GOM BLOB ALERT 5-29-06

[GalvestonDuck]

Wow, what a change -- not the usual "people shouldn't live on barrier islands" argument...this time, it's move inland. Color me surprised!

Ditto what skysummit and jschlitz said.

[skysummit]

Here are the latest surface plots for the blobby area:

[Steve]

>>If I remember correctly, dry air kept it from actually re-developing again.

No. It redeveloped after looping back down into the Gulf of Mexico and hit Louisiana. I can't remember if it was TD Allison or TS Allison though.

Steve

[Stratosphere747]

>>If I remember correctly, dry air kept it from actually re-developing again.

No. It redeveloped after looping back down into the Gulf of Mexico and hit Louisiana. I can't remember if it was TD Allison or TS Allison though.

Steve

It never redeveloped into a truly tropical system. I believe it was classified as sub-tropical.

Must admit that this "blob" would get interesting if it held out a few more days.

[jasons2k]

Houston got very lucky dodging Rita. A strong hurricane would flood out Houston again and could put in the dark for a month or longer. The blackout could kill people as they suffer with no AC. Just the threat of another storm will kill another 100 or so people as they try to evacuate. It's a dangerous place to live. Houston is even at major risk from tropical storms.

It's not any more dangerous than any other place on the coast. Or California. Or Oklahoma City. Pick your poison

If anything, it's a bit safer because we are a bit inland and we have an excellent infrastructure in place - at least as compared to many other places.

Yes, it is. Houston faces the constant threat of flooding rains, power outages and hurricanes. Unlike the cooler SoCal coast Houston residents will suffer terribly if the AC goes without power for very long. One bad heat wave combined with a power outage and thousands will die. Remember what happened in Europe about three years ago. 30K to 50K people died from a heat wave. Other cities also have a heat wave risk but Houston has a massive population and sits close to the coast where a Hurricane could easily knock out power to millions of residents. Houston's population size also creates extra risk during evacuations -- like the 100 or so that were killed when everyone tried to leave during Rita.

Miami. Tampa. New York. Jacksonville. I don't consider Houston any more dangerous than any of those other places - so I don't know why Houston is being singled-out. Like I've said, at least we are a good ~50 miles inland. I live in the northern suburbs and I live about 80 miles from the coast. I'm also not anywhere near a floodplain or tributary so I'm not that worried about flooding rains. And any of those places would toast without A/C. Have you ever been to Manhattan in July? For that matter, have you even been to Houston??

Yes, Houston got slammed with Allison. That was also 28" of rain. It could have happened anywhere. Look at what happened in Pinellas County, FL recently with 5" of rain. Same thing happens in South Florida when they get a good soaker. No amount of urban planning and infrastructure can overcome that amount of water in such a short timeframe. Not anywhere.

One nice thing aboout Houston is that we have learned many lessons of the past, including the traffic situation from Rita, and I know they have been very, very PROACTIVE at solving the problems and preparing for this upcoming hurricane season. Just take a look at the agenda for tonight's hurricane conference. I have not seen this level of committment in any of the other places I've lived. When Greta Van Susteran was reporting from the Astrodome after Katrina, she called Houston the "most efficient" city she has ever seen.

In summary, I disagree with the original statement that Houston is a "dangerous place to live". Sure, we have risks, just like any place else. But I think we've taken some proactive measures to ensure that the aftermath goes more smoothly than many other places.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Houston got very lucky dodging Rita. A strong hurricane would flood out Houston again and could put in the dark for a month or longer. The blackout could kill people as they suffer with no AC. Just the threat of another storm will kill another 100 or so people as they try to evacuate. It's a dangerous place to live. Houston is even at major risk from tropical storms.

It's not any more dangerous than any other place on the coast. Or California. Or Oklahoma City. Pick your poison

If anything, it's a bit safer because we are a bit inland and we have an excellent infrastructure in place - at least as compared to many other places.

Yes, it is. Houston faces the constant threat of flooding rains, power outages and hurricanes. Unlike the cooler SoCal coast Houston residents will suffer terribly if the AC goes without power for very long. One bad heat wave combined with a power outage and thousands will die. Remember what happened in Europe about three years ago. 30K to 50K people died from a heat wave. Other cities also have a heat wave risk but Houston has a massive population and sits close to the coast where a Hurricane could easily knock out power to millions of residents. Houston's population size also creates extra risk during evacuations -- like the 100 or so that were killed when everyone tried to leave during Rita.

Miami. Tampa. New York. Jacksonville. I don't consider Houston any more dangerous than any of those other places - so I don't know why Houston is being singled-out. Like I've said, at least we are a good ~50 miles inland. I live in the northern suburbs and I live about 80 miles from the coast. I'm also not anywhere near a floodplain or tributary so I'm not that worried about flooding rains. And any of those places would toast without A/C. Have you ever been to Manhattan in July? For that matter, have you even been to Houston??

