Closed low forming east of Port Mansfield Thread #2

[no advance]

What circ. center? Where? BOC?

[skysummit]

What circ. center? Where? BOC?

Good Question....where Houston?

[CHRISTY]

Its going to run out of room to even have a chance,take a look at this visible loop....

[Extremeweatherguy]

looks like it is already over land. If it only had one more day it could have become something!

[MiamiensisWx]

The area of convection off Matagorda Bay looks like it may have a better chance than the southern end of convection in the Bay of Campeche, since the area off Matagorda is in a better environment and shows more signs of slight development than the southern end in the Bay of Campeche which is under a less favorable synoptic environment. By the way, it looks like a low may be trying to develop in the area off Matagorda on visible imagery. Does anyone notice that?

Also, the possible developing low off Matagorda looks to be separating from the Bay of Campeche blob.

[HURAKAN]

It looks interesting, we have seen many subtropical storms in the past develop in this area and move toward the Florida Panhandle. Let see what happens!!!

By the way, in some way it reminds me of Allison in 2001!

[MiamiensisWx]

By the way, I am referring to Matagorda Bay, Texas!

[MiamiensisWx]

It looks interesting, we have seen many subtropical storms in the past develop in this area and move toward the Florida Panhandle. Let see what happens!!!

By the way, in some way it reminds me of Allison in 2001!

Although I am not crazy on the development chances, some of the synoptics have improved since yesterday, favoring slight development a bit more, especially for the possible developing low off Matagorda Bay.

By the way, can anyone post the buoy reports for the area around Matagorda (just offshore)? I think a weak to slight circulation (possibly at the surface) may be there.

[skysummit]

By the way, I am referring to Matagorda Bay, Texas!

I see what you're talkinga bout CVW. Here are the 14Z surface plots for the western gulf. Not all of them are in yet.

[MiamiensisWx]

Looking at that plot, I see a slight west wind at one of the buoys due east of Matagorda. That's what I am talking about, skysummit.

[MiamiensisWx]

Can someone post the links to the new NOAA satellite pages for the Atlantic and Pacific?

[wxman22]

This looks VERY similar to Allison.....

[skysummit]

Looking at that plot, I see a slight west wind at one of the buoys due east of Matagorda. That's what I am talking about, skysummit.

You can kind of see banding forming in the central gulf that seems to be rotation northward.

[MiamiensisWx]

This looks VERY similar to Allison.....

That's exactly where I think the possible low is, and it is exactly where the Matagorda buoy has just reported a light west wind and a pressure around 1012 millibars.

[wxman22]

Here it is: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex.html

[wxman22]

Here it is: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex.html

[MiamiensisWx]

You can kind of see banding forming in the central gulf that seems to be rotation northward.

I agree, and I think the parameters for slow development have improved a bit for this part of the system, and I think this is the part to watch.

[JonathanBelles]

i didnt realize that allison was retired and went over NO as a td but then strenghtened over land. hopefully we get some rain out of this.

[MiamiensisWx]

Here it is: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex.html

Thanks. I think this Matagorda system resembles Allison now due to the synoptics (which are favoring development a bit more now). In fact, look at the shear environment. Shear is decreasing over the system and is down to 20KT. With not much shear nearby (which usually precedes an unfavorable increase in shear, as seen with Aletta), it is NOT the case with this system. In fact, shear maps indicate lower and decreasing shear is moving into the area. This environment is now more similar to that which spawned Allison. Click here for the shear values. See what I mean? Also, it is a rather moist environment. Even if slow development does not occur, the potential is there, and this will only bring more mousture and rain over an area that doesn't need any more (Houston area and surrounding area). Just great.

[skysummit]

You can kind of see banding forming in the central gulf that seems to be rotation northward.

I agree, and I think the parameters for slow development have improved a bit for this part of the system, and I think this is the part to watch.

I agree...currently there's 20 - 30kts of shear overhead, however, it is decreasing and conditions are becoming better.