Jeff Masters says this year's season will have a slow start.

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CHRISTY

Jeff Masters says this year's season will have a slow start.

#1 Postby CHRISTY » Thu Jun 01, 2006 11:56 am

Jeff Masters believes the 2006 Hurricane season will start of slow....

Here is the link to his blog!
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Leave comments....christy :wink:

SHEAR WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS....
Last edited by CHRISTY on Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Scorpion

#2 Postby Scorpion » Thu Jun 01, 2006 11:58 am

Too bad :(
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#3 Postby feederband » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:00 pm

Scorpion wrote:Too bad :(


Yeah why is everyone trying to shear on our parade... :lol:
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#4 Postby skysummit » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:02 pm

Yea, it does look like the shear is around to stay for a couple to a few more weeks. I guess we're still in "practice mode".
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#5 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:14 pm

Yeah to bad we can't get at least some tropical storms to track. But hey if the season starts around mid june once I get back on thats better for me.
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Opal storm

#6 Postby Opal storm » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:16 pm

This is actually normal for June.
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CHRISTY

#7 Postby CHRISTY » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:22 pm

Opal storm wrote:This is actually normal for June.


yes it is....usually june and part of july are quiet times.but since we have been anything but normal everyone is on the edge. :wink:
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#8 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:24 pm

We came pretty close with the texas system yesterday. But it went inland.
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#9 Postby angelwing » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:29 pm

You know, a slow start...makes me afraid that there could be a ton of storms all hit at once :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#10 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:31 pm

Joe Bastardi thinks there will be another chance of development in the Gulf after June 10th.
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CHRISTY

#11 Postby CHRISTY » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:31 pm

angelwing wrote:You know, a slow start...makes me afraid that there could be a ton of storms all hit at once :eek: :eek: :eek:


interesting thought...could be.
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#12 Postby skysummit » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:33 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Joe Bastardi thinks there will be another chance of development in the Gulf after June 10th.


For once I think I need to agree with him....since it seems like every 10 days or so we get a disturbance in the Gulf with each one looking better and better.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#13 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:33 pm

I would not call it slow already we have had nearly a depression. That system that hit texas had at least a partly closed LLC...With a strong MLC. Winds possibly where 25 to 30 mph with heavy rains. Slow not really. It would of not tooken much more time to have formed a fully closed LLC.
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#14 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:35 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I would not call it slow already we have had nearly a depression. That system that hit texas had at least a partly closed LLC...With a strong MLC. Winds possibly where 25 to 30 mph with heavy rains. Slow not really. It would of not tooken much more time to have formed a fully closed LLC.
yeah the radar loop near corpus and alice showed a very clearly defined circulation just inland. If this thing would have had 12-24 more hours it could have become a depression or storm for sure.
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#15 Postby feederband » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:35 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I would not call it slow already we have had nearly a depression. That system that hit texas had at least a partly closed LLC...With a strong MLC. Winds possibly where 25 to 30 mph with heavy rains. Slow not really. It would of not tooken much more time to have formed a fully closed LLC.


Yeah but after last year if there isn't at least a Cat 3 out there were kind of boRED....May we should have a best of S2K show while were waiting.. :lol:
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#16 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:37 pm

Last June had 2 named system with one undeclared depression into the outterbanks. So it was not that active last June. July on the other hand went boom!
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CHRISTY

#17 Postby CHRISTY » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:39 pm

Nothing is going to develope the GFS MODEL is showing around june 12 a strong subtropical jet stream continuing to blow over the gulf of mexico.These strong winds will likely create to much SHEAR for nothing to get going.

sourse...JEFF MASTERS.http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
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#18 Postby southerngale » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:40 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Last June had 2 named system with one undeclared depression into the outterbanks. So it was not that active last June. July on the other hand went boom!

That's pretty active for June in my book!
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#19 Postby skysummit » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:40 pm

Hey....at least we can track our TEST run right now :D It's up to 65kts.....

Image
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#20 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:43 pm

CHRISTY wrote:Nothing is going to develope the GFS MODEL is showing around june 12 a strong subtropical jet stream continuing to blow over the gulf of mexico.These strong winds will likely create to much SHEAR for nothing to get going.

sourse...JEFF MASTERS.http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
I would not trust the GFS at 12 days out on the exact positioning of the subtropical jet stream.

Also: if you look at the GFS for that time period...it shows a huge blob (possibly developed) of moisture heading into TX on the 12th.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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