Closed low forming east of Port Mansfield Thread #2

[Air Force Met]

So Air Force Met there is a chance of a td or minumal ts to form?

I never say not a chance...because in weather anything can happen...but the chance is very slim. Pressures are pretty high and there is no sfc slow ATM. It's still an upper level low...stacked all the way up to 200 MB...so it's not really tropical.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Surface circulation moving north southeast of Port Lavaca.

I'm not so sure there is a sfc circulation. I see a sharp inverted trof but don't see any steady westerly winds...well...non-convective west winds that is.

Good MLC on radar though.

Close..

[KFDM Meteorologist]

You really could call this thing a Depression, either way your getting flooding rains..

[drezee]

Surface circulation moving north southeast of Port Lavaca.

I'm not so sure there is a sfc circulation. I see a sharp inverted trof but don't see any steady westerly winds...well...non-convective west winds that is.

Good MLC on radar though.

Close..

KFDM, I am not questioning that you are a pro met or anything, but you seem to be jumping the gun a bit more than the other Pro Mets on the board.

[JonathanBelles]

You really could call this thing a Depression, either way your getting flooding rains..

do you think the nHC will recognise it?

[Stormcenter]

Surface circulation moving north southeast of Port Lavaca.

I'm not so sure there is a sfc circulation. I see a sharp inverted trof but don't see any steady westerly winds...well...non-convective west winds that is.

Good MLC on radar though.

Close..

KFDM, I am not questioning that you are a pro met or anything, but you seem to be jumping the gun a bit more than the other Pro Mets on the board.

I don't see nothing wrong with so called "jumping" the gun. It's his opinion.

[tgenius]

Aren't the requirements for a depression 30mph sustained winds? Is this system doing that right now?

[Johnny]

Correct me if I'm but a depression is classified when we have a closed low pressure system and sustained winds of 30 mph which is not the case as of now.....just a mid level circulation. The rains involved can easily rival the rains that are seen in tropical depressions or storms which is what I think KFDM Met is referring to?

[wxman57]

I see no evidence of a circulation. It's a cold-core low in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. There is a weak surface trof reflection. Chance of tropical development is very low, but not completely non-existent as AF Met indicated. Here's a shot of the TX coast with ship/land/buoy reports plotted:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/nwgulf.gif

[wxman57]

Correct me if I'm but a depression is classified when we have a closed low pressure system and sustained winds of 30 mph which is not the case as of now.....just a mid level circulation. The rains involved can easily rival the rains that are seen in tropical depressions or storms which is what I think KFDM Met is referring to?

You are correct.

[jasons2k]

As far as rain goes, this is not looking good. A moisture plume extends into the Gulf almost at the same axis as I-45. Convection to the north is increasing again and filling-in. Convection is moving in from the south with vortex that broke off. Might be a long night here in Houston.

[HouTXmetro]

As far as rain goes, this is not looking good. A moisture plume extends into the Gulf almost at the same axis as I-45. Convection to the north is increasing again and filling-in. Convection is moving in from the south with vortex that broke off. Might be a long night here in Houston.

I see, fortunatley it appears their will be a lull in the action so maybe the enough water will drain. It also looks as if the overall system is fizzling in intensity.

[Air Force Met]

You really could call this thing a Depression, either way your getting flooding rains..

I disagree...you really couldn't. It doesn't have a closed surface wind circulation about a defined center and it's not being maintained by latent heat release...since it is a vertically stacked cold core low with a sfc trof reflection.

You are getting the rains of a TD...and it is tropical in that sense....but that is the only sense in which it is tropical. Take a look at the 200 and 250 mb...the low is sitting right on top of the sfc trof.

[Aquawind]

Well Said AFM..

[KatDaddy]

Not even near a depression. Just an upper low spinning in tropical moisture over the TX Coast.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Not jumping on the gun, i've just seen this happen to many times, same setup. I know what the winds have to be to be classified as a Depression. All i'm saying is Rainfall is the main event with a Depression anyway. I've been through alot of TD's and wind was NEVER a factor. Some areas have seen more rain with this than with a Depression or TS. Just my opinion.

[Hurricaneman]

Id say if it sits and spins, and the upper low moves away, it could have a slight chance, the upper low and land are the only inhibiting factors I can see

[brunota2003]

Not jumping on the gun, i've just seen this happen to many times, same setup. I know what the winds have to be to be classified as a Depression. All i'm saying is Rainfall is the main event with a Depression anyway. I've been through alot of TD's and wind was NEVER a factor. Some areas have seen more rain with this than with a Depression or TS. Just my opinion.

No...I know you are a met...but even in TDs wind is a MAJOR factor...with all of the rainfall you know how easy it would be for ONLY TD force winds to blow trees over and into roadways or peoples homes? Those trees do represent a major factor and can kill people instantly as they hit the cars or homes the people are in...I am not doing that only because you are a met...I will do it to everyone...so I'm not picking on you just because you are a met
Also, the wind may not of been a factor in the Tds you went thru...regardless it is a major factor...as is rain...

[Portastorm]

I can't believe we have 19 pages now on a system that has yet to be classified by the National Hurricane Center as anything.


Wait a minute ... yeah, I can believe it.

[southerngale]

Not jumping on the gun, i've just seen this happen to many times, same setup. I know what the winds have to be to be classified as a Depression. All i'm saying is Rainfall is the main event with a Depression anyway. I've been through alot of TD's and wind was NEVER a factor. Some areas have seen more rain with this than with a Depression or TS. Just my opinion.

No...I know you are a met...but even in TDs wind is a MAJOR factor...with all of the rainfall you know how easy it would be for ONLY TD force winds to blow trees over and into roadways or peoples homes? Those trees do represent a major factor and can kill people instantly as they hit the cars or homes the people are in...I am not doing that only because you are a met...I will do it to everyone...so I'm not picking on you just because you are a met
Also, the wind may not of been a factor in the Tds you went thru...regardless it is a major factor...as is rain...

I have to disagree, brunota. A tropical depression has winds of 38mph or less and I've never heard of 30 to 38 mph winds blowing down trees. We get gusts in the 30's and even 40's during strong thunderstorms sometimes and I can't recall a tree ever falling with those winds. Maybe a few limbs and leaves scattered about. IMO, a TD's threat is rainfall, not wind. I'd say the same thing for a mild tropical storm as well. At some point, the winds become a factor in a tropical storm, but I don't know exactly what strength that would be.

Allison was a tropical storm and the winds were no factor whatsoever, just torrential rainfall. I could give many more examples of tropical storms where winds were no issue, and I know of no TD's where winds caused significant damage.