Closed low forming east of Port Mansfield Thread #2

#141 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed May 31, 2006 2:11 pm

This is really looking interesting and as someone else just posted it is not "currently" moving inland.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

CHRISTY · #142 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 31, 2006 2:12 pm

Stormcenter wrote:This is really looking interesting and as someone else just posted it is not "currently" moving inland.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

take a look at the radar loops i posted....

Stratusxpeye · #143 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Wed May 31, 2006 2:12 pm

CHRISTY wrote:u guys saw the radar loops i posted!

Yes I have of course along with all the other important data needed to make a statement about this weather system. Neat system and all and something interesting to watch but nothing forming into TS OR hurricane.

CHRISTY · #144 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 31, 2006 2:14 pm

my opinion all along has been that the upper level low near by is probably what is the thunderstorms to fire up...

#145 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed May 31, 2006 2:17 pm

CHRISTY wrote:u guys saw the radar loops i posted!

Yes I did but all I see is a rotation type pattern but no definite inland movement. IMO Now I'm no radar expert so of course I could be wrong.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #146 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed May 31, 2006 2:24 pm

Here is my option...It is becoming better defined/organized but its half inland. The Convection has increased markly over the last 30 minutes to a hour. In quickscats show that there is a partly closed surface cirulation. But buoy to the south still shows that it is open. If it where to stall it would have a chance at developing. If it where to have formed 100 miles to the east it would of been a tropical storm. No quastion. Over all outflow because of the upper low to the north and northwest looks very faverable.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #147 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed May 31, 2006 2:37 pm

Any ways we are now getting our normal May close call. :wink:

#148 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Wed May 31, 2006 2:40 pm

Surface circulation moving north southeast of Port Lavaca.

#149 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed May 31, 2006 2:41 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Surface circulation moving north southeast of Port Lavaca.

How fast is it moving?

Stratusxpeye · #150 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Wed May 31, 2006 2:41 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Any ways we are now getting our normal May close call.

Agree

#151 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed May 31, 2006 2:50 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Surface circulation moving north southeast of Port Lavaca.

I'm not so sure there is a sfc circulation. I see a sharp inverted trof but don't see any steady westerly winds...well...non-convective west winds that is.

Good MLC on radar though.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #152 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed May 31, 2006 2:51 pm

A see trough to hate to say it...But if it did stall it would close off durning the next 12 hours or so. Got to go

Thunder44 · #153 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed May 31, 2006 2:53 pm

You can see the circulation center getting more organized just south of San Antonio Bay on this radar loop.

http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kcrp.shtml

Edited

#154 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed May 31, 2006 3:04 pm

Thunder44 wrote:You can see the circulation center getting more organized just south of San Antonio Bay on this radar loop.

http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kcrp.shtml

Edit

But you can't see any sfc circulation on that radar loop. the height of the radar beam, where that ciculation center is, is about 7000-8000' AGL. That's the mid levels.

Remember "line of sight" when looking at radars.

#155 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed May 31, 2006 3:07 pm

Will the system continue inland or get back into the GOM?

#156 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed May 31, 2006 3:14 pm

My concern isn't for a TS to form (I highly doubt it) - but rather it appears to be moving towards the north, which will put Houston in a very bad position overnight. Right now, Brazoria County is in line to get slammed for several hours.

#157 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed May 31, 2006 3:15 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Will the system continue inland or get back into the GOM?

Looks like it hangs around another 24 hours and then slowly moves SW as the ridge to the west builds over the rockies.

#158 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Wed May 31, 2006 3:16 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Will the system continue inland or get back into the GOM?

The Corpus NWS discussion issued in the last hour says inland...slowly.

SFC TROF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO THE EAST OF THE TROF ROTATING N AND NE INLAND NORTH OF SEADRIFT. A FEW WEAK-SHRA'S ARE DVLPG INLAND ON THE W SIDE OF THE TROF...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS OF YET. THE MODELS SHOW THE PRECIP SPREADING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE TROF AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DRIFT W. FOR TONIGHT HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH POPS ACROSS THE NE WITH A SHARP DROP IN POPS S AND W. ALSO HAVE CHANGED WORDING FOR THE LOWER POPS TO -SHRA'S FOR TONIGHT AS AM NOT EXPECTING THUNDER FOR THOSE AREAS. KEPT THE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THU AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVR MEXICO SHOULD RETROGRADE W IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE MOVG ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE UPPER LOW OVR THE WESTERN GULF TO RETREAT W TO SW.

#159 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed May 31, 2006 3:17 pm

jschlitz wrote:My concern isn't for a TS to form (I highly doubt it) - but rather it appears to be moving towards the north, which will put Houston in a very bad position overnight. Right now, Brazoria County is in line to get slammed for several hours.

Yeah...looks like we have a vortmax breaking off and headed inland.

no advance · #160 Postby **no advance** » Wed May 31, 2006 3:21 pm

So Air Force Met there is a chance of a td or minumal ts to form?

Closed low forming east of Port Mansfield Thread #2

Who is online