Texas?

[southerngale]

Ok, I've got a couple of questions for the mets or amateurs with knowledge.

In several different forecasts by various people or organizations, many of them are saying Texas has a higher than normal chance of a landfalling hurricane this year. I realize that doesn't mean Texas will get one, but just that the chance is higher than usual. What is the expected setup or conditions that makes everyone think Texas has a higher than normal chance? I'm wondering what to watch for, etc.

Also, since I'm located in Southeast Texas, close to the Louisiana border, could that mean my chances are lower than say, someone along the central Texas coast? I mean, I don't think Louisiana is in the higher than normal risk and I'm oh so close to Louisiana. I'm in no way panicked or anything, but for obvious reasons, just a little nervous this year. We're still recovering from Rita.

[HouTXmetro]

Just my opinion, these landfall forecast are outright confusing. One report says Texas/West Gulf has a higher threat than usual and is more likely to be hit than Louisiana. Then another report says New Orleans has the highest Probability to experience Hurricane force winds. Go figure, I'd be interested in hearing a pro mets opinion also.

[CHRISTY]

From everything i have read so far my opinion is the gulf of mexico will see less activity in 2006.places along the EAST COAST will probably be under the gun this season.

[angelwing]

Just what I wanted to hear

[Pearl River]

It shouldn't matter who's under the gun or how many have been predicted. All it takes is one nasty hurricane to hit land, and it's a bad season. Remeber '92? All there were was 6 named storms, 1 sub-tropical storm, 2 hit land and one of those was Andrew.

[southerngale]

From everything i have read so far my opinion is the gulf of mexico will see less activity in 2006.places along the EAST COAST will probably be under the gun this season.

Well, I was referring to people like Don Sutherland, the Independent Wx outlook, Accuweather, Hurricane Alley, Dr. Gray, etc. and their various outlooks, steering patterns, etc.

I'm not questioning whether the East Coast will be under the gun. This thread was in hopes the mets or one of our analysts/amateurs could answer the questions I asked above about Texas, not what area was under the gun more than another area.

[jasons2k]

hey Kelly, the outlook released from Independent today actually has a good writeup on Texas. The reasoning in their article makes sense. Based on the parameters they are looking at, they expect a protecting ridge to be located over the NE/NC Gulf Coast which would, in theory anyway, tend to steer storms more towards the west to Texas/Mexico. But take it with a grain of salt. This is exactly the setup we had for Rita but she turned when the shortwave up north picked her up.

[CHRISTY]

It shouldn't matter who's under the gun or how many have been predicted. All it takes is one nasty hurricane to hit land, and it's a bad season. Remeber '92? All there were was 6 named storms, 1 sub-tropical storm, 2 hit land and one of those was Andrew.

i lost my roof and all my furniture during andrew...it was truly a night i will never forget.

[skysummit]

I really don't like those landfall forecasts to begin with, but I would like some input on pro mets also. Is Texas in for it and why.

[BayouVenteux]

hey Kelly, the outlook released from Independent today actually has a good writeup on Texas. The reasoning in their article makes sense. Based on the parameters they are looking at, they expect a protecting ridge to be located over the NE/NC Gulf Coast which would, in theory anyway, tend to steer storms more towards the west to Texas/Mexico. But take it with a grain of salt. This is exactly the setup we had for Rita but she turned when the shortwave up north picked her up.

Excellent point jschlitz, and it's that very example that's the one little caveat in the back of my mind keeping me from getting too giddily overconfident about what I've read thus far in the handful of early season forecasts with regard to Louisiana.

[southerngale]

Thanks for the explanation, jschlitz. I had read the comments about Independent Wx mentioning Texas, but haven't read the outlook myself yet. I will later, but knew I'd still want our mets and analysts comments since I've heard Texas mentioned several times.

And yes, I totally agree with the grain of salt comment and have made comments to that effect in other threads predicting landfall areas. After seeing Don Sutherland mention Texas as a higher risk though, I decided I wanted to more and what's leading to that thinking. Of course I realize steering patterns at any given time a storm is out there can change everything. I just like to learn the why behind these predictions.

Yeah, they were thinking Rita would be a landfall near the TX/MX border at first and it ended up all the way up the coast to the TX/LA border.

[HoustonTexas]

Seems like meteorologists and amateurs both tend to predict the hurricane season being worst for the area they are located in.

[southerngale]

Seems like meteorologists and amateurs both tend to predict the hurricane season being worst for the area they are located in.

Like who? I don't even know where most of these companies are located, but they're predicting several areas and that usually varies each year, so I'm not sure I agree.

The only amateur/analyst I listed above was Don Sutherland and he lives in New York, not one of the areas he predicted.

Maybe you could give us some examples as I could have just missed it.

[BayouVenteux]

Seems like meteorologists and amateurs both tend to predict the hurricane season being worst for the area they are located in.

I understand Jason Moreland of independentwx.com is a New Orleanian, so after what he's been through, I'm certain he doesn't fall in that category.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Another thing to keep in mind is that if a large storm were to hit Central TX the effects would be felt as far north as the TX/LA border. It seems like in recent seasons the storms have been getting bigger too. Just something to think about.

[Swimdude]

Yeah, they were thinking Rita would be a landfall near the TX/MX border at first and it ended up all the way up the coast to the TX/LA border.

What about the 3 days prior to landfall that they were predicting Galveston as the landfall spot... That changed too. Rita was just one of those storms that the NHC didn't do a particularly great job of predicting its path.

[cajungal]

I watched accuweather today. They have Texas in the red. And SW Louisiana almost all the way over to central Louisiana is in the red which is high risk. Louisiana and MS is in the yellow moderate risk. I live 60 miles southwest of New Orleans and it still not a complete sign of relief. Not saying that Texas is definitly going to get hit at all because it not written in stone. But, when Rita hit the TX/LA border, everything south of Houma was under 12 feet of water. All these people are still living in FEMA trailors. All from a storm that hit 200 miles away. All we need is a glancing blow here and getting hit from the west puts us on the dirty side. Morgan City is only 25 miles due west of my town and when Andrew came through we had winds well over 100 mph.

[skysummit]

Yes CG....if Texas and Western Louisiana is in the Red, that means we're going to get one hell of a storm surge if a storm does strike there. Rita brings back bad memories on what happened from a storm so far away.

[george_r_1961]

From everything i have read so far my opinion is the gulf of mexico will see less activity in 2006.places along the EAST COAST will probably be under the gun this season.

If we get hit this year im moving. We can barely handle a Cat 1 here; anything more than that would be complete chaos

[cajungal]

I am with you George, we can't even handle a tropical storm here in Terrebonne Parish. Tropical Storm Bill only had 60 mph winds and when it hit Houma, the levees broke and flooded Montegut. Just south of Houma was under 8 feet of water just from a tropical storm. Lili hit nearly 60 miles away at least and once again the same places were under water.