumbnails, etc., it's not just a courtesy for our members with dialup. It also helps keep the board's servers running smoothly. Remember last year when we had a landfall and the boards would freeze-up? Using thumbnails will help prevent this. I'd much rather click on a thumbnail if it keeps the board from crashing.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif

In 72 hrs, the NHC is forecasting a deepening 1008 mb low pressure system over the Cayman Islands to be moving toward Eastern Cuba. Interesting!

Starting to pick up on it already. I thought it might take longer. All I can say is:

WOW


Hope I'm wrong, but I think it is gonna be one HELL of a season.