'Cone of Concern' changed/replaced for 2006

[spinfan4eva]

This is news to me but may have been posted here b4. Noticed in this years local hurricane preparedness guide.... Looks like they are doing away with track cone and going with wind effects probabillities this year. Like the probabillity of a location getting storm force or hurricane force winds. I like the idea of a wind probabillity "bullseye" but the track is important as well for things like surge flooding-why cant they just have both, I guess that could confuse some though

Here is a copy of the full explanation and example from the local guide



Link to full size image: http://i48.photobucket.com/albums/f206/ ... titled.jpg

--edit-- I dunno, maybe its the same thing, the eye is going to have the highest probabillity of stronges winds of course.

[JonathanBelles]

they're not using the cone anymore???!!!

[Rainband]

This is news to me but may have been posted here b4. Noticed in this years local hurricane preparedness guide.... Looks like they are doing away with track cone and going with wind effects probabillities this year. Like the probabillity of a location getting storm force or hurricane force winds. I like the idea of a wind probabillity "bullseye" but the track is important as well for things like surge flooding-why cant they just have both, I guess that could confuse some though

Here is a copy of the full explanation and example from the local guide



Link to full size image: http://i48.photobucket.com/albums/f206/ ... titled.jpg

--edit-- I dunno, maybe its the same thing, the eye is going to have the highest probabillity of stronges winds of course.

That is from a news station not The NHC.

[bigmike]

It will still be known as "the cone of death" however.

[spinfan4eva]

That is from a news station not The NHC.

True but the news station show the same maps as the NHC just with their logo and different colors. There has always been one color in the cone with a line down the middle for the track. Apparently they are now going to be bullseyes going back to the storms current position so you have to make your own line.

[Rainband]

That is from a news station not The NHC.

True but the news station show the same maps as the NHC just with their logo and different colors. There has always been one color in the cone with a line down the middle for the track. Apparently they are now going to be bullseyes going back to the storms current position so you have to make your own line.

That is a product from the station NOT the NHC

[clfenwi]

I'm reasonably certain there was a topic on this when the Public Information Statement on this came out back in February.

The NHC replaced the Strike Probability Graphic with the
Wind Speed Probability Graphic

[Rainband]

I'm reasonably certain there was a topic on this when the Public Information Statement on this came out back in February.

The NHC replaced the Strike Probability Graphic with the
Wind Speed Probability Graphic

ah. I see At any rate it doesn't really change anything.

[Rainband]

It will be more accurate if anything.

[SouthFloridawx]

It will be more accurate if anything.

Very true... I think this is a much better graphic.

[Brent]

It will be more accurate if anything.

Very true... I think this is a much better graphic.

Yeah... a lot of people(myself included) got too focused on that silly black line in the past.

[CHRISTY]

alot of people were wondering what happend in southflorida when katrina took that jog to the south...People need to realize that we were under that hurricane warning and just because the eye is not forcast to come over youre area u always need to prepare like its heading right over you.because hurricanes are very unpredictable and at the last minute they can jog to left or to the right and u will be under the gun.

[wxman57]

The cone isn't going away, the NHC is just adding new graphics that indicate the probability of 39, 58, and 74 mph wind fields impacting a location - the wind probability maps. Unlike the current probabilities that are based mostly upon climatology and NOT the current forecast track or any confidence in that track, these new probability maps WILL consider the current forecast track and the projected wind radii.

While there will be no accountinig for forecast confidence in NHC's cone, they are going to a 5-year average error cone in 2006. The reason for this is that there have been many advances in track forecasting in recent years and a 10-year cone is just too large now. It doesn't represent modern error as well as a 5-year cone.

[boca]

Isn't there accuracy down to 300 miles at 72 hours. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[wxman57]

Isn't there accuracy down to 300 miles at 72 hours. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

It's actually just under 300 miles at 120 hours now, I believe. Now that is for the 60% probility area. It means that 60% of the time, the track will be accurate to within 300 miles at 120 hours. Of course, 40% of the time the track may go outside that cone. Here's a link to the accuracy graphic:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/fi ... _noTDs.gif

Here's the main errors page:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml?

[boca]

Thanks very helpful.

[mtm4319]

Why did they discontinue this graphic? Too restrictive? Hopefully they'll replace it with something more useful, since I liked that one.

[JonathanBelles]

Why did they discontinue this graphic? Too restrictive? Hopefully they'll replace it with something more useful, since I liked that one.

i liked it too