Yes, Houston got slammed with Allison. That was also 28" of rain. It could have happened anywhere. Look at what happened in Pinellas County, FL recently with 5" of rain. Same thing happens in South Florida when they get a good soaker. No amount of urban planning and infrastructure can overcome that amount of water in such a short timeframe. Not anywhere.

One nice thing aboout Houston is that we have learned many lessons of the past, including the traffic situation from Rita, and I know they have been very, very PROACTIVE at solving the problems and preparing for this upcoming hurricane season. Just take a look at the agenda for tonight's hurricane conference. I have not seen this level of committment in any of the other places I've lived. When Greta Van Susteran was reporting from the Astrodome after Katrina, she called Houston the "most efficient" city she has ever seen.

In summary, I disagree with the original statement that Houston is a "dangerous place to live". Sure, we have risks, just like any place else. But I think we've taken some proactive measures to ensure that the aftermath goes more smoothly than many other places.

I agree with you on the fact that Houston is probably no more dangerous than any other major city, but I disagree with you on the aspect of the distance from the coast. I consider Galveston Bay to be the true edge of the coast (because it can be warm enough to support a hurricane). I have seen hurricanes maintain themselves over lakes before, so Galveston Bay would definitely be sufficient. If a storm were to come right up Galveston Bay, then Houston is only 10 or so miles inland and NW Houston is only 20-30 miles inland. Even if the storm did not come up Galveston Bay, the downtown area is still only about 40 miles from the coast and NW Houston is less than 70 miles away. These distances are close enough that major damage would result during a major hurricane strike. A Cat. 4 landfall up the bay would probably result in 100-120mph winds downtown with gusts to 150-160mph, and in the NW suburbs, winds would likely be sustained at 90-110mph with gusts to 135-150mph. This kind of scenario would be insane for the city and widespread damage would result. To compare, during Wilma Miami saw 80-85mph sustained winds and gusts to 110mph...during Charley Orlando saw 79mph sustained winds and gusts to 105mph...during Rita Beaumont saw 75-80mph sustained winds and gusts to 105mph. The damage that we all saw from these cities would be far less in comparison with what would happen to Houston. The same can be said if a storm hit any other major city, however, and this is why Houston is not safer or less safe than any other major city. Another thing to consider is the many variables that can occur during a storm. The size, strength, speed, etc. can all make a difference in the effects that any cities see. A slower storm means more wind for the coast and more inland rain; a faster storm means less rain and more inland wind. No place within 200 miles of the coast is "safe".

[jasons2k]

If a hurricane came up Galveston Bay, downtown would be on the west side of the eye and most likely outside of the eyewall, depending on the storm's size and exact track. The surge would be outbound, not inbound, from this direction.

To use the analogy that downtown is 10 miles from the shoreline (or in this case, the bayshore), the storm would have to be traveling almost due north and then make a 90* left turn along I-10. Theoretically possible but not likely.

[HouTXmetro]

If a hurricane came up Galveston Bay, downtown would be on the west side of the eye and most likely outside of the eyewall, depending on the storm's size and exact track. The surge would be outbound, not inbound, from this direction.

To use the analogy that downtown is 10 miles from the shoreline (or in this case, the bayshore), the storm would have to be traveling almost due north and then make a 90* left turn along I-10. Theoretically possible but not likely.

Why not? The storm could easily be headed up the bay and then hit blocking High. Just as Claudette did a few years back, headed N-NW then ran dead into the High that pushed it immediately west.

[skysummit]

Bor this thread is shot....

[HouTXmetro]

Bor this thread is shot....

lol, back to the blob. It appears the blob may have zapped some of the energy away from Alleta, whatever her name is. Slight banding features appear to be forming on the northern portions of the blob.

[HurricaneGirl]

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satrgnlloop.master.pl?orleans&type=vis

[Weatherfreak14]

May I ask what is the possiblity of this developing. Because local Matorligist says NHS says that there is something to come out of this blob in the next few days movin into flordia and out into the atlantic.

[feederband]

May I ask what is the possiblity of this developing. Because local Matorligist says NHS says that there is something to come out of this blob in the next few days movin into flordia and out into the atlantic.

[JonathanBelles]

May I ask what is the possiblity of this developing. Because local Matorligist says NHS says that there is something to come out of this blob in the next few days movin into flordia and out into the atlantic.

come to papa

[tailgater]

I can see this thing refiring again south of TX/La. border with a little better chance since it would be far east away from the UUL. what do yall think?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

This is the time of night when the thunderstorms weaken (8-12:00 AM). We'll see what happens toward daybreak.

[tgenius]

KFDM- MY question is if thunderstorms weaken during that time, how do the hurricanes grow stronger overnight? I know the water is warm, but Isn't the sunlight a catalyst for growth too?

[Normandy]

^ Maybe because this isn't a tropical system

[CHRISTY]

remember persistance is the key!

[BLHutch]

What makes Houston a dangerous place to live isn't the weather. It is the bad drivers!!!!!



Brady