Jeff Masters says this year's season will have a slow start.

[CHRISTY]

Nothing is going to develope the GFS MODEL is showing around june 12 a strong subtropical jet stream continuing to blow over the gulf of mexico.These strong winds will likely create to much SHEAR for nothing to get going.

sourse...JEFF MASTERS.http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

I would not trust the GFS at 12 days out on the exact positioning of the subtropical jet stream.

Iam taking jeff masters word for it.

[SouthFloridawx]

Nothing is going to develope the GFS MODEL is showing around june 12 a strong subtropical jet stream continuing to blow over the gulf of mexico.These strong winds will likely create to much SHEAR for nothing to get going.

sourse...JEFF MASTERS.http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

He also states if nothing forms in the GOM it will have to be south of cuba. What I got from reading that blog was that the GOM will not have much action cause of the sub tropical jet. But, if there is low shear in the Caribbean that is the most likely place for development in the next few weeks.

[CHRISTY]

Nothing is going to develope the GFS MODEL is showing around june 12 a strong subtropical jet stream continuing to blow over the gulf of mexico.These strong winds will likely create to much SHEAR for nothing to get going.

sourse...JEFF MASTERS.http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

He also states if nothing forms in the GOM it will have to be south of cuba. What I got from reading that blog was that the GOM will not have much action cause of the sub tropical jet. But, if there is low shear in the Caribbean that is the most likely place for development in the next few weeks.

true true.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Nothing is going to develope the GFS MODEL is showing around june 12 a strong subtropical jet stream continuing to blow over the gulf of mexico.These strong winds will likely create to much SHEAR for nothing to get going.

sourse...JEFF MASTERS.http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

I would not trust the GFS at 12 days out on the exact positioning of the subtropical jet stream.

Iam taking jeff masters word for it.

I also took the word of a met in Raleigh when he said we would get an inch of snow (we ended up with 24"), and I also believed the NHC when they said Charley was going to hit Tampa (it hit Punta Gorda). Things can change very quickly, don't forget that. Hopefully he is right, but I have also heard other mets say otherwise, so I will be watching the Gulf closely.

[CrazyC83]

I would not call it slow already we have had nearly a depression. That system that hit texas had at least a partly closed LLC...With a strong MLC. Winds possibly where 25 to 30 mph with heavy rains. Slow not really. It would of not tooken much more time to have formed a fully closed LLC.

Agreed. It was a lot like Allison. It just didn't get the name.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I would not call it slow already we have had nearly a depression. That system that hit texas had at least a partly closed LLC...With a strong MLC. Winds possibly where 25 to 30 mph with heavy rains. Slow not really. It would of not tooken much more time to have formed a fully closed LLC.

Agreed. It was a lot like Allison. It just didn't get the name.

I think that this thing was actually a depression or storm, but was just never recognized by the NHC. Sustained winds of 45mph and gusts to 53mph (as seen at port Aransas) do not happen just everyday. Also, this thing has been over land for awhile now, but still has a decent spin.

[CrazyC83]

I think an early Alberto has two potential places of formation: right off the Gulf Coast (we almost had it yesterday!) above the Subtropical Jet or in the Caribbean close to Central America.

[CrazyC83]

I would not call it slow already we have had nearly a depression. That system that hit texas had at least a partly closed LLC...With a strong MLC. Winds possibly where 25 to 30 mph with heavy rains. Slow not really. It would of not tooken much more time to have formed a fully closed LLC.

Agreed. It was a lot like Allison. It just didn't get the name.

I think that this thing was actually a depression or storm, but was just never recognized by the NHC. Sustained winds of 45mph and gusts to 53mph (as seen at port Aransas) do not happen just everyday. Also, this thing has been over land for awhile now, but still has a decent spin.

Could it be declared "Unnamed (Sub)Tropical Storm One" in the post-analysis?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like the surface low is now just SW of Alice, TX. It also looks like some strong storms are developing around it. As it heads SE (back toward the Gulf), we will need to watch closely for possible development.

Check out this link for the latest radar loop:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

ALSO: It looks like this low may be deepening over land. Winds around Alice, TX have been blowing at 15-25mph sustained over the last few hours (and this is outside of the main T-storm activity).

[Opal storm]

Looks like the surface low is now just SW of Alice, TX. It also looks like some strong storms are developing around it. As it heads SE (back toward the Gulf), we will need to watch closely for possible development.

Check out this link for the latest radar loop:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

ALSO: It looks like this low may be deepening over land. Winds around Alice, TX have been blowing at 15-25mph sustained over the last few hours (and this is outside of the main T-storm activity).

This thing won't give up.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here are some on-land pressures near the low:

Alice, TX = 1012.9mb
Corpus Christi, TX = 1013.2mb
Sarita, TX = about 1012.7mb

Based on these readings (which are not even in the center of the low) I would estimate that this is a 1012mb low.

[bigmike]

Methinks too many of you are -removed-. Enjoy the quiet and the weekend.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The evening post by Joe Bastardi says that he still expects activity in the Gulf the week of June 12th. He says that the african wave train may even get involved this time and with overall good conditions...something may develop.

[CHRISTY]

The evening post by Joe Bastardi says that he still expects activity in the Gulf the week of June 12th. He says that the african wave train may even get involved this time and with overall good conditions...something may develop.

[Rainband]

With all due respect it does seem likeyou want a storm.

[Normandy]

Am I the only one looking at those radars in south texas and seeing absolutely nothing?

[timNms]

Am I the only one looking at those radars in south texas and seeing absolutely nothing?

I'm not seeing any circulation, just lots of rain

[Extremeweatherguy]

It has dissipated a little since last night, but a circulation is still very evident south of Alice, TX.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

No offense people, but Jeff Masters isn't God. Hell he isn't even part of the NHC. He may be good, but his word isn't law.

I for one will wait and see what forms, if anything, in June for myself.

[Lindaloo]

I remember this same darn argument last season. "Oh this season is gonna be dead" yada yada yada. Well, it wasn't dead afterall was it? I hope we do not see any come close to the US this season, zero